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A Ukrainian tank drives through Siversk in Donetsk (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Looking ahead, there are only two possible major military moves for Russia. Following the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists last autumn, of whom more than half are now combat-ready, Putin’s army is now larger than when it invaded last February. Then, the aim was not to start a war but to end it, with a quick victory forecast by Russian and US Intelligence, both equally intoxicated by the false promise of “post-kinetic” warfare; this would combine electronic propaganda with cyber-attacks on everything from military headquarters to civilian infrastructures. Generals who had never fought against patriotic Europeans but only against Middle Eastern sectarians, if they had fought at all, who considered tanks old-fashioned and had limitless respect for “information warfare”, heavily influenced the totally wrong estimates that misled both Biden and Putin.
After initial failure, Putin had two perfectly reasonable options. He could have ordered a retreat — a politically feasible choice since low-level warfare had been underway for years and the entire operation could have been passed off as an exercise in intimidation. Alternatively, he could have declared war, mobilised the Russian Armed forces and invaded Ukraine in earnest.
Instead of choosing between retreat or an all-out offensive, Putin and his unimpressive advisors simply tried one thing after another, from the launch of as many missiles as possible against Kyiv and other cities (even anti-aircraft missiles, with their small warheads) to an attempt to conquer Odesa via the industrial town of Mykolaiv, whose shipyard workers acted out a favourite theme of Soviet propaganda: workers streaming out of factories to fight the enemy with whatever weapons they had.
After that, there was mostly retreat for the Russian forces as they gave up the territories they had won at the start, around Kharkiv and on the northern edge of Kyiv. At this point, Putin’s aim was seemingly to keep the entire south, including the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts in addition to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Since Putin had not declared war to mobilise the Russian army (it would have meant calling up 18–year-old conscripts, and having their mothers at the Kremlin gate), he tried everything else, from deploying units manned by contract soldiers recruited in non-Russian peripheries in Siberia and the Caucasus to relying on the Wagner collection of desperadoes and ex-convicts. Finally, he decided to take the political risk of recalling 300,000 reservists.
It is these troops — or rather the actual number who turned up, and were not signed off for health reasons during their refresher training — who now provide the forces that Putin can send into action, in one of two ways.
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SubscribeThis is the most bonkers article I’ve ever read on Unherd! Totally detached from reality.
Care to elaborate, wise master?
No word from Sam.. maybe he reread the piece and changed his mind? Or maybe he’s one of the gung-ho types who thinks Ukraine will retake all of it’s former territory, including Crimea.. Maybe he’s hoping for a full scale invasion of Russia?
Hyperbole simply weakens your argument.
No argument.. merely a question? ..with a further hypothesis on a failure to answer the question.. the conch is in Sam’s hands.
Straw man rather than hyperbole I reckon, but I take your point.
No argument.. merely a question? ..with a further hypothesis on a failure to answer the question.. the conch is in Sam’s hands.
Straw man rather than hyperbole I reckon, but I take your point.
How about the idea of negotiating with Russia – a country that sees it as a point of honour to violate any agreement it enters into.
Or the hilarious idea that the Russian army could conduct a successful blitzkrieg invasion though Belarus?
That’s pretty funny, after Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko have all said they never had any intention of abiding by the Minsk Accords and used them to keep the Russians quiet while they armed Ukraine.
Historically the Russians have honored their treaties, but you need to be careful about the fine print as they will push pretty far. But the fact that they are tough and thorough negotiators is not the same as being dishonest; dishonesty has been more of a Western thing, like no NATO expansion East of the Oder-Neisse line, or the Minsk Accords.
How about guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons?
How about guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia? Or Czechoslovakia?
Or, conversely, applying the same principles as those countries, how about accepting that the Donbass has no place or reason to be in Ukraine and accepting their independence or at least self government.
Which was the point of the Minsk agreement, that Ukraine and their NATO backers agreed to – and had no intent to honour.
What was the point of the 1991 agreement to a free and independent Ukraine, with secure borders?
Indeed, agreements made under duress are not binding.
In 1991, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia were single states
Ukraine got their sovereignty and separation without any drama or military attacks by Russians in 1991.
Maybe they should be obliged to extend the same courtesies to the Donbass, which is ethnically and politically separate from the rest of the Ukraine?
Is it? Have you asked those who remain in those regions? Or who took up arms against the invading Russians, even though at an earlier stage they had thought that seceding to Russia might be in their best economic and cultural interests?
Is it? Have you asked those who remain in those regions? Or who took up arms against the invading Russians, even though at an earlier stage they had thought that seceding to Russia might be in their best economic and cultural interests?
In 1991, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia were single states
Ukraine got their sovereignty and separation without any drama or military attacks by Russians in 1991.
Maybe they should be obliged to extend the same courtesies to the Donbass, which is ethnically and politically separate from the rest of the Ukraine?
Chekoslovakia decided, sovereignly and independently, to split up. So did Yougoslavia. The quarrel with NATO was about Serbia retaining territory by force against the wishes of the local population. If you want to be taken seriously you need to move some of your arguments slightly closer to reality.
What was the point of the 1991 agreement to a free and independent Ukraine, with secure borders?
Indeed, agreements made under duress are not binding.
Chekoslovakia decided, sovereignly and independently, to split up. So did Yougoslavia. The quarrel with NATO was about Serbia retaining territory by force against the wishes of the local population. If you want to be taken seriously you need to move some of your arguments slightly closer to reality.
You forget four events that were game changers:
1. CIA orchestrated coup in 20i4 that ousted a freely elected (pro Russian) leader..
2. The CIA then installed a puppet under the leadership of NATO, a direct threat to Russia.
3. NATO then announced it would accept Ukraine as a member!!
4. The new regime persecuted the minority Russian speaking people in the Donbas for 8 years killing 14,000 there.
If similar events occurred in Canada or Mexico how might the US have reacted do you suppose?
1) 2) The last several Ukrainian presidents have been freely elected, and could have chosen to become part of the Russian near abroad – if they or their population had wanted to. Nguyen Van Thieu and Hamid Karzai were puppets. Zelensky is not.
3) Oh dear, NATO actually said out loud that they were willing to accept Ukraine as a member at some unspecified time in the future? If Ukraine were to ask? Does not sound all that aggressive to me – after allRUasssia could avoid it sikply by giving Ukraine a better offer.
4) That just might have something to do with minority Russian-speakers waging an armed secession against the government with the active help of a foreign power, don’t you think? The situation in the Donbass is neither simple not clear – as is often the case after an empire has broken up – but the story of innocent and powerless Russian-speakers being murdered in pogroms by the Ukrainians belongs in cloud-cuckoo land.
Again – for a sensible conversation you would have to move your arguments somewhat closer to the real world.
Well said Liam, this perspective is rarely heard here in the West, but is actually a truer picture of the last 10 years. The delusions of tin pot militarist MPs in the UK is pathetic. Do they seriously believe our Army could last 10 mins against Russia? Medieval religious fanatics soundly defeated us in Afghanistan and Iraq. With the “aid” we have given to the fascists of the Ukraine govt we could have funded nurses pay rises for 58 years!
Evidence please, Liam
In 1991 All oblasts voted in favour of Ukrainian independence, Luhansk & Donetsk by more than 83%. Ukraine gave up it’s nuclear weapons (the only state ever to do this), in return for territorial integrity.
States only joined NATO because they applied to join, with those closest to Russia most enthusiastic to do so, including more recently those who were heretofore vehemently neutral.
I fully accept that all democracies are imperfect, and often newer democracies are less perfect, but no abuse of Russian speakers justify war with its inevitable accompanying horrors.
1) 2) The last several Ukrainian presidents have been freely elected, and could have chosen to become part of the Russian near abroad – if they or their population had wanted to. Nguyen Van Thieu and Hamid Karzai were puppets. Zelensky is not.
3) Oh dear, NATO actually said out loud that they were willing to accept Ukraine as a member at some unspecified time in the future? If Ukraine were to ask? Does not sound all that aggressive to me – after allRUasssia could avoid it sikply by giving Ukraine a better offer.
4) That just might have something to do with minority Russian-speakers waging an armed secession against the government with the active help of a foreign power, don’t you think? The situation in the Donbass is neither simple not clear – as is often the case after an empire has broken up – but the story of innocent and powerless Russian-speakers being murdered in pogroms by the Ukrainians belongs in cloud-cuckoo land.
Again – for a sensible conversation you would have to move your arguments somewhat closer to the real world.
Well said Liam, this perspective is rarely heard here in the West, but is actually a truer picture of the last 10 years. The delusions of tin pot militarist MPs in the UK is pathetic. Do they seriously believe our Army could last 10 mins against Russia? Medieval religious fanatics soundly defeated us in Afghanistan and Iraq. With the “aid” we have given to the fascists of the Ukraine govt we could have funded nurses pay rises for 58 years!
Evidence please, Liam
In 1991 All oblasts voted in favour of Ukrainian independence, Luhansk & Donetsk by more than 83%. Ukraine gave up it’s nuclear weapons (the only state ever to do this), in return for territorial integrity.
States only joined NATO because they applied to join, with those closest to Russia most enthusiastic to do so, including more recently those who were heretofore vehemently neutral.
I fully accept that all democracies are imperfect, and often newer democracies are less perfect, but no abuse of Russian speakers justify war with its inevitable accompanying horrors.
Wasn’t that an absolute cracker? Double-cross of the 21st century.
How about guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia? Or Czechoslovakia?
Or, conversely, applying the same principles as those countries, how about accepting that the Donbass has no place or reason to be in Ukraine and accepting their independence or at least self government.
Which was the point of the Minsk agreement, that Ukraine and their NATO backers agreed to – and had no intent to honour.
You forget four events that were game changers:
1. CIA orchestrated coup in 20i4 that ousted a freely elected (pro Russian) leader..
2. The CIA then installed a puppet under the leadership of NATO, a direct threat to Russia.
3. NATO then announced it would accept Ukraine as a member!!
4. The new regime persecuted the minority Russian speaking people in the Donbas for 8 years killing 14,000 there.
If similar events occurred in Canada or Mexico how might the US have reacted do you suppose?
Wasn’t that an absolute cracker? Double-cross of the 21st century.
How about guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up nuclear weapons?
Can you list a few of the agreements that Russia reneged on.. I can’t think of any but I’m sure there must be some? It was NATO’s breaking its “Not an inch futher” undertaking that caused the war and NATO’s breaking the Minsk2 Agreement that caused 90% the bloodshed.. and Russia broke what agreements exactly?
“Can you list a few of the agreements that Russia reneged on”
Good question.
Besides, the statements from NATO and Ukrainian leaders make it clear they had no intent to follow the Minsk deal from the very beginning – whatever the Russians are supposed to have done post Minsk had nothing to do with their lack of honour.
Russia guaranted the safety and territorial integrity of Ukraine – in a treaty in writing – when Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons. Russia has very much reneged on that agreement. If you want us so take you seriously you really cannot ‘forget’ details like that.
“Can you list a few of the agreements that Russia reneged on”
Good question.
Besides, the statements from NATO and Ukrainian leaders make it clear they had no intent to follow the Minsk deal from the very beginning – whatever the Russians are supposed to have done post Minsk had nothing to do with their lack of honour.
