Donald Trump isn’t yet back in the White House — but his Iranian policy is clear. Like he did in his first term, he’ll pursue a vigorous policy against Tehran, hampering its nuclear programme and backing its rivals across the Middle East. If history is anything to go by, meanwhile, sanctions will be vital to this strategy, especially those targeting an Iranian oil sector worth billions of dollars each year.
But if renewed US action could hamstring the ayatollahs’ economy, sanctions are already being undermined: and not just by the Islamic Republic. I’ve obtained documents from confidential sources showing the illicit export of Iranian oil, a scheme involving foreign banks and shipping firms. And if these activities are sure to bolster a brutal regime in need of hard cash, they’re also funding chaos right across the region, even as shutting off the tap could yet spark a geopolitical revolution.
Iranian oil is big business. In 2023, total sales of its petrochemical products were worth some $70 billion. Listen to the regime, and it heralds this activity as a source of civilian prosperity. But dig a little deeper and things soon get murky. One of the major companies behind the Iranian oil sector is the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). According to the US government, this state-owned firm is an “agent or affiliate” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the organisation that funds and controls Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Nefarious activities like these doubtless explain why the Islamic Republic is so worried about Trump’s second presidency. “I think they’re scared,” says Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran programme at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “Iran tried to kill Trump and failed,” he continues, referring to an alleged plot on US soil. “And it knows that after the inauguration, it can expect a return to the policy of “maximum pressure” Trump applied in his first term — with potentially devastating political and economic consequences.”
Certainly, the numbers show the relatively easy ride Iran has enjoyed under President Biden. Four years of Democratic rule has seen Iranian oil exports more than treble, from 400,000 barrels a day in 2020 to an average of over 1.5 million barrels a day this year.
Yet as my documents show, sanctions-busting was happening even while Trump first occupied the White House.
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SubscribeLooks like we’re going to have to enact the Rhodesia Solution.