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September 18, 2024 - 12:00pm
Imagine going back 10 years, to the immediate aftermath of 2014’s close-run referendum on Scottish independence, and telling people that the Conservative Party would be in power for the next decade, during which the SNP would win all but three Scottish seats in the House of Commons and the UK would leave the European Union. Imagine telling them that, in that time, the cause of separatism has got absolutely nowhere.
Better still, Nicola Sturgeon — who in 2014 was poised to succeed Alex Salmond as leader of the SNP — has come and gone. Not only did she twice fail to replicate his achievement of an overall majority at Holyrood, but her legacy lies in ruins, both her and her husband caught up in a criminal investigation into the Nationalists’ finances.
Judging by the mood of the coverage 10 years ago today, many people would not have believed you, especially if you added that a Tory Scottish Secretary would have used never-before-wielded powers to strike down a flagship Scottish Government bill, and that Westminster would have legislated to overrule the devocrats and keep vast swathes of former EU powers in London. Yet First Minister John Swinney is set to claim today, against all evidence, that the independence vote has changed Scotland for the better.
The 2014 referendum was much closer than it ought to have been. This was down largely to David Cameron’s gross mishandling of the negotiations — a preview of 2016, if only he knew it. On the advice of civil servants such as Ciaran Martin he took the path of least resistance, yielding to Salmond on nearly everything except the wording of the question.
His hope was that this would produce a decisive outcome. In reality, it simply gave the SNP more time to make its case, and we are wiser now about the reality of loser’s consent after a close-fought referendum.
Nearly everyone, not least Sturgeon herself, seemed to expect that the Nats would get another go before too long — especially after Brexit. Not only did the First Minister rush to declare a change of circumstances, but many English commentators suddenly converted to the cause of Scottish independence — or at least the belief that it was inevitable — as a just and inevitable consequence of England’s foolishness.
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SubscribeOne big rallying cry for independence was ‘It’s Scotland’s Oil’.
The SNP’s 2013 independence white paper forecast annual oil revenues of £7-8 billion by 2016/17
The desire for Net Zero among politicians has changed all that.
It is much harder to make the case for economic independence when you are trying to get rid of your flagship industry.
The growing political and economic dysfunctionality of the EU probably isn’t helping either.
The SNP was a means for third rate politicians to secure power
As much as I dislike ‘Smarmy’ Salmond, and Nicola ‘something fishy going on’ Sturgeon (as a distant second) they were not, as you say, “third rate”. They may have been all sorts of awful in lots of ways but as charismatic leaders they left the Westminster lot for no hoper fifth raters, and that was the best of the bunch.
They also showed that charisma has nothing to do with governance.
With no understanding of how wealth is created, only a desire to get their hands on the levers of distribution, the ScotzNatz offered no vision of independence, just a different kind of dependence. We have seen this play out in actions of the disastrous Central Belt-dominated Holyrood Parliament.
In my opinion the failure of the nationalist was that they built on anti-English rhetoric but then didn’t pursue it to its logical conclusion. If they had demanded that the referendum was pertinent to everyone in the uk, it is all of our country after all. I’m sure that English anti-scotishness would have prevailed.
A certain type of patriotic Unionist commentator should be wary before they reel off in Johnsonian mockery on the failurs of Scots to agree to secede.
It is not just Scotland that has seen the possibility of ‘independence’ drift further away. In the last 10 years the very idea of the possible autonomy, sovereignty and, frankly, dignity of small nations who seek to be self governing under a democratic mandate has undergone a relentless paradigmatic assault. 2010 feels a very long way away.
Italy, Portugal, Catalonia, Hungary, Serbia, Ukraine (whichever way you look at it) – all have felt the mailed fist of ruthelss hegemony within the velvet glove of the rules-based-international-order.
When people ridicule the efforts of idealistic Scots seeking the legal and legitimate goal of secession from a voluntary political Union – they should mind that what is sauce for the Scotch goose is sauce for the English gander.
There is no dignity in being a small state whose largesse to its citizens depends on borrowings and grants from larger neighbours, whether that neighbour be rUK or the EU.
To this day it still seems odd to me that Scottish Independence was the aim to withdraw from the Worlds most successful political union to then dive headlong into membership of the most undemocratic union. We seemingly don’t do irony in Scotland.
Utter Coital Bovine Scatology
If Scotland were such a burden then England would drop them like a hot brick
So all the propaganda is to Keep Scotland
Why because once you remove the Assets of Scotland from the Balance sheet Then England discovers that it’s well and truly bankrupt with no way out other than with cap in hand to the IMF
who will turbo charge and treble dose the steroids of Austerity
Top financial global experts are all too well aware of this
Ah but The English are delusional has been clowns devoid of colonies other than Scotland to loot and plunder
Tell me this just what has England achieved in the last 30 yrs
Answer nought positive
Plenty negatives
And that’s a simple reality
Not a squeak out the Better Together Lot upon the 10 th anniversary of the 2014 referendum
Why because they have achieved nothing other than increase poverty and the rate of decline
This is truly the most utter garbage. Not a single serious economist would agree with you. Why the Barnett Formula then? ! That isn’t a transfer from Scotland to England! The UK as a whole is an economic mess, but Scotland a worse one.
But the political point is here that there is a Union that people have loyalty too that has existed for 300 years. You might not understand this, and can try and persuade people otherwise, but please try new sensible arguments rather than just inventing ludicrous claptrap.