Russia guaranted the safety and territorial integrity of Ukraine – in a treaty in writing – when Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons. Russia has very much reneged on that agreement. If you want us so take you seriously you really cannot ‘forget’ details like that.
That’s pretty funny, after Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko have all said they never had any intention of abiding by the Minsk Accords and used them to keep the Russians quiet while they armed Ukraine.
Historically the Russians have honored their treaties, but you need to be careful about the fine print as they will push pretty far. But the fact that they are tough and thorough negotiators is not the same as being dishonest; dishonesty has been more of a Western thing, like no NATO expansion East of the Oder-Neisse line, or the Minsk Accords.
Can you list a few of the agreements that Russia reneged on.. I can’t think of any but I’m sure there must be some? It was NATO’s breaking its “Not an inch futher” undertaking that caused the war and NATO’s breaking the Minsk2 Agreement that caused 90% the bloodshed.. and Russia broke what agreements exactly?
Hyperbole simply weakens your argument.
How about the idea of negotiating with Russia – a country that sees it as a point of honour to violate any agreement it enters into.
Or the hilarious idea that the Russian army could conduct a successful blitzkrieg invasion though Belarus?
I’ll do it for you. Currently the Russians have three fronts in their struggle against Ukraine. In the south, they have forces ensuring their retention of Crimea. Without Crimea their ability to project naval power into the Black Sea and thence to the Med collapses. They don’t want that. Then they’ve got their pincer movement around Bahkmut, which if it falls to them, will assist in Russia’s recovery of the Donbas. The Donbas contains energy resources which, if captured and held by Ukraine, will make good the energy supplies to the EU that used to come from Russia. So the EU has a vital interest in the continued free state of Ukraine. But let’s go back to Belarus, from which the buffoon Lukashenko has fled with his family to the UAE. The Belarus military are no help to Russia. During the Russian attempt to seize Kiev, unknown militants in Belarus blew up the railway that was intended to supply that 40km convoy of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles outside Kiev. Allof them subsequently destroyed or captured by Ukraine. Belarus could easily become the next post-Soviet state to turn to the West, and away from Russia. Put these factors together, in particular their huge military investment on other fronts, and the idea of Russia launching another attempted strike through Belarus seems utterly risible.
Because the Russian army has amply shown itself to be crap at mounting offences.
No word from Sam.. maybe he reread the piece and changed his mind? Or maybe he’s one of the gung-ho types who thinks Ukraine will retake all of it’s former territory, including Crimea.. Maybe he’s hoping for a full scale invasion of Russia?
I’ll do it for you. Currently the Russians have three fronts in their struggle against Ukraine. In the south, they have forces ensuring their retention of Crimea. Without Crimea their ability to project naval power into the Black Sea and thence to the Med collapses. They don’t want that. Then they’ve got their pincer movement around Bahkmut, which if it falls to them, will assist in Russia’s recovery of the Donbas. The Donbas contains energy resources which, if captured and held by Ukraine, will make good the energy supplies to the EU that used to come from Russia. So the EU has a vital interest in the continued free state of Ukraine. But let’s go back to Belarus, from which the buffoon Lukashenko has fled with his family to the UAE. The Belarus military are no help to Russia. During the Russian attempt to seize Kiev, unknown militants in Belarus blew up the railway that was intended to supply that 40km convoy of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles outside Kiev. Allof them subsequently destroyed or captured by Ukraine. Belarus could easily become the next post-Soviet state to turn to the West, and away from Russia. Put these factors together, in particular their huge military investment on other fronts, and the idea of Russia launching another attempted strike through Belarus seems utterly risible.
Because the Russian army has amply shown itself to be crap at mounting offences.
Care to elaborate, wise master?
This is the most bonkers article I’ve ever read on Unherd! Totally detached from reality.
Putin has such a list of broken agreements on his conto – why on earth think that ‘peace’ now would mean anything else than a breather for Putin and a chance to try again later? Makes no sense at.
The broken promise (Minsk2) was by NATO to Russia, openly stated to give Ukraine a chance to build up it’s armed forces.. Putin doesn’t really need a ‘breather’.. it’s NATO and Ukraine that needs the breather! By their own admission, the UK has enough ammunition for 1 day of full scale war! German says it has 2 days supply. Ukraine is running out rapidly. Russia seems to have endless supplies. Russia has a standing army of ¾ million..
There are no broken promises of codified agreements. Please point to where it states this?
It’s a mythology pedalled by the Kremlin about some secret agreement in 91. NATO’s always had an open door policy. Doesn’t mean you get admitted, but there is no agreement with Russia.
Minsk agreement has no reference to NATO, and it’s the Russian’s who broke it by invading other parts of Ukraine.
I think this shows how persuasive some elements of the counter information strategy of the FBS have been in certain quarters that don’t check it out first.
As regards military kit and ammunition – there is no doubt this is forcing western countries to crank up production as stocks run down. Probably needs to go faster and quicker. Pentagon and Congress recently relaxed procurement rules to enable more immediate contracting with defence industries for this reason. Fact is the West could, if it needs, really accelerate. (Many will remember the liberty ships challenge from WW2 that shows what we can do when necessary. That ability in extremis will not have entirely disappeared).
Whereas the Russian military provision is a shambles. They’ve much bigger problems hence taking from likes of Iran. And what’s more Russia usually been a key supplier Iran, China and India. So they will all be feeling it.
We can tend to focus on our own deficiencies and forget others have them too, if not more.
J Watson, be careful, that’s dangerously close to a reasoned argument based upon actual facts. That’s hate speech by definition.
‘It’s a mythology pedalled by the Kremlin about some secret agreement in 91’:
I dispute that:
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/02/21/uncovered-document-reveals-soviet-union-was-promised-no-nato-expansion-at-end-of-cold-war/
Also on nato expansion:
Quote:
It was predictable that NATO, a principal instrument of U.S. foreign policy in Europe throughout the cold war, would become the subject of debate in the wake of the demise of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. Not surprisingly, questions have been raised about the need for NATO’s continued existence, the proper balance between European and American contributions, and both the desirability and feasibility of adopting new missions for NATO, from peacemaking inside Europe to warfighting outside. What was less predictable, however, was that the most intense and prolonged debate would be over NATO’s size. One reason such a debate was not predicted is that it was anything but inevitable. To the contrary, the first principal initiative of the Clinton administration toward Europe was the Partnership for Peace, an attempt to develop relationships with and strengthen the states of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. States were offered a menu of potential political and military arrangements, including regular consultations, educational opportunities, and extensive training and exercising. The intention was to professionalize and Westernize their military establishments while offering these countries a degree of reassurance—and doing all this in a manner designed to reduce the chance of a hostile Russian reaction.
Yet less than one year after launching the Partnership for Peace, the Clinton administration, with little debate or public preparation, introduced the goal of NATO expansion.
Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/research/enlarging-nato-a-questionable-idea-whose-time-has-come/%3famp
A wee bit economical with the facts there I fear..
1. The agreement by NATO to advance no further East was in return for not contesting a unified Germany. That is accepted on all sides.. it is not Kremlin misinformation.
2. The Minsk Accord was about protecting minority rights (et al) which Ukraine breached at will, killing 14,000 in the Donbas since 2014 using their N¤zi Azov battalion. The guarantors Germany and France stood idly by and stated openly this year that they had no intention of upholding that solemn agreement. It was merely a ploy to buy time for Ukraine to build up its military. So Minsk was already in tatters long before Russia invaded.
3. As fast as the US can manufacture weapons Russia can match them.. and the latter do not have the massive logistical problems of getting those heavy and highly sophisticated weapons half way around the globe not to mention the massive follow up and training etc. required to make the damn things work.
3A. Besides, the US needs all its weapons for the upcoming US-China war which is in the advanced stages of preparation by the US. Again they will need to get all that kit all the way across the Pacific to their newly opened bases in the Philippines etc. In short the US is going to need a shed load of kit and a supply line and back-up the like of which has never been seen in history. Btw it seems China has more submarines than the US so I’m not sure if the US can carry it off. 4. Remember they had their asses kicked by the Vietnamese and Afghans (hardly in the top league?) at enormous economic cost (the US is broke now) so I can’t see them taking on China unless they first “terminate operations” in Ukraine.. but what do I know?
5. You think the Russia military provision is in a shambles? if that is so why are they “wasting” thousands of expensive cruise missiles every month, ie if they cannot replenish them?
6. And your point that Russia usually supplies weapons to Iran, China and India means they surely have the capacity to produce vast quantities of weapons: and it’s hardly unusual for different weapons to be exported to AND imported from the same country depending on different needs.
You will appreciate this one Mr Mahony, massive massive development breaking being kept on dl, pulitzer prize winning journalist, sounds very legit:
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-demands-us-explain-itself-world-over-nord-stream-attack-story
It is certainly not impossible, but it would require some convincing evidence, clearly presented. To a quick surf, what we get is a long and gripping story, not evidence. And Seymour Hersh, on both is record and his prose, is a lifelong enemy of all US foreign policy. His first scoops (My Lai, the bombing of Cambodia) were real and important. Later efforts, Osama Bin Laden and Syrian nerve gas, looked more like mischief-making. This one?
He is 85. He is considered one of the world’s most respected investigative journalists. He has a pulitzer prize. This story is being talked about as one of the most significant geopolitical stories for years. Here he explains why he had to use substack:
I won a Pulitzer Prize for international reporting for that work, but getting it before the American public was no easy task. I wasn’t an established journalist working for an established outfit. My first story, published under a barely existent wire service run by a friend of mine, was initially rejected by the editors at Life and Look magazines. When the Washington Post finally published it, they littered it with Pentagon denials and the unthinking skepticism of the rewrite man……………..
What you’ll find here is, I hope, a reflection of that freedom. The story you will read today is the truth as I worked for three months to find, with no pressure from a publisher, editors or peers to make it hew to certain lines of thought—or pare it back to assuage their fears. Substack simply means reporting is back . . . unfiltered and unprogrammed—just the way I like it
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/why-substack
There are two ways you could see this. One is that of a man with a lifelong commitment to finding out and telling the truth and good sources, who is yet again revealing something the US establishment would prefer to keep hidden. The other is that of a man with a lifelong commitment to exposing the US government as the evil liars he *knows* they are (and who could blame him, considering he did his first work on My Lai and the Cambodia bombings), and who would be a natural conduit for anyone with an antiamerican story they wanted out. Whatever he is, he is certainly not neutral; I would count on him to tell the most anti-american story he can justify in any circumstances. He might well be right – it is a plausible explanation – but that is all to prove. I would not dream of taking his word for something with this many consequences.
The potential consequences of this are blowing my mind.
I don’t think he would risk, at 85, a pretty damn good reputation built over a lifetime, over a fallacy. Especially with something that has consequences like this could have.
Look a spy balloon!!
This is potentially a massive f*ck up on americas part. Again.
Sorry. So funny though. We have now upgraded from balloons to full blown UFOs. America are panicking. Funny how those aliens only show up over the us. Alien spy balloons are a psyop too far America. Just hold your hands up, sack your president and forget decoupling and ww3. How does that sound.
Sorry. So funny though. We have now upgraded from balloons to full blown UFOs. America are panicking. Funny how those aliens only show up over the us. Alien spy balloons are a psyop too far America. Just hold your hands up, sack your president and forget decoupling and ww3. How does that sound.
The potential consequences of this are blowing my mind.
