10 September 2026 - 4:00pm
At a time when the global systems on which we all rely appear increasingly fragile, the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has sounded the alarm over yet another cause for concern. In a new report entitled “Ready to Grow”, the NFU showed how British domestic food production has faced a steep decline in recent decades. Over the past 30 years, self-sufficiency has fallen across 10 out of 11 key commodities such as wheat, vegetables and meat, while agri-food imports are up 70%.
This is cause for serious concern. Just a few weeks ago, my house became engulfed in the fine smoke billowing from a wildfire near the Westbury White Horse, some 14 miles away, while my neighbour began prudently installing air conditioning. Britons have lived through the hottest summer since records began, following closely on the record-breaking heat of last year. Persistent days of more than 30-degree weather brought drought, wildfire and discomfort across the country.
It takes a complex web of delicate natural and human systems to bring food to Britain’s tables — a web that grows more complicated the further it is stretched around the globe by a network of logistics, working non-stop to keep shelves stocked. Yet as those systems begin to face severe strain, it is alarming to consider how much food is produced beyond the country’s shores.
Britain has always imported food as a trading, seafaring nation. No one sensible is talking about food autarky, not least because total self-reliance would leave the country vulnerable to localised disasters. The question is whether the growing reliance on global food networks is sustainable in a world of climate shocks, rising international belligerence and unpredictable artificial intelligence.
Food is designated as Critical National Infrastructure — a series of essential assets which keep the country running — but just last week the National Audit Office produced a report stating that Defra has not done enough to strengthen resilience, and the country’s ability to absorb catastrophic events remains untested despite rising risks.
The solution may not be as simple as building a patriotic wall of cattle sheds and wheat silos, however. Domestic production is dependent on an industrial base of fertilisers, animal feed, food-grade chemicals and gases that have been significantly outsourced overseas. The worst self-sufficiency figures don’t relate to good old British beef and bread, but to fruit and vegetables, for which Britain is only 17% and 55% self-reliant respectively. In 1995, the country was producing 74% vegetables domestically.
A strategic response would be to boost not only British farming, but the whole agri-industrial base and certainly horticulture too. Perhaps less intuitively, British ecology needs to be boosted. It’s too easy to assume that a food-first paradigm pits farming against nature, but to do so would be to misunderstand the lessons that summer wildfires provided. Britain needs functioning ecosystems more than ever, not only to provide the soil, water and pollinators that agriculture has always demanded, but to mitigate the shocks of flood, drought and fire that are becoming the new reality. Tree cover and floodplains are essential food infrastructure.
The looming threats of AI and climate change might provoke anxiety, but perhaps a more useful response would be humility. Relying on food produced thousands of miles away is pure hubris in an uncertain world. Let’s bring at least some of that infrastructure home.
