Donald Trump isn’t yet back in the White House — but his Iranian policy is clear. Like he did in his first term, he’ll pursue a vigorous policy against Tehran, hampering its nuclear programme and backing its rivals across the Middle East. If history is anything to go by, meanwhile, sanctions will be vital to this strategy, especially those targeting an Iranian oil sector worth billions of dollars each year.
But if renewed US action could hamstring the ayatollahs’ economy, sanctions are already being undermined: and not just by the Islamic Republic. I’ve obtained documents from confidential sources showing the illicit export of Iranian oil, a scheme involving foreign banks and shipping firms. And if these activities are sure to bolster a brutal regime in need of hard cash, they’re also funding chaos right across the region, even as shutting off the tap could yet spark a geopolitical revolution.
Iranian oil is big business. In 2023, total sales of its petrochemical products were worth some $70 billion. Listen to the regime, and it heralds this activity as a source of civilian prosperity. But dig a little deeper and things soon get murky. One of the major companies behind the Iranian oil sector is the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). According to the US government, this state-owned firm is an “agent or affiliate” of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the organisation that funds and controls Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Nefarious activities like these doubtless explain why the Islamic Republic is so worried about Trump’s second presidency. “I think they’re scared,” says Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran programme at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. “Iran tried to kill Trump and failed,” he continues, referring to an alleged plot on US soil. “And it knows that after the inauguration, it can expect a return to the policy of “maximum pressure” Trump applied in his first term — with potentially devastating political and economic consequences.”
Certainly, the numbers show the relatively easy ride Iran has enjoyed under President Biden. Four years of Democratic rule has seen Iranian oil exports more than treble, from 400,000 barrels a day in 2020 to an average of over 1.5 million barrels a day this year.
Yet as my documents show, sanctions-busting was happening even while Trump first occupied the White House.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeLooks like we’re going to have to enact the Rhodesia Solution.
The sanctions against Rhodesia resulted in that country’s economy going from strength to strength! By the time Mugabe slaughtered his way to power ‘through the barrels of his guns’ in 1980, one Rhodesian dollar was worth one UK pound! The country was exporting grain, meat and foodstuffs (and other commodities) to the corrupt, bankrupt ‘liberated’ nations of Africa to the North while no Rhodesian Blacks starved. In contrast, ‘free’ Zimbabwe delivered the highest rate of inflation history has ever known (not to mention corruption, torture, genocidal massacres and other atrocities, with trillions of Zimbabwe dollars eventually worth one US dollar and a starving population unable to use the trash money its government printed like grotesque confetti! The British government introduced and spearheaded the sanctions régime using the ghastly United Nations to legitimise the process – and failed miserably. Apart from oil/fuel imports, Rhodesia was basically self-sufficient – and ingenious sanctions-busters ran circles around the UN sanctions and oil blockade of the pipeline from Beira.
Why should any other country care? Trump wants to impose tariffs on all imports to the US, even from historically friendly nations. Therefore why should those countries then bother involving themselves in America’s games in the Middle East?
The Saudis care. Others in region do too. Trump might get the Israelis to bomb the Iranian gas/oil outlets for him . The Saudis could pump more oil to cover the global shorfall.
Thank you David Rose for a superb informative article
Maybe you should teach the mainstream media of how investigative journalism really looks like
One way to damage Iran’s oil industry is for Israel to bomb it. Yes, I know there would be other consequences for such action. First President Trump needs to unleash more US oil production and allow more US exports of fossil fuels to make up some of the difference in world markets.
After dealing with Irans nuclear program, Trump can then turn his attention to Israels nukes
There is a slight difference. Iran stated aim is to wipe another country of the map. It wants nuclear weapons. Two plus two generally equals four.
Israel’s nuclear programme is defensive.