Total bloody nonsense. If England would drop parts of the UK that cost them money then how on earth is Northern Ireland still part of the UK?
Scottish independence is not based on what they stand for, but what they hate, Westminster (a proxy for The English). Should you ask them, all you get is ‘a better future’, ‘a fairer society’, or ‘xxxxxxx justice’. The last decade conclusively shows that they don’t have the ability to run a 21st century country. If you disagree, just look at education.
With reference to the headline my only comment has to be “Good”.
So the English are stuck in a Union many of us don’t want, with the iniquities of the West Lothian question and the Barnett formula undermining the democratic credibility of our governance.
And a strong probability that in an election in the near future the English will have a government most of us didn’t vote for imposed on us by Scottish votes.
Writing as an Irish nationalist with some credentials in relation to 1916-23, I would describe Scottish nationalism as a dinner party thing that got out of hand. The last sentence in the third last paragraph has always been key for me. The SNP make our political class look like titans. Scotland’s first and second divisions see themselves as Scottish and British, which leaves home rule in the hands of the third and fourth divisions, and it shows. Unlike our situation, for better or for worse, Scotland leaving the UK would mean the Scots leaving themselves.
Brexit may also have helped. While initially a boost to the independence cause (‘England forced Scotland out of the EU’) the now-evident complexity of unravelling 40 or so years of (relatively modest) integration has perhaps caused some swing voters to realise how difficult it would be to end a 300-year old marriage in which far more aspects of life have become so deeply entwined.
Does anyone who runs around a legislature calling her gender theory opponents ‘FARTs’ really get to be taken that seriously? And should she ever have been?
In all of this furore about Scotland, Wales has done it right. No gimmicks, not too many shady politicians and, best of all, the Senedd listens to the people.
20mph is an irritant. The NHS is poor, as it is in Scotland and England. Teachers have been toothbrush and potty training for several years. But the Senedd listens to the people.
There is no secret of the fact that the Senedd wants everybody in Wales to work for the state ( including those on benefits of course) and this is about control, a sort of communism. But the Senedd listens to the people.
I don’t know much about the Senedd. The guys I knew from South Wales at the time thought it was mainly just a jobs scheme for Welsh Labour party hacks and were against it. I seem to recall the referendum at the time was fairly close. It has much more curtailed powers and restrained ambitions than the Scottish Parliament does it not?
Oh my oh my. As usual one of the London eccentric Chattering classes who knows Zero of Scotland and it’s people’s
And I’ll qoute you My Dear Henry .
The words of who no doubt one of your very own greatest of Heroines
Margaret Thatcher who after being
elected for a 2Nd term appeared the day after
On the Jimmy Young BBC Radio 2
Show
Jimmy whilst interviewing her
posed the Question . Margaret
The Soviets call you The Iron Lady
Does that worry or frighten You ?
Margaret replied curtly No and stating nothing frightens me .
A good few minutes later Margaret
Interjected Jimmy whilst he was posing another Question
Upon which she said there is one matter than seriously worries myself .
Jimmy asked and what is that
Margaret – Scottish Nationalism
Jimmy – Why .
Margaret – Because History clearly demonstrates that when it appears as that Nationalism has been defeated
As it currently appears so with regards Scotland .That is actually when Nationalism is at its most
Dangerous .
Jimmy – Why
Margaret – Let me Finish, Because Nationalism always bounces back
In that situation and with a much larger increase in support than the support base that it’s Lost
So on that basis let’s do some simple Arithmetic
Support for Independence and for years hovers between 46 and 51 %
This supports your own synopsis of your article
So now let’s apply some demographics to support for Indy
And lo behold Margaret was indeed
Absolutely correct and if today she would be Shaking in her Heels and as She did so when negotiating handover of Hong Kong with Deng of China and Margaret was insisting that Britain still retain some territories .
Deng quietly asked her to drop such matters
Thatcher being Thatcher did not
Upon which Deng left the room saying I’ve gotta make a Important
Telephone call and I shall return shortly
Upon his return Deng then informed Thatcher that if she did not withdraw her demands that Britain retains some of those Territories immediately
Then Half a Million PLA soldiers shall be here within 4 Hrs
Thatcher was clearly visibly shaken to the core
So here is the data that would have exactly the same effect Upon
Thatcher if She was Prime Minister
Today
64 % of Scottish voters aged 16 to 32 support Indepence
Do the Maths and the time line
No matter what Scotland SHALL become Independent
And Your Heroine will have proven to be absolutely correct and justified with her one and only fear
Bye Bye or more appropriately
Slan Slan
Was this written by Chat GPT?
If so, a very early version without much training on the English language. Don’t blame the AI, blame the user.
Mrs Thatcher left Downing Street 35 years ago. She left this mortal coil over a decade ago. I saw her being carried up the steps of St Pauls.
We’ll be raking over Bloody Clavers and the Duke of Cumberland for avatars of greivance next at his rate.
Scotland is a proud nation with every right to self government if it should so choose. It only has to persuade itself.
Personally, as someone with roots in Scotland and has continuing links there I am always struck by how much Scotland has been spared the full whiriwind force of Mrs Thatchers Neo-Liberal reforms, when compared with England. The coherence and continuity of her forms of life and the ethnic and cultural homogeneity of her people is always very striking when coming up from the Southern Kingdom.