I don’t think he would risk, at 85, a pretty damn good reputation built over a lifetime, over a fallacy. Especially with something that has consequences like this could have.
Look a spy balloon!!
This is potentially a massive f*ck up on americas part. Again.
There are two ways you could see this. One is that of a man with a lifelong commitment to finding out and telling the truth and good sources, who is yet again revealing something the US establishment would prefer to keep hidden. The other is that of a man with a lifelong commitment to exposing the US government as the evil liars he *knows* they are (and who could blame him, considering he did his first work on My Lai and the Cambodia bombings), and who would be a natural conduit for anyone with an antiamerican story they wanted out. Whatever he is, he is certainly not neutral; I would count on him to tell the most anti-american story he can justify in any circumstances. He might well be right – it is a plausible explanation – but that is all to prove. I would not dream of taking his word for something with this many consequences.
He is 85. He is considered one of the world’s most respected investigative journalists. He has a pulitzer prize. This story is being talked about as one of the most significant geopolitical stories for years. Here he explains why he had to use substack:
I won a Pulitzer Prize for international reporting for that work, but getting it before the American public was no easy task. I wasn’t an established journalist working for an established outfit. My first story, published under a barely existent wire service run by a friend of mine, was initially rejected by the editors at Life and Look magazines. When the Washington Post finally published it, they littered it with Pentagon denials and the unthinking skepticism of the rewrite man……………..
What you’ll find here is, I hope, a reflection of that freedom. The story you will read today is the truth as I worked for three months to find, with no pressure from a publisher, editors or peers to make it hew to certain lines of thought—or pare it back to assuage their fears. Substack simply means reporting is back . . . unfiltered and unprogrammed—just the way I like it
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/why-substack
It is certainly not impossible, but it would require some convincing evidence, clearly presented. To a quick surf, what we get is a long and gripping story, not evidence. And Seymour Hersh, on both is record and his prose, is a lifelong enemy of all US foreign policy. His first scoops (My Lai, the bombing of Cambodia) were real and important. Later efforts, Osama Bin Laden and Syrian nerve gas, looked more like mischief-making. This one?
You will appreciate this one Mr Mahony, massive massive development breaking being kept on dl, pulitzer prize winning journalist, sounds very legit:
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-demands-us-explain-itself-world-over-nord-stream-attack-story
J Watson, be careful, that’s dangerously close to a reasoned argument based upon actual facts. That’s hate speech by definition.
‘It’s a mythology pedalled by the Kremlin about some secret agreement in 91’:
I dispute that:
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/02/21/uncovered-document-reveals-soviet-union-was-promised-no-nato-expansion-at-end-of-cold-war/
Also on nato expansion:
Quote:
It was predictable that NATO, a principal instrument of U.S. foreign policy in Europe throughout the cold war, would become the subject of debate in the wake of the demise of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. Not surprisingly, questions have been raised about the need for NATO’s continued existence, the proper balance between European and American contributions, and both the desirability and feasibility of adopting new missions for NATO, from peacemaking inside Europe to warfighting outside. What was less predictable, however, was that the most intense and prolonged debate would be over NATO’s size. One reason such a debate was not predicted is that it was anything but inevitable. To the contrary, the first principal initiative of the Clinton administration toward Europe was the Partnership for Peace, an attempt to develop relationships with and strengthen the states of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact. States were offered a menu of potential political and military arrangements, including regular consultations, educational opportunities, and extensive training and exercising. The intention was to professionalize and Westernize their military establishments while offering these countries a degree of reassurance—and doing all this in a manner designed to reduce the chance of a hostile Russian reaction.
Yet less than one year after launching the Partnership for Peace, the Clinton administration, with little debate or public preparation, introduced the goal of NATO expansion.
Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.brookings.edu/research/enlarging-nato-a-questionable-idea-whose-time-has-come/%3famp
A wee bit economical with the facts there I fear..
1. The agreement by NATO to advance no further East was in return for not contesting a unified Germany. That is accepted on all sides.. it is not Kremlin misinformation.
2. The Minsk Accord was about protecting minority rights (et al) which Ukraine breached at will, killing 14,000 in the Donbas since 2014 using their N¤zi Azov battalion. The guarantors Germany and France stood idly by and stated openly this year that they had no intention of upholding that solemn agreement. It was merely a ploy to buy time for Ukraine to build up its military. So Minsk was already in tatters long before Russia invaded.
3. As fast as the US can manufacture weapons Russia can match them.. and the latter do not have the massive logistical problems of getting those heavy and highly sophisticated weapons half way around the globe not to mention the massive follow up and training etc. required to make the damn things work.
3A. Besides, the US needs all its weapons for the upcoming US-China war which is in the advanced stages of preparation by the US. Again they will need to get all that kit all the way across the Pacific to their newly opened bases in the Philippines etc. In short the US is going to need a shed load of kit and a supply line and back-up the like of which has never been seen in history. Btw it seems China has more submarines than the US so I’m not sure if the US can carry it off. 4. Remember they had their asses kicked by the Vietnamese and Afghans (hardly in the top league?) at enormous economic cost (the US is broke now) so I can’t see them taking on China unless they first “terminate operations” in Ukraine.. but what do I know?
5. You think the Russia military provision is in a shambles? if that is so why are they “wasting” thousands of expensive cruise missiles every month, ie if they cannot replenish them?
6. And your point that Russia usually supplies weapons to Iran, China and India means they surely have the capacity to produce vast quantities of weapons: and it’s hardly unusual for different weapons to be exported to AND imported from the same country depending on different needs.
The broken promise was crossing an international border, set up since 1991, and guaranteed by treaty.
Donbassers could have lobbied the govt in Kyiv precisely the way they did on Maidan, before Yanukovich started killing people.
Equally, Putin’s seizure of Crimea was totally unjustified. And unless you think the US was going to risk nuclear war, there was zero chance NATO was going to take over the largest Russian naval base, a base legally legally leased to Russia.
Putin’s greed and paranoia brought us here.
He thinks the West will do what he would if he had our power.
It just shows how naive KGB agents really were.
So in 3 days Ukraine is going to run out of ammo? No? Then what? Does it magically appear on the battlefield?
Putin needed time to make at least a half assed attempt to train up his new Mobiks. So half were sent untrained to plug up holes and half got a few months training in Belarus, from trainers that had never fought in a war.
Any army will take any breather it can get once they’ve taken enough to need to solidify its new lines. If it weren’t for that, Russia would have lost more of Luhansk. As it is, they were driven out of Kharkiv oblast and a lot of the Kherson oblast. Almost half the territory that Russia took at one time or another during this second invasion has been retaken by Ukraine. But I’m sure that was all good will gestures, not that Russia was unable to hold them.
Prigozhen has quit recruiting in prisons. He found that people who were civilian criminals, for some strange reason, stayed criminals even in his ruthless army. But the regular Russian army has started recruiting from prisons. You’d think someone would learn.
Indeed. The Russians need only have looked at GB’s recruitment of similar criminals to fight the Irish rebels after 1916, technically the “Auxiliaries” but better known as the “Black and Tans”. The regular British army* had an impossible job trying to keep those brutes in check as they ran amok murdering and burning at a whim. I agree, it’s far better to have a disciplined army of human beings.
* My father, 5 years old at the time owed his life to such an event. Without the courageous intervention of a regular British trooper he would have been toast, literally!
Many armies suffer defeats in battle and engage in strategic withdrawals, not least the British army in North Africa in WW2 but go on to win in the end. I wouldn’t bet against a Russian victory (or more accurately Ukrainian exhaustion) if I were you. The US is broke and wants out of there ASAP.. it needs all it’s weapons to fight the upcoming war against China!
GB has enough ammunition to fight one day in a FULL SCALE war against Russia or China (not the skirmish in Ukraine). No one is saying the 14 tanks going to Ukraine is GBs full compliment fgs!
Are you really going to use something that happened in 1916 against us? And as something that the Russians have drawn on for modern battle tactics?
He always does.
He always does.
Are you really going to use something that happened in 1916 against us? And as something that the Russians have drawn on for modern battle tactics?
Indeed. The Russians need only have looked at GB’s recruitment of similar criminals to fight the Irish rebels after 1916, technically the “Auxiliaries” but better known as the “Black and Tans”. The regular British army* had an impossible job trying to keep those brutes in check as they ran amok murdering and burning at a whim. I agree, it’s far better to have a disciplined army of human beings.
* My father, 5 years old at the time owed his life to such an event. Without the courageous intervention of a regular British trooper he would have been toast, literally!
Many armies suffer defeats in battle and engage in strategic withdrawals, not least the British army in North Africa in WW2 but go on to win in the end. I wouldn’t bet against a Russian victory (or more accurately Ukrainian exhaustion) if I were you. The US is broke and wants out of there ASAP.. it needs all it’s weapons to fight the upcoming war against China!
GB has enough ammunition to fight one day in a FULL SCALE war against Russia or China (not the skirmish in Ukraine). No one is saying the 14 tanks going to Ukraine is GBs full compliment fgs!
There are no broken promises of codified agreements. Please point to where it states this?
It’s a mythology pedalled by the Kremlin about some secret agreement in 91. NATO’s always had an open door policy. Doesn’t mean you get admitted, but there is no agreement with Russia.
Minsk agreement has no reference to NATO, and it’s the Russian’s who broke it by invading other parts of Ukraine.
I think this shows how persuasive some elements of the counter information strategy of the FBS have been in certain quarters that don’t check it out first.
As regards military kit and ammunition – there is no doubt this is forcing western countries to crank up production as stocks run down. Probably needs to go faster and quicker. Pentagon and Congress recently relaxed procurement rules to enable more immediate contracting with defence industries for this reason. Fact is the West could, if it needs, really accelerate. (Many will remember the liberty ships challenge from WW2 that shows what we can do when necessary. That ability in extremis will not have entirely disappeared).
Whereas the Russian military provision is a shambles. They’ve much bigger problems hence taking from likes of Iran. And what’s more Russia usually been a key supplier Iran, China and India. So they will all be feeling it.
We can tend to focus on our own deficiencies and forget others have them too, if not more.
The broken promise was crossing an international border, set up since 1991, and guaranteed by treaty.
Donbassers could have lobbied the govt in Kyiv precisely the way they did on Maidan, before Yanukovich started killing people.
Equally, Putin’s seizure of Crimea was totally unjustified. And unless you think the US was going to risk nuclear war, there was zero chance NATO was going to take over the largest Russian naval base, a base legally legally leased to Russia.
Putin’s greed and paranoia brought us here.
He thinks the West will do what he would if he had our power.
It just shows how naive KGB agents really were.
So in 3 days Ukraine is going to run out of ammo? No? Then what? Does it magically appear on the battlefield?
Putin needed time to make at least a half assed attempt to train up his new Mobiks. So half were sent untrained to plug up holes and half got a few months training in Belarus, from trainers that had never fought in a war.
Any army will take any breather it can get once they’ve taken enough to need to solidify its new lines. If it weren’t for that, Russia would have lost more of Luhansk. As it is, they were driven out of Kharkiv oblast and a lot of the Kherson oblast. Almost half the territory that Russia took at one time or another during this second invasion has been retaken by Ukraine. But I’m sure that was all good will gestures, not that Russia was unable to hold them.
