23 September 2026 - 6:00pm
It’s starting to feel like 2006 again. The US is involved in a protracted war in the Middle East that is driving up fuel prices, voters remain concerned about the cost of living, the incumbent Republican president’s popularity is rapidly declining, and Democrats have a growing lead in the generic congressional ballot. In the face of all this, there is a growing consensus that the GOP is on track to lose its House majority this November — and possibly the Senate, too.
But while it is true that things look grim for Republicans nationally, the party does have a couple of factors working in its favour. One is the fact that voters do not hold the Democrats in high regard, either. Less than two years removed from an election in which the nation broadly rejected the Democrats, just 32% have a positive view of them.
Perhaps the most important factor that could keep Republicans afloat, however, is their finances. It’s not that Republicans have a sizeable fundraising advantage over Democrats everywhere, but they are staying competitive in several important places, which could have an impact on the outcome of key races this autumn.
Across 21 races that the Cook Political Report rates “toss-ups” — i.e. the races that could decide control of the House — Republicans have outraised their Democratic opponents ($93.1 million versus $86.4 million) and have more cash reserves heading into the final months ($55.8 million versus $43.8 million). And across the 28 districts rated competitive but Right-leaning, where Democrats could push to build a substantial majority if the national environment is sufficiently favourable, the GOP has similarly large advantages in overall fundraising ($83 million versus $49.3 million) and cash ($50.9 million versus $23.9 million).
The Senate picture is a little more complicated. Democrats have a handful of extremely strong fundraisers who are trouncing their Republican opponents in fundraising, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Roy Cooper in North Carolina — both of whom are expected to win their races — and James Talarico in Texas, who is running in a race Cook considers to be a toss-up. If Talarico’s fundraising is removed, then the picture starts to look different in the remaining six toss-ups: Republican candidates have $42 million in reserves compared to Democratic candidates’ $30 million, with advantages in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan. This does not guarantee Republicans will win these places, but it gives them the ammunition they need to stay competitive.
Then there are the party committees. The DNC has made national headlines for its chronic dysfunction, and it has the numbers to show it: as of this month, the party’s national committee had only $16.9 million in cash to hand but also carried $17.7 million in debates, leaving it with a cash balance of roughly -$750,000. By contrast, the RNC has a whopping $126 million in cash and no outstanding debts to pay. And across the parties’ four respective House and Senate campaign committees and super PACs, Republicans have a cash advantage in three of them.
While Republicans are doing what they need to give themselves a chance this autumn, it still may not be enough. Back in 2006, they also had a fundraising advantage over Democrats, bringing in more than $600 million across their federal party committees versus the Democrats’ $483 million. And yet, even with that massive war chest, the GOP still lost its majorities in both houses of Congress. The out-party historically tends to do well in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent is deeply unpopular with the public. Republicans are no doubt fighting an uphill battle all the way to November.
Still, having more resources than one’s opponent is clearly preferable to the alternative. And though Republicans are likely to suffer steep losses again this year, their financial prowess could help keep the bottom from falling out completely.
