Yesterday’s MRP mega-poll from YouGov is a serious blow to Reform UK’s morale. A year ago, when the pollster last used this method to produce a detailed electoral projection, it put Reform way out in front with 311 seats — not far short of a majority. But now the projection is just 123 seats, putting the party behind the Conservatives on 130 and Labour on 241. A conventional poll from More in Common also has Reform in third place.

It is, however, far too early to write off Nigel Farage and co. All of this is taking place during the new prime minister’s honeymoon period. But that may come to an end with the Halloween Budget on 28 October; and until then, claims as to the height or durability of the Burnham bounce are untested.

It isn’t just fiscal events that could change the state of play. On the day that the YouGov MRP landed, so did 781 illegal immigrants — a record number for a single day in 2026. Reform’s core issues aren’t going away. But most importantly, the party has a lot of cash to hand: £72 million buys Farage plenty of options. The question now is whether any of them are big enough to count as a game-changer. There are at least two that might.

One option would be to reunite the populist Right. Since hitting a high of 30% in the summer of 2025, Reform hasn’t just lost vote share to Labour and the Tories, but also to Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party. The polls put Restore somewhere between 3% and 7%. There’s also a separate MRP poll that has the party reaching double figures in more than a hundred constituencies.

One thing that YouGov stresses about its own MRP is that in over a third of seats, the projected victor wins by a margin of five percentage points or less. This includes two-thirds of the 123 seats where Reform is projected to win. If Farage and Lowe did agree on a pact, that could be significant.

But there’s another reset that might make a big difference. Reform is the most unpopular of the major parties and Farage the most unpopular of the leaders. That matters because so many Britons are willing to vote tactically to stop Reform, including the growing number of Labour and Lib Dem supporters open to voting Tory to that end.

Another possibility is for Reform to broaden its appeal beyond its core voters. That could mean a lower profile for provocateurs such as Zia Yusuf, alongside policies designed to reach a wider electorate. The party could, for instance, position itself as a champion of conservation, offer younger Britons a Marshall Plan for affordable home ownership, or give a political voice to the growing number of voters worried about AI.

In short, Farage can either try to monopolise Right-wing populism or reach out beyond it. Even if he does nothing, we can’t assume he’ll fail. The trajectory of Reform in the polls is sometimes compared to the short-lived SDP surge in the Eighties, but a closer parallel might be with populist AfD in Germany. Following the pandemic, the AfD suffered a marked loss of support only to come back stronger than ever. In France, the National Rally has also experienced setbacks, but now its parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen may be in a position to win the next presidential election.

Even as Reform falters, the Tories and Labour would be unwise to give in so easily to complacency.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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