Prigozhen has quit recruiting in prisons. He found that people who were civilian criminals, for some strange reason, stayed criminals even in his ruthless army. But the regular Russian army has started recruiting from prisons. You’d think someone would learn.
Will somebody please list Putins broken agreements! I’m not defending the tyrant, merely looking for clarification.
See my posts above.
See my posts above.
The broken promise (Minsk2) was by NATO to Russia, openly stated to give Ukraine a chance to build up it’s armed forces.. Putin doesn’t really need a ‘breather’.. it’s NATO and Ukraine that needs the breather! By their own admission, the UK has enough ammunition for 1 day of full scale war! German says it has 2 days supply. Ukraine is running out rapidly. Russia seems to have endless supplies. Russia has a standing army of ¾ million..
Will somebody please list Putins broken agreements! I’m not defending the tyrant, merely looking for clarification.
Putin has such a list of broken agreements on his conto – why on earth think that ‘peace’ now would mean anything else than a breather for Putin and a chance to try again later? Makes no sense at.
A hare-brained scheme.
The only reason Putin’s failed invasion got as far as it did was because many thought he didn’t intend to invade. No such thinking now.
Any Russian units of considerable size would have to be shipped by rail. Even if they used (inferior) Belarusian armour in-country, there is no way to hide such a large concentration. Western and Ukraine intel would learn about it weeks in advance, and prepare.
So is Luttwak on Ukraine’s side, suggesting a plan that brings fresh disaster to Putin’s cascading failures?
(30 Russian armoured vehicles destroyed just yesterday in Vuhledar, BTW)
Regardless of whether the military scheme is practical, it may well be that conceding Luhansk and Donbas is in Ukraine’s best interests if it results in a stable, unified Ukraine without significant Russian separatists and with a pro-Western concensus. Something stable that can be rebuilt without further Russian threats and which will be a reliable Western ally (the last thing the West needs is to be shipping advanced defence kit into a country that might get chunked up again by Russia).
The best outcome here is one where there are no “frozen conflicts” and a stable equilibrium which both sides can live with is reached. At some point, we need to set aside the morality.
How much of that “advanced defence kit” has already been ‘acquired’ by Sinbad & Co?
And how long before we see it being launched from the M25 in the general direction of Heathrow? Or even Windsor Castle?
Charles, I have absolutely no idea.
But it’s worth remembering one thing about “advanced defence kit” that I’d forgotten and it’s this. It’s useless without training, spares, maintenance and support.
A good case in point is the “flight codes” (software packages) for advanced US military jets like the F35. The US can choose what configuration (and upgrades) a customer will get. And likely also issue time-limited licences for the software.
Once you are off factory support for this sort of stuff, what you have becomes useless. As China is nowe discovering with advanced chip design software (which the US has embargoed).
Then you also have the problem of spare parts and ammunition resupply. You won’t find second sources for these.
Thank you.
I was really thinking of the cheaper stuff such as the SAM’s, and in particularly the replacement for the ‘Stinger II’, and also something like the rather old but still useful 81mm mortar.
From Heston Services on the M4 both Heathrow and for that matter Twickenham are well within range of an 81mm. “Five rounds fire for effect” than back of up North. (Spotting to be done by mobile phone.)
Why do you assume they would be from ‘up North?’ Surely a group from Luton could just as effectively launch an attack on their local airport from the comfort of their back garden. This would be just as devastating and headline grabbing but would also show them to be a responsible terrorist organisation. No travel equals no carbon footprint. And the authorities would be too busy looking for a Right wing terror group to catch them anyway.
Isn’t Luton “up North”?
Actually ‘they’ are spoilt for choice as you rightly say. It is only a matter of time, unfortunately.
You say “they”. Does that means you’re not personally involved then Charlie? I’m almost disappointed.
No, but presumably you are?
Yes.. working hard towards a peaceful resolution..
Yes.. working hard towards a peaceful resolution..
No, but presumably you are?
The dreaded “Weapons of Aerial Destruction!”
Who do we invade to stop them?
Too late now, sadly.
Too late now, sadly.
You say “they”. Does that means you’re not personally involved then Charlie? I’m almost disappointed.
The dreaded “Weapons of Aerial Destruction!”
Who do we invade to stop them?
Isn’t Luton “up North”?
Actually ‘they’ are spoilt for choice as you rightly say. It is only a matter of time, unfortunately.
Sounds like your plans are well advanced there Charlie..
Are yours?
Well under way! Behind the scenes peace negotiations don’t ye know!
Well under way! Behind the scenes peace negotiations don’t ye know!
Are yours?
Why do you assume they would be from ‘up North?’ Surely a group from Luton could just as effectively launch an attack on their local airport from the comfort of their back garden. This would be just as devastating and headline grabbing but would also show them to be a responsible terrorist organisation. No travel equals no carbon footprint. And the authorities would be too busy looking for a Right wing terror group to catch them anyway.
Sounds like your plans are well advanced there Charlie..
Thank you.
I was really thinking of the cheaper stuff such as the SAM’s, and in particularly the replacement for the ‘Stinger II’, and also something like the rather old but still useful 81mm mortar.
From Heston Services on the M4 both Heathrow and for that matter Twickenham are well within range of an 81mm. “Five rounds fire for effect” than back of up North. (Spotting to be done by mobile phone.)
A transfer to terrorists is as likely as with any other NATO country–except that a nation under existential threat is even less likely to lose it than anyone else.
They like to shoot down Russian helos.
‘Sinbad’ has a LOT of cash and the Ukrainians like the Russians are, as you well know, are notoriously corrupt. 2+2=4.
‘Sinbad’ has a LOT of cash and the Ukrainians like the Russians are, as you well know, are notoriously corrupt. 2+2=4.
Charlie makes s valid point, at last!
Really? What was that?
The level of corruption in Ukraine trumping it’s existential threat. Ukraine is a w***e, a former Russian w***e; now a NATO w***e.. I speak of the leadership of course, not to poor deluded people who are mere pawns in this viscous, satanic, greedy game.
The level of corruption in Ukraine trumping it’s existential threat. Ukraine is a w***e, a former Russian w***e; now a NATO w***e.. I speak of the leadership of course, not to poor deluded people who are mere pawns in this viscous, satanic, greedy game.
Really? What was that?
Charles, I have absolutely no idea.
But it’s worth remembering one thing about “advanced defence kit” that I’d forgotten and it’s this. It’s useless without training, spares, maintenance and support.
A good case in point is the “flight codes” (software packages) for advanced US military jets like the F35. The US can choose what configuration (and upgrades) a customer will get. And likely also issue time-limited licences for the software.
Once you are off factory support for this sort of stuff, what you have becomes useless. As China is nowe discovering with advanced chip design software (which the US has embargoed).
Then you also have the problem of spare parts and ammunition resupply. You won’t find second sources for these.
A transfer to terrorists is as likely as with any other NATO country–except that a nation under existential threat is even less likely to lose it than anyone else.
They like to shoot down Russian helos.
Charlie makes s valid point, at last!
If allowing a people to determine its own borders and elect their own government and decide on their own alliances creates a ‘moral’ problem for you it’s a poor lookout for Scotland and NI then isn’t it?
The whole point of the conflict is that the vast majority of people in the Donbas and Crimea are totally opposed to a corrupt, anti Russian, West leaning Ukraine. They should be allowed to secede, not least because Ukraine used to be what those regions still are. It’s Ukraine minus those regions that has changed thanks to the CIA coup of 2014 and Kyiv caving to NATO’s horrible expansionist policy.
The FBS couldn’t have put it better.
A free and fair plebiscite might be theoretical option, but not at the end of a gun.
Plus the invasion was about asserting control of the whole of Ukraine, probably via a puppet regime after Zelensky killed. So your contention the current conflict was about Crimea and Donbas not true. It might be more so now and Putin shown how risky it is for Ukraine to accept things as they were..
Why not check out reliable US reports, eg from Scott Ritter (via George Galloway or other semi-banned news media). Ritter’s credentials are highly reliable.. no need for me to go to Kremlin / FBS sources.
Why not check out reliable US reports, eg from Scott Ritter (via George Galloway or other semi-banned news media). Ritter’s credentials are highly reliable.. no need for me to go to Kremlin / FBS sources.
Come off it Liam, you sound like some ridiculous old Russian/Commie stooge!
Stick to the Kerrygold Republic, you have enough problems there, or so I hear.
Ah yes, the old diversionary ad hominem tactics when you run out of ideas. This old git ain’t fallin’ for that one Charlie!
Ah yes, the old diversionary ad hominem tactics when you run out of ideas. This old git ain’t fallin’ for that one Charlie!
You seem to have forgotten that we are living in a rule of law democratic country and that Scotland already voted to stay in the UK – something both Alec Slamond and Nicola Sturgeon are on record as saying was “a once in a generation” decision. I’d interpret that as meaning at least one more generation of SNP leadership then. If Scotland really wants to be independent (which I frankly doubt when it comes to the crunch).
But that’s all just whataboutery on your part. This is nothing to do with the UK.
Just sort out one awkward detail for me please. If this conflict is “all about freedom for Donbas and Luhansk” (as you claim), then why did the Russians launch their main attack on Kiev ? And what was all the “de-Nazification” stuff (curiously, we don’t hear about that any more – I wonder how it’s going ?) all about ?
Very interested to hear your explanation for that !
1. The orders to smash Donbas separatists came from Kyiv, obviously hence the genocidal killing of 14,000 over 8 years since 2014. When you’re lashed by the dragon’s tail you go for the head. Duh..
2. We hear little about the (clearly) N¤zi Azov battalion now largely because they were all but annihilated in Mariupol and elsewhere.
A generation.. one generation reproducing the next. How long before we are sexually mature enough to make a baby? 15 years? possibly even less. Have we forgotten what the word generation means?
1. The orders to smash Donbas separatists came from Kyiv, obviously hence the genocidal killing of 14,000 over 8 years since 2014. When you’re lashed by the dragon’s tail you go for the head. Duh..
2. We hear little about the (clearly) N¤zi Azov battalion now largely because they were all but annihilated in Mariupol and elsewhere.
A generation.. one generation reproducing the next. How long before we are sexually mature enough to make a baby? 15 years? possibly even less. Have we forgotten what the word generation means?
You just keep repeating Russian propaganda.
Fact is that there was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991.
Both Donbass and Luhansk voted over 80% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for it.
So there was never majority for for these region to be part of Russia.
The FBS couldn’t have put it better.
A free and fair plebiscite might be theoretical option, but not at the end of a gun.
Plus the invasion was about asserting control of the whole of Ukraine, probably via a puppet regime after Zelensky killed. So your contention the current conflict was about Crimea and Donbas not true. It might be more so now and Putin shown how risky it is for Ukraine to accept things as they were..
Come off it Liam, you sound like some ridiculous old Russian/Commie stooge!
Stick to the Kerrygold Republic, you have enough problems there, or so I hear.
You seem to have forgotten that we are living in a rule of law democratic country and that Scotland already voted to stay in the UK – something both Alec Slamond and Nicola Sturgeon are on record as saying was “a once in a generation” decision. I’d interpret that as meaning at least one more generation of SNP leadership then. If Scotland really wants to be independent (which I frankly doubt when it comes to the crunch).
But that’s all just whataboutery on your part. This is nothing to do with the UK.
Just sort out one awkward detail for me please. If this conflict is “all about freedom for Donbas and Luhansk” (as you claim), then why did the Russians launch their main attack on Kiev ? And what was all the “de-Nazification” stuff (curiously, we don’t hear about that any more – I wonder how it’s going ?) all about ?
Very interested to hear your explanation for that !
You just keep repeating Russian propaganda.
Fact is that there was Ukrainian independence referendum in 1991.
Both Donbass and Luhansk voted over 80% to be part of Ukraine.
Even Crimea voted 54% for it.
So there was never majority for for these region to be part of Russia.
This is clearly the most sensible arrangement and an agreement could have been reached last April in Istanbul if the UK and US hadn’t stopped it. There are 8 million ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine who don’t want to be part of the new Ukraine. Unfortunately I think Putins next move could be to annex the whole of Eastern Ukraine with the Dnipro as the border. We’ll soon find out over the next couple of weeks as Putins mass invasion takes place.
Well, he may have another crack at it. I must say that you seem surprisely certain that he would succeed. He’s not done very well so far.
Has anyone asked those 8 million whether they want to be part of Ukraine or part of Russia? Other than at the wrong end of a Russian gun of course.
And, an annexation of a territory does not have to be accepted by the other side, as has already be proven in Kherson oblast. Putin saying it’s part of Russia doesn’t mean anything at all.
Well, he may have another crack at it. I must say that you seem surprisely certain that he would succeed. He’s not done very well so far.
Has anyone asked those 8 million whether they want to be part of Ukraine or part of Russia? Other than at the wrong end of a Russian gun of course.
And, an annexation of a territory does not have to be accepted by the other side, as has already be proven in Kherson oblast. Putin saying it’s part of Russia doesn’t mean anything at all.
An intelligent solution. But Putin will never allow an independent Ukraine while he lives.
A Ukraine free to join the EU (with ot without NATO) is an existential threat to Putin’s regime. It would very quickly be far more attractive to Russians than his own.
Just as with Venezuela, Iran, and to some extent China, very poor and very ignorant Russians are far easier to rule than well-off Russians.
Indeed, Putin’s ultimate horror is that he might one day actually have to hold a fair election.
And he sees that as a betrayal of Russia’s 800-years history.
..what planet did you say you’re living in?
..what planet did you say you’re living in?
For 20 years, whenever Putin has paused, it’s been just that. A pause. If his lips are moving, he’s lying. Russia will not stop until it is *forced* to stop. He will not “live” with anything.
How much of that “advanced defence kit” has already been ‘acquired’ by Sinbad & Co?
And how long before we see it being launched from the M25 in the general direction of Heathrow? Or even Windsor Castle?
If allowing a people to determine its own borders and elect their own government and decide on their own alliances creates a ‘moral’ problem for you it’s a poor lookout for Scotland and NI then isn’t it?
The whole point of the conflict is that the vast majority of people in the Donbas and Crimea are totally opposed to a corrupt, anti Russian, West leaning Ukraine. They should be allowed to secede, not least because Ukraine used to be what those regions still are. It’s Ukraine minus those regions that has changed thanks to the CIA coup of 2014 and Kyiv caving to NATO’s horrible expansionist policy.
This is clearly the most sensible arrangement and an agreement could have been reached last April in Istanbul if the UK and US hadn’t stopped it. There are 8 million ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine who don’t want to be part of the new Ukraine. Unfortunately I think Putins next move could be to annex the whole of Eastern Ukraine with the Dnipro as the border. We’ll soon find out over the next couple of weeks as Putins mass invasion takes place.
An intelligent solution. But Putin will never allow an independent Ukraine while he lives.
A Ukraine free to join the EU (with ot without NATO) is an existential threat to Putin’s regime. It would very quickly be far more attractive to Russians than his own.
Just as with Venezuela, Iran, and to some extent China, very poor and very ignorant Russians are far easier to rule than well-off Russians.
Indeed, Putin’s ultimate horror is that he might one day actually have to hold a fair election.
And he sees that as a betrayal of Russia’s 800-years history.
For 20 years, whenever Putin has paused, it’s been just that. A pause. If his lips are moving, he’s lying. Russia will not stop until it is *forced* to stop. He will not “live” with anything.
I wouldn’t slavishly and gullibly believe all of the West’s propaganda if I were you. We all know reports for both sides need to be taken with a large grain of salt!
You’re not balanced though LM. You make a number of apologist arguments for brutal invasion and murder. I don’t say ‘you’ are an apologist as that’s not appropriate but you have pushed such arguments without the countervailing point.
ACHTUNG : HEALTH WARNING.
He’s an Irish ‘nutter’ of the Communist persuasion, possibly the last of his kind.
Oh do shut up Charlie.. it is you that is the last of your kind.. still living in the glory days of the long lost empire and deluded on almost every situation with a mindset that belongs in the 19th century.
Oh do shut up Charlie.. it is you that is the last of your kind.. still living in the glory days of the long lost empire and deluded on almost every situation with a mindset that belongs in the 19th century.
That is true and I should have been more balanced.. however, when 90% of the assertions on this platform are little more than Western propaganda I remain an almost lone voice in my attempts to create some semblance of balance.
For the record..
I condemn Russian aggression and brutality just as much as I condemn Ukrainian aggression and brutality. My thoughts and prayers are with the people and ordinary soldiers on both sides who are mere pawns in this sick game.
I still contend that the war was caused by NATO expansion and CIA orchestrated coup and failure to uphold Minsk Accord.
What followed was totally predicable, viz…
Immediate annexation of Crimea.
Separatist rebellion in Donbas.
Persecution of the separatists: 14,000 dead.
Support for the separatists.
Invasion of separatist region.
Attack on NATO puppet regime.
Attack on AZOV held Mariupol region.
..and soon to come…
Utter destruction of Ukraine.
All could have been avoided.
ACHTUNG : HEALTH WARNING.
He’s an Irish ‘nutter’ of the Communist persuasion, possibly the last of his kind.
That is true and I should have been more balanced.. however, when 90% of the assertions on this platform are little more than Western propaganda I remain an almost lone voice in my attempts to create some semblance of balance.
For the record..
I condemn Russian aggression and brutality just as much as I condemn Ukrainian aggression and brutality. My thoughts and prayers are with the people and ordinary soldiers on both sides who are mere pawns in this sick game.
I still contend that the war was caused by NATO expansion and CIA orchestrated coup and failure to uphold Minsk Accord.
What followed was totally predicable, viz…
Immediate annexation of Crimea.
Separatist rebellion in Donbas.
Persecution of the separatists: 14,000 dead.
Support for the separatists.
Invasion of separatist region.
Attack on NATO puppet regime.
Attack on AZOV held Mariupol region.
..and soon to come…
Utter destruction of Ukraine.
All could have been avoided.
You’re not balanced though LM. You make a number of apologist arguments for brutal invasion and murder. I don’t say ‘you’ are an apologist as that’s not appropriate but you have pushed such arguments without the countervailing point.
Who’s a sucker for propaganda now? Propaganda comes to us from two directions!
Regardless of whether the military scheme is practical, it may well be that conceding Luhansk and Donbas is in Ukraine’s best interests if it results in a stable, unified Ukraine without significant Russian separatists and with a pro-Western concensus. Something stable that can be rebuilt without further Russian threats and which will be a reliable Western ally (the last thing the West needs is to be shipping advanced defence kit into a country that might get chunked up again by Russia).
The best outcome here is one where there are no “frozen conflicts” and a stable equilibrium which both sides can live with is reached. At some point, we need to set aside the morality.
I wouldn’t slavishly and gullibly believe all of the West’s propaganda if I were you. We all know reports for both sides need to be taken with a large grain of salt!
Who’s a sucker for propaganda now? Propaganda comes to us from two directions!
A hare-brained scheme.
The only reason Putin’s failed invasion got as far as it did was because many thought he didn’t intend to invade. No such thinking now.
Any Russian units of considerable size would have to be shipped by rail. Even if they used (inferior) Belarusian armour in-country, there is no way to hide such a large concentration. Western and Ukraine intel would learn about it weeks in advance, and prepare.
So is Luttwak on Ukraine’s side, suggesting a plan that brings fresh disaster to Putin’s cascading failures?
(30 Russian armoured vehicles destroyed just yesterday in Vuhledar, BTW)
Assumes also Lukashenko feels secure enough to acquiesce. Been interesting that to date he’s done v little, and thus suggestive that while he supports his Russian friend he wants to keep a bit of distance.
Have you forgotten the initial attack on Kyiv? All Lukashenko has done is keep his own troops out of the war.. big deal!
No evidence they launched from Belarus LM. They certainly had troops stationed there before but I’m fairly certain subsequent fact checking confirmed they didn’t actually launch across border from Belarus territory. There was some misreporting.
Of course being able to concentrate there before invasion may have been of assistance, but probably also informative they didn’t go across the Belarus/Ukraine border and it’s remained like that. Intriguing for sure.
Check your Atlas.. very hard to attack Kyiv from the north, west of the Dnipro river without going through Belarus! ..actually no, not hard: impossible!
Check your Atlas.. very hard to attack Kyiv from the north, west of the Dnipro river without going through Belarus! ..actually no, not hard: impossible!
He allowed that when he thought Putin’s heist would work.
Lukashenka now wishes he could join the other former Soviet republics and be rid of Russia.
Indeed, he now probably wishes he could set up the Belarusian equivalent of Kazakstan’s “Tents of Invincibility” in Kyiv.
Nobody wants to side with a loser.
Then he’ll remain a fervent supporter of Russia, as he has always been. He’s even sicker than Zelenskyy!
Then he’ll remain a fervent supporter of Russia, as he has always been. He’s even sicker than Zelenskyy!
No evidence they launched from Belarus LM. They certainly had troops stationed there before but I’m fairly certain subsequent fact checking confirmed they didn’t actually launch across border from Belarus territory. There was some misreporting.
Of course being able to concentrate there before invasion may have been of assistance, but probably also informative they didn’t go across the Belarus/Ukraine border and it’s remained like that. Intriguing for sure.
He allowed that when he thought Putin’s heist would work.
Lukashenka now wishes he could join the other former Soviet republics and be rid of Russia.
Indeed, he now probably wishes he could set up the Belarusian equivalent of Kazakstan’s “Tents of Invincibility” in Kyiv.
Nobody wants to side with a loser.
Pretty obvious tactic.. not all that smart really. Behind the scenes he’s in lock-step with Putin. Don’t forget the Kyiv assault came through Belarus. If push comes to shove, like puppet clown Zekenskyy on the other side of this sick game he’ll have no choice but to kowtow!
Have you forgotten the initial attack on Kyiv? All Lukashenko has done is keep his own troops out of the war.. big deal!
Pretty obvious tactic.. not all that smart really. Behind the scenes he’s in lock-step with Putin. Don’t forget the Kyiv assault came through Belarus. If push comes to shove, like puppet clown Zekenskyy on the other side of this sick game he’ll have no choice but to kowtow!
Assumes also Lukashenko feels secure enough to acquiesce. Been interesting that to date he’s done v little, and thus suggestive that while he supports his Russian friend he wants to keep a bit of distance.
So the only possible end to the fighting is something Ukraine and most of the US-European alliance (to the extent they are allied) will not accept?
Since he won’t go away and because his own people haven’t the will or wherewithal to de-throne him, the West may indeed have to throw Putin some kind of concessionary bone, a face-saving foothold. But perhaps not one as meaty as this war-games article suggests. That sounds like too much capitulation, especially having come this far. And is anyone persuaded that a thus-indulged Putin will then behave himself, keeping his toes and imperial dreams inside the lines?
I came across these today which were interesting, haven’t read the rand report just scrolled over it, interesting analysis of the different ways the us thinks this might play out, a few extracts:
The RAND Corporation issued a new report that warns against a “protracted conflict” in Ukraine and says a prolonged war is against US interests, breaking from the view of many hawks in Washington that the US should support the fight against Russia for the long term.
RAND is funded directly by the US military and often shapes US policies, including hawkish ones toward Moscow. A 2019 report titled “Extending Russia” examined the risks and benefits of ways the US could try to “extend” Russia, and many of those policies have been implemented, including the provision of “lethal aid” to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and “hindering” the country’s gas and oil exports.
When it comes to Ukraine retaking more of the territory that Russia captured, the report says this is only a “less significant benefit” and that “avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control.” It places “weakening Russia” as a greater benefit to the US than Ukrainian gains, but still not worth the risk of a long war
“The US ability to focus on its other global priorities — particularly, competition with China — will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and US military resources,” the report reads.
The conclusion says that due to the political situation in the US, a “dramatic shift” in US policy toward Ukraine is unlikely. But the authors say that “developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with US allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve US interests.”
Source and full article: https://news.antiwar.com/2023/01/30/new-rand-report-says-a-long-war-in-ukraine-is-against-us-interests/
Link to the RAND report: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
Indeed, Sun Tzu said a long war never benefited any state.
But a short war that destroyed a state isn’t very good for that state either.
I suppose it depends if russia gives us a choice. What if they plan it to be a long war?
Of course they plan it to be a long war. While NATO is weakening Russia (is it though?) Russia is weakening NATO as well. The EU is being ruined (as per US policy, Nordstream2 demonstrating that clearly).
It’s a home game to Russia; its economy is doing okay; Putin has never been more popular.. Ever wonder why Putin didn’t go all out on a full-scale war footing? Ever wonder why he pulled back from Kyiv? Ever wondered why Russia withdraws and gives Ukraine those nice “victories”? Let me put it this way: if Putin wanted a short war he went about it in a very ineffective manner. If, on the other hand he wanted a long, never ending war… well, what might he have done do you suppose? ‘know anything about Russia history? They don’t really do short wars..
Of course they plan it to be a long war. While NATO is weakening Russia (is it though?) Russia is weakening NATO as well. The EU is being ruined (as per US policy, Nordstream2 demonstrating that clearly).
It’s a home game to Russia; its economy is doing okay; Putin has never been more popular.. Ever wonder why Putin didn’t go all out on a full-scale war footing? Ever wonder why he pulled back from Kyiv? Ever wondered why Russia withdraws and gives Ukraine those nice “victories”? Let me put it this way: if Putin wanted a short war he went about it in a very ineffective manner. If, on the other hand he wanted a long, never ending war… well, what might he have done do you suppose? ‘know anything about Russia history? They don’t really do short wars..
The Second Punic War* lasted seventeen years and ended in a comprehensive victory for Rome, despite having to deal with the most outstanding Commander in history, Hannibal Barca.
(*218-201 BC, as we now say.)
If it isn’t in us interest to prolong it, that tells me it is in Russias interest to long it out?
Precisely,
Aha.. finally someone has twigged! Well done!
Thank you Mr Mahony, its good to see you are fine form today. I had kind of figured out a long war is possible, just Mr logan and I have been playing at annoying each other for a while (I’ve been enjoying it) to be fair arguably it already is if you count it from 2014.
So, what about this nord stream business then? That could slow the escalation right down. Might even prevent us in Europe getting pulled into a war with China?
Thank you Mr Mahony, its good to see you are fine form today. I had kind of figured out a long war is possible, just Mr logan and I have been playing at annoying each other for a while (I’ve been enjoying it) to be fair arguably it already is if you count it from 2014.
So, what about this nord stream business then? That could slow the escalation right down. Might even prevent us in Europe getting pulled into a war with China?
Precisely,
Aha.. finally someone has twigged! Well done!
He was outstanding, but better than Alexander?
There are still sons in modern-day Pakistan being named Sikander in his honour.
Yes, Alexander is grossly overrated.
As his uncle Alexander of Epirus said, on hearing of his nephew’s Persian victories, whilst he himself was fighting in Italy,
“Tell Alexander whilst he fights women I fight MEN”!*
(* Aulus Gellius – ‘Attic Nights’.)
I detect more than just a hint of jealousy in his uncle’s remark.
The other point worth noting is that if Alexander (of Macedon) hadn’t succumbed to the fever at such an early age, his legacy may well have been even greater.
In fact A of E was KIA a few days later!
As Xenophon & Co had proved seventy years before, the Persian Empire had degenerated into a “paper Tiger”, and its destruction was only a matter of time.
Defeating Carthage was a far greater task, as the historical record clearly shows.
Incidentally Alexander’s fever is thought to have been exacerbated by his alcoholism! Had he lived he may well have come to grief in Italy, just like his Uncle.
He may well have “withered on the vine”!
Darius III is infamous for his retreat from the battlefield, but it’s arguable that Alexander’s crossing of the Gedrosian desert was just as great a feat as Hannibal’s Alpine crossing. I doubt he’d taken the route south-east as an easier option, rather as a means of settling old scores. We’ll never know, but both he, his uncle and Hannibal are rightly remembered for their exploits.
Not to forget his terrifying father Philip!
It was Livy who used to speculate what would have happened if Rome had clashed with Macedon.
I’m sure you can guess the answer.
Not to forget his terrifying father Philip!
It was Livy who used to speculate what would have happened if Rome had clashed with Macedon.
I’m sure you can guess the answer.
He may well have “withered on the vine”!
Darius III is infamous for his retreat from the battlefield, but it’s arguable that Alexander’s crossing of the Gedrosian desert was just as great a feat as Hannibal’s Alpine crossing. I doubt he’d taken the route south-east as an easier option, rather as a means of settling old scores. We’ll never know, but both he, his uncle and Hannibal are rightly remembered for their exploits.
In fact A of E was KIA a few days later!
As Xenophon & Co had proved seventy years before, the Persian Empire had degenerated into a “paper Tiger”, and its destruction was only a matter of time.
Defeating Carthage was a far greater task, as the historical record clearly shows.
Incidentally Alexander’s fever is thought to have been exacerbated by his alcoholism! Had he lived he may well have come to grief in Italy, just like his Uncle.
I detect more than just a hint of jealousy in his uncle’s remark.
The other point worth noting is that if Alexander (of Macedon) hadn’t succumbed to the fever at such an early age, his legacy may well have been even greater.
I doubt that! Alexander was the original “Great Satan”..one of his first acts upon “liberating” a Greek occupied city was to murder all of it’s inhabitants.
Apparently they weren’t quite Greek enough!
Yes, Alexander is grossly overrated.
As his uncle Alexander of Epirus said, on hearing of his nephew’s Persian victories, whilst he himself was fighting in Italy,
“Tell Alexander whilst he fights women I fight MEN”!*
(* Aulus Gellius – ‘Attic Nights’.)
I doubt that! Alexander was the original “Great Satan”..one of his first acts upon “liberating” a Greek occupied city was to murder all of it’s inhabitants.
Apparently they weren’t quite Greek enough!
…We now say BCE Charlie, not BC. Try and get up to date will you. 201 BCE was a long time ago.. even the weapons were different!
How very odd, particularly as the Ancient Greeks (Hellenes) did NOT regard the Macedonians as Greek at all.
As far as I am concerned Liam old chap, 201BC is in fact 308 AUC.
Thus today it is NOT 2023 AD but rather 2532 AUC.
ps. How is Lusitania?
How very odd, particularly as the Ancient Greeks (Hellenes) did NOT regard the Macedonians as Greek at all.
As far as I am concerned Liam old chap, 201BC is in fact 308 AUC.
Thus today it is NOT 2023 AD but rather 2532 AUC.
ps. How is Lusitania?
If it isn’t in us interest to prolong it, that tells me it is in Russias interest to long it out?
He was outstanding, but better than Alexander?
There are still sons in modern-day Pakistan being named Sikander in his honour.
…We now say BCE Charlie, not BC. Try and get up to date will you. 201 BCE was a long time ago.. even the weapons were different!
If you mean Ukraine as “that state” then I have to tell you no one (with the exception of myself and the ordinary people of Ukraine) gives a flying f..k about that unfortunate state! It and it’s 37m people are nothing but meat grinder material and cannon fodder in this sick, satanic game of thrones.
I suppose it depends if russia gives us a choice. What if they plan it to be a long war?
The Second Punic War* lasted seventeen years and ended in a comprehensive victory for Rome, despite having to deal with the most outstanding Commander in history, Hannibal Barca.
(*218-201 BC, as we now say.)
If you mean Ukraine as “that state” then I have to tell you no one (with the exception of myself and the ordinary people of Ukraine) gives a flying f..k about that unfortunate state! It and it’s 37m people are nothing but meat grinder material and cannon fodder in this sick, satanic game of thrones.
I won’t pretend that I know enough to contradict the opinions and analysis of RAND thinktankers on a equal footing of knowledge or expertise. But after reading the opening and concluding section of their 32-page report I’m still about where I was several hours ago: Perhaps throw Putin some kind of bone, but not the bone of his exact choosing.
I think we should do that. I think that is pretty much the consensus of the rand report. As long as russia will accept that now and isn’t planning to long this out. Which they probably are. Then we have the Taiwan business lurking in the background. Interesting times.
I think we should do that. I think that is pretty much the consensus of the rand report. As long as russia will accept that now and isn’t planning to long this out. Which they probably are. Then we have the Taiwan business lurking in the background. Interesting times.
Many people on this platform will say this is just Kremlin/FBS propaganda!! Lol..
I await the onslaught…
Ah here we go, they have just resorted to flagging off my comments again. Lame. Low energy.
Ah here we go, they have just resorted to flagging off my comments again. Lame. Low energy.
I await the onslaught…
Indeed, Sun Tzu said a long war never benefited any state.
But a short war that destroyed a state isn’t very good for that state either.
I won’t pretend that I know enough to contradict the opinions and analysis of RAND thinktankers on a equal footing of knowledge or expertise. But after reading the opening and concluding section of their 32-page report I’m still about where I was several hours ago: Perhaps throw Putin some kind of bone, but not the bone of his exact choosing.
Many people on this platform will say this is just Kremlin/FBS propaganda!! Lol..
The weakness in your case is “..having come this far”. Russia can keep this up forever. It’s what they do. The US/NATO are used to invading weak, sandy, small nations.. Russia is a different kettle of fish. Russia is unbeatable even without its nukes.. and since we must be getting close to “..the last (effective, fighting) Ukrainian” my money is on Russia. A plague on all their houses I say!
I don’t know I have read some that they think nato once mobilised properly would be able to push russia back and that would be the point where nuclear escalation from Russia becomes more likely.
You may be right… but it’ll never happen. Ukraine is so last year now! NATO is saving up for the next gig, China.. it’s due to perform in two years the US are saying.
I saw biden piping about 2025 for war with China, they are loving the balloon story at the moment. Seems a bit of a ruck in Washington over when they should pull out of ukraine, seems they have decided it should be sooner rather than later though.
I saw biden piping about 2025 for war with China, they are loving the balloon story at the moment. Seems a bit of a ruck in Washington over when they should pull out of ukraine, seems they have decided it should be sooner rather than later though.
You may be right… but it’ll never happen. Ukraine is so last year now! NATO is saving up for the next gig, China.. it’s due to perform in two years the US are saying.
My response is that this conflict isn’t what anyone is used to, not for many decades. I don’t look in the mirror and see a warmonger–true, my eyesight is becoming worse–but I no longer find Putin to be a trustworthy geopolitical actor, whereas formerly his overreach/autocracy was better held by established borders. That doesn’t mean we go WWIII up in here, but don’t concede on his terms. Don’t you feel a different sort of threat to Europe (including non-continental pockets) from Russia’s moves?
The “case” that seems persuasive to me is that conceding to Putin doesn’t mean an end to bloodshed but a tense waiting game interrupted by more, perhaps worse violence.
Russia overran Eastern Europe to defeat Naziism.. sure, they then thought they’d seek to control those countries, as a buffer to avoid the next German or French invasion. All old hat now but not entirely irrelevant. The possibility of Russia invading the EU is zero! They couldn’t win and they couldn’t hold it if they did. It is a preposterous notion.
Ireland should be safe. As a descendent of McCourts and Cahills on one side I’m glad (think I’d be even if I wasn’t).
But I think there’s a decidedly nonzero chance for places like Latvia and Estonia. Also consider whether Putin is as shrewd and cautious at 69 as he once was, or whether desperation and megalomaniacal legacy dreams make him a looser cannon. That is, I agree he wouldn’t win, but he might try it.
Ireland should be safe. As a descendent of McCourts and Cahills on one side I’m glad (think I’d be even if I wasn’t).
But I think there’s a decidedly nonzero chance for places like Latvia and Estonia. Also consider whether Putin is as shrewd and cautious at 69 as he once was, or whether desperation and megalomaniacal legacy dreams make him a looser cannon. That is, I agree he wouldn’t win, but he might try it.
Russia overran Eastern Europe to defeat Naziism.. sure, they then thought they’d seek to control those countries, as a buffer to avoid the next German or French invasion. All old hat now but not entirely irrelevant. The possibility of Russia invading the EU is zero! They couldn’t win and they couldn’t hold it if they did. It is a preposterous notion.
Never heard of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and its ‘unbeatable’ army (which was far larger then)?
Russia entered Afghanistan by invitation of its leaders and sent a small expeditionary force there. But you’re correct in that Afghanistan is also unbeatable as we now know. I speak of defeating Russia itself.
Russia entered Afghanistan by invitation of its leaders and sent a small expeditionary force there. But you’re correct in that Afghanistan is also unbeatable as we now know. I speak of defeating Russia itself.
I agree. This is not what I first thought, but now I believe I have a much clearer understand of modern peer warefare.
I don’t know I have read some that they think nato once mobilised properly would be able to push russia back and that would be the point where nuclear escalation from Russia becomes more likely.
My response is that this conflict isn’t what anyone is used to, not for many decades. I don’t look in the mirror and see a warmonger–true, my eyesight is becoming worse–but I no longer find Putin to be a trustworthy geopolitical actor, whereas formerly his overreach/autocracy was better held by established borders. That doesn’t mean we go WWIII up in here, but don’t concede on his terms. Don’t you feel a different sort of threat to Europe (including non-continental pockets) from Russia’s moves?
The “case” that seems persuasive to me is that conceding to Putin doesn’t mean an end to bloodshed but a tense waiting game interrupted by more, perhaps worse violence.
Never heard of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and its ‘unbeatable’ army (which was far larger then)?
I agree. This is not what I first thought, but now I believe I have a much clearer understand of modern peer warefare.
I came across these today which were interesting, haven’t read the rand report just scrolled over it, interesting analysis of the different ways the us thinks this might play out, a few extracts:
The RAND Corporation issued a new report that warns against a “protracted conflict” in Ukraine and says a prolonged war is against US interests, breaking from the view of many hawks in Washington that the US should support the fight against Russia for the long term.
RAND is funded directly by the US military and often shapes US policies, including hawkish ones toward Moscow. A 2019 report titled “Extending Russia” examined the risks and benefits of ways the US could try to “extend” Russia, and many of those policies have been implemented, including the provision of “lethal aid” to Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and “hindering” the country’s gas and oil exports.
When it comes to Ukraine retaking more of the territory that Russia captured, the report says this is only a “less significant benefit” and that “avoiding a long war is also a higher priority for the United States than facilitating significantly more Ukrainian territorial control.” It places “weakening Russia” as a greater benefit to the US than Ukrainian gains, but still not worth the risk of a long war
“The US ability to focus on its other global priorities — particularly, competition with China — will remain constrained as long as the war is absorbing senior policymakers’ time and US military resources,” the report reads.
The conclusion says that due to the political situation in the US, a “dramatic shift” in US policy toward Ukraine is unlikely. But the authors say that “developing these instruments now and socializing them with Ukraine and with US allies might help catalyze the eventual start of a process that could bring this war to a negotiated end in a time frame that would serve US interests.”
Source and full article: https://news.antiwar.com/2023/01/30/new-rand-report-says-a-long-war-in-ukraine-is-against-us-interests/
Link to the RAND report: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
The weakness in your case is “..having come this far”. Russia can keep this up forever. It’s what they do. The US/NATO are used to invading weak, sandy, small nations.. Russia is a different kettle of fish. Russia is unbeatable even without its nukes.. and since we must be getting close to “..the last (effective, fighting) Ukrainian” my money is on Russia. A plague on all their houses I say!
So the only possible end to the fighting is something Ukraine and most of the US-European alliance (to the extent they are allied) will not accept?
Since he won’t go away and because his own people haven’t the will or wherewithal to de-throne him, the West may indeed have to throw Putin some kind of concessionary bone, a face-saving foothold. But perhaps not one as meaty as this war-games article suggests. That sounds like too much capitulation, especially having come this far. And is anyone persuaded that a thus-indulged Putin will then behave himself, keeping his toes and imperial dreams inside the lines?
While Russia does hold most of Luhansk, they only hold, or have ever held, half of Donetsk. Bakhmut is far from the last major city in that oblast. It doesn’t even have much strategic importance since Russia lost Izium and Lyman, yet they’ve been using human wave attacks for months trying to take it. Its only real value to Ukraine is the number of Russian troops being expended trying to take it. In Donetsk, Slovyansk is about 50% bigger than Bakhmut and Kramatorsk is seven times the size of Bakhmut. They already have extensive fortifications built and there are dozens and dozens of smaller villages scattered all over the area for Russia to get bogged down in again and again on the way.
Russia’s army may have more raw numbers, but not with more well-trained and experienced soldiers. Those have already been deeply attrited.
While Ukraine may need western supplies to win a conventional war, Ukraine is still firmly sovereign. What it decides to do when is up to them.
The Russians don’t have enough troops in Belarus to make much of an invasion attempt from there and Ukraine’s northern borders are far more guarded with in depth fortifications than they were in Feb, 2022.
Russia will absolutely not agree to give up the rest of Kherson. If they do, then Ukraine cuts Crimea’s fresh water supply again. It will not agree to give up the rest of Zaporizhzhya. It is the northern portal to Crimea and the southern supply route for Eastern Ukraine.
And do you really think that Russia’s troops will leave the Donbas or that if in a peaceful and proper election has the Donbas wanting to stay (or go back with) Ukraine that Putin would accept that result? Not a chance. That’s why it will never happen until they are militarily driven out.
Ukrainian victory is the only result that might leave them in peace. I only say might, because Putin’s play book means he just negotiates for time and then comes back and back and back. Russia at a negotiating table is meaningless. Russia suffering a humiliating military defeat might lock the bear down long enough for it to start dying from its own internal problems.
‘While Ukraine may need western supplies to win a conventional war, Ukraine is still firmly sovereign. What it decides to do when is up to them’
Not really, see my links above, it will be dictated by the us and Europe fundamentally. They cannot fight without supplies from the west, what supplies are provided entirely affects what they are able to do on the battlefield.
‘That’s why it will never happen until they are militarily driven out.
Russia at a negotiating table is meaningless’
Again, see my link above. It has been widely discussed that there will probably have to be a negotiation. Diplomacy now. Before it’s too late.
The Russians have NOT been using human wave attacks at any point in the war so far
Agreed. These aren’t the classic human wave attacks of Russia in WW2, or China in the Korean War. They usually succeeded after the rifling in the opponent’s machine guns was burned out. Recall an old professor who had that happen to his unit, when he was a young officer in Korea.
Perhaps “suicide waves” is better. Expendable units are sent forward to draw Ukrainian fire. They all die, but Russian arty then has a marginally better chance of killing someone.
Agreed. These aren’t the classic human wave attacks of Russia in WW2, or China in the Korean War. They usually succeeded after the rifling in the opponent’s machine guns was burned out. Recall an old professor who had that happen to his unit, when he was a young officer in Korea.
Perhaps “suicide waves” is better. Expendable units are sent forward to draw Ukrainian fire. They all die, but Russian arty then has a marginally better chance of killing someone.
You seem very well informed so I won’t dispute your assertions; but I do have two questions:
1. What force will drive Russians out of Donbas (and Crimea)? You cannot mean Ukrainian forces surely? Your assertions that Russians are dying like flies and Ukrainians are miraculous remaining virtually unscathed is pie in the sky isn’t it? Ukraine’s army is devastated isn’t it? It is according to US expert Scott Ritter and others not under the yoke of NATO propaganda. So will it be a NATO force inside Ukraine?
2. What makes you think the bear is dying rather than licking a few superficial wounds? Evidence please? A comparison of the numbers and weaponry on either side might say different? I suppose you know Russia is doing okay economically? ..and Putin that has never been more popular?
I am genuinely and openly interested in your response. I’m no apologist for Putin or his murderous regime in case you think otherwise but he’s not the only villain of the piece. Not by a long chalk..
‘While Ukraine may need western supplies to win a conventional war, Ukraine is still firmly sovereign. What it decides to do when is up to them’
Not really, see my links above, it will be dictated by the us and Europe fundamentally. They cannot fight without supplies from the west, what supplies are provided entirely affects what they are able to do on the battlefield.
‘That’s why it will never happen until they are militarily driven out.
Russia at a negotiating table is meaningless’
Again, see my link above. It has been widely discussed that there will probably have to be a negotiation. Diplomacy now. Before it’s too late.
The Russians have NOT been using human wave attacks at any point in the war so far
You seem very well informed so I won’t dispute your assertions; but I do have two questions:
1. What force will drive Russians out of Donbas (and Crimea)? You cannot mean Ukrainian forces surely? Your assertions that Russians are dying like flies and Ukrainians are miraculous remaining virtually unscathed is pie in the sky isn’t it? Ukraine’s army is devastated isn’t it? It is according to US expert Scott Ritter and others not under the yoke of NATO propaganda. So will it be a NATO force inside Ukraine?
2. What makes you think the bear is dying rather than licking a few superficial wounds? Evidence please? A comparison of the numbers and weaponry on either side might say different? I suppose you know Russia is doing okay economically? ..and Putin that has never been more popular?
I am genuinely and openly interested in your response. I’m no apologist for Putin or his murderous regime in case you think otherwise but he’s not the only villain of the piece. Not by a long chalk..
While Russia does hold most of Luhansk, they only hold, or have ever held, half of Donetsk. Bakhmut is far from the last major city in that oblast. It doesn’t even have much strategic importance since Russia lost Izium and Lyman, yet they’ve been using human wave attacks for months trying to take it. Its only real value to Ukraine is the number of Russian troops being expended trying to take it. In Donetsk, Slovyansk is about 50% bigger than Bakhmut and Kramatorsk is seven times the size of Bakhmut. They already have extensive fortifications built and there are dozens and dozens of smaller villages scattered all over the area for Russia to get bogged down in again and again on the way.
Russia’s army may have more raw numbers, but not with more well-trained and experienced soldiers. Those have already been deeply attrited.
While Ukraine may need western supplies to win a conventional war, Ukraine is still firmly sovereign. What it decides to do when is up to them.
The Russians don’t have enough troops in Belarus to make much of an invasion attempt from there and Ukraine’s northern borders are far more guarded with in depth fortifications than they were in Feb, 2022.
Russia will absolutely not agree to give up the rest of Kherson. If they do, then Ukraine cuts Crimea’s fresh water supply again. It will not agree to give up the rest of Zaporizhzhya. It is the northern portal to Crimea and the southern supply route for Eastern Ukraine.
And do you really think that Russia’s troops will leave the Donbas or that if in a peaceful and proper election has the Donbas wanting to stay (or go back with) Ukraine that Putin would accept that result? Not a chance. That’s why it will never happen until they are militarily driven out.
Ukrainian victory is the only result that might leave them in peace. I only say might, because Putin’s play book means he just negotiates for time and then comes back and back and back. Russia at a negotiating table is meaningless. Russia suffering a humiliating military defeat might lock the bear down long enough for it to start dying from its own internal problems.
That seems to make sense, to me anyway (but what do I know on this dastardly subject? zero.). What a pity these settlements cannot be made at the start of wars rather than a year later with 100s of thousands killed, bereaved, homeless etc. Our si-called elites seem to be no more than primitive, vicious, pitiless brutes! How sad and appalling. With AI on the job next time maybe the war can be fought virtually?
Sadly, there are few historical examples where this was not the case. Nationalism generally trumps peace.
Ireland certainly would have been better off under British rule. The status quo of the international order is always best, as was the case in Ukraine from 1991.
It’s nationalists like Eamon, Adolf, and Vova who caused most of the trouble in the 20th and 21st Cs.
Each tried to upset the legal world order, with the result of untold suffering.
The British lost any right to claim Ireland would be better off ruled from London in the 1840s
Even Britain at the moment isn’t doing very well under London rule. I don’t know what they are all playing at down there at the moment.
Even Britain at the moment isn’t doing very well under London rule. I don’t know what they are all playing at down there at the moment.
It’s a point of view but you’re mistaken on Ireland being better off under GB.. of course, initially it was a basket case for 30 years or so; but just compare how NI fared under GB compared to the ROI.. look at the stats.
And the untold suffering was in the 100s of years before independence, eg a million starved to death in the 1840s while food was exported to GB under armed guard.. check out the Penal Laws. How’s that for untold suffering?
The British lost any right to claim Ireland would be better off ruled from London in the 1840s
It’s a point of view but you’re mistaken on Ireland being better off under GB.. of course, initially it was a basket case for 30 years or so; but just compare how NI fared under GB compared to the ROI.. look at the stats.
And the untold suffering was in the 100s of years before independence, eg a million starved to death in the 1840s while food was exported to GB under armed guard.. check out the Penal Laws. How’s that for untold suffering?
Believe it or not, I agree with these antiwar sentiments, except in the roundness of your indictment which makes our leaders more primitive, vicious, pitiless, and brutal than the lot of us, using a broad brush. “My country’s robots can de-program your country’s robots!”
Why not try this–a twist on “let the kings fight one-on-one”?
I’m well up for that!
I’m well up for that!
Sadly, there are few historical examples where this was not the case. Nationalism generally trumps peace.
Ireland certainly would have been better off under British rule. The status quo of the international order is always best, as was the case in Ukraine from 1991.
It’s nationalists like Eamon, Adolf, and Vova who caused most of the trouble in the 20th and 21st Cs.
Each tried to upset the legal world order, with the result of untold suffering.
Believe it or not, I agree with these antiwar sentiments, except in the roundness of your indictment which makes our leaders more primitive, vicious, pitiless, and brutal than the lot of us, using a broad brush. “My country’s robots can de-program your country’s robots!”
Why not try this–a twist on “let the kings fight one-on-one”?
That seems to make sense, to me anyway (but what do I know on this dastardly subject? zero.). What a pity these settlements cannot be made at the start of wars rather than a year later with 100s of thousands killed, bereaved, homeless etc. Our si-called elites seem to be no more than primitive, vicious, pitiless brutes! How sad and appalling. With AI on the job next time maybe the war can be fought virtually?
Bullshit, I say. The Ukrainians are overwhelmingly in support of defending their country from Putin’s aggression. That’s all anyone needs to know. The west, lead by the USA, has every right to support them. We must continue to do so. Professor Luttwak is a shameless appeaser.
Bullshit, I say. The Ukrainians are overwhelmingly in support of defending their country from Putin’s aggression. That’s all anyone needs to know. The west, lead by the USA, has every right to support them. We must continue to do so. Professor Luttwak is a shameless appeaser.
Who could be considered neutral inspectors for plebiscites? Surely the usual inspectors from western democracies that have taken sides against Russia wouldn’t be acceptable to Russia. Would the west consider inspectors from Asian or African countries trustworthy? Even that assumes Russia would accept such conditions to retain control over majority Russian speaking territory.
As usual, we Irish will be called in with our neutrality, peacekeeping record and all round “harmless” reputation.
As usual, we Irish will be called in with our neutrality, peacekeeping record and all round “harmless” reputation.
Who could be considered neutral inspectors for plebiscites? Surely the usual inspectors from western democracies that have taken sides against Russia wouldn’t be acceptable to Russia. Would the west consider inspectors from Asian or African countries trustworthy? Even that assumes Russia would accept such conditions to retain control over majority Russian speaking territory.
There appears to be a lack of clarity when it comes to defining the worth of land to Russia and Ukraine.Does Russia need Crimea,if so why? Can Russia hold Crimea with out occupying parts of Ukraine? Does Russia need water from the Ukraine to hold Crimea?Putin wants Russian speaking areas of Ukraine to be in Russia but are they worth anything, if so why: minerals, factories? etc. Can Ukraine export agricultural products if Russia holds any territory.
Is Putin only interested in increase area of Russia and population? If so will he expend resources on holding land of little value?
How many soldiers will be needed to hold land taken by Russia? What are the skill levels, equipment and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian and Russian armies? What are the casualties and how many can the countries sustain ? What does Putin want and what is he prepared to expend to achieve it ? What is the level of support for Putin amongst those with power in Russia?
Germany lost in WW1 yet there were sufficient people willing to start a war twenty one years later.Does Putin have the support of the mass of the population;if so any truce is likely to be short lived.?
I cannot see any peace occurring unles there is far more clarity on Ukraine’s and Russia’s aims.
My concern is that we do not know and we will have to wait for the result of the next major Russian attack.
I think it’s about a power shift, the east are challenging America. As far as I can tell. That ‘multi polar’ world. Or ‘separate silos’ its sometimes called.
Quote from ‘a new era of strategic competition’ by RAND:
‘The U.S. strategic focus has increasingly turned to major-power competition, but there is currently no framework for understanding U.S. competition with near-peer rivals China and Russia. Drawing on extensive research on the economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions of U.S. strategic competition with these countries, RAND researchers assembled high-level findings and recommendations to support immediate policy decisions to ensure the U.S. competitive advantage’
Current major-power competition is fundamentally about the character of the international system:
-U.S. competition with China and Russia involves multiple intersecting military, economic, and geopolitical interests and has significant implications for the international order.
-China, in particular, is working to reshape dominant international rules, norms, and institutions in addition to growing its military capability.
-The United States remains in a strong competitive position. However, its long-term success depends on maintaining a strong economic posture and willingness to engage economically on an international scale; the alignment of key allies and partners; ideological influence over international rules, norms, and institutions; and a strong global military posture relative to competing powers.
Source:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA290-4.html
People were warning of the increasing complexities of world politics after the collapse of the Iron Curtain in 1990, especially those who had extensive comabt experience in WW2 and colonial conflicts afterwards.
A historian said we we will have to understand pre WW2 politics, another said no pre WW1 politics. If one looks at the divides in Europe, I suggest it as along post Thirty Years War ( 1648)divide; Northern Protestant Commercial Anglo Saxon Nordic, Southern Latin Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox.
Perhaps we should be examining World in the late 16th to 17 th centuries when Mughal and Chinese Empires were at their peak.
The Rand Corporation and the USA appear somewhat slow if they are only now realising the World is reverting to pre Cold war Complexities.
Thank you, yes I really do wonder if America has underestimated the east and underestimated the extent to which China and Russia may co operate. They seem to have been treating the whole thing like China and Russia are separate issues almost, I’m not sure obviously, I can only draw that from what I have read myself. The situation does seem incredibly complex at the moment, I don’t think we are always doing enough to address and understand some of these issues perhaps.
Thank you, yes I really do wonder if America has underestimated the east and underestimated the extent to which China and Russia may co operate. They seem to have been treating the whole thing like China and Russia are separate issues almost, I’m not sure obviously, I can only draw that from what I have read myself. The situation does seem incredibly complex at the moment, I don’t think we are always doing enough to address and understand some of these issues perhaps.
People were warning of the increasing complexities of world politics after the collapse of the Iron Curtain in 1990, especially those who had extensive comabt experience in WW2 and colonial conflicts afterwards.
A historian said we we will have to understand pre WW2 politics, another said no pre WW1 politics. If one looks at the divides in Europe, I suggest it as along post Thirty Years War ( 1648)divide; Northern Protestant Commercial Anglo Saxon Nordic, Southern Latin Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox.
Perhaps we should be examining World in the late 16th to 17 th centuries when Mughal and Chinese Empires were at their peak.
The Rand Corporation and the USA appear somewhat slow if they are only now realising the World is reverting to pre Cold war Complexities.
I think it’s about a power shift, the east are challenging America. As far as I can tell. That ‘multi polar’ world. Or ‘separate silos’ its sometimes called.
Quote from ‘a new era of strategic competition’ by RAND:
‘The U.S. strategic focus has increasingly turned to major-power competition, but there is currently no framework for understanding U.S. competition with near-peer rivals China and Russia. Drawing on extensive research on the economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions of U.S. strategic competition with these countries, RAND researchers assembled high-level findings and recommendations to support immediate policy decisions to ensure the U.S. competitive advantage’
Current major-power competition is fundamentally about the character of the international system:
-U.S. competition with China and Russia involves multiple intersecting military, economic, and geopolitical interests and has significant implications for the international order.
-China, in particular, is working to reshape dominant international rules, norms, and institutions in addition to growing its military capability.
-The United States remains in a strong competitive position. However, its long-term success depends on maintaining a strong economic posture and willingness to engage economically on an international scale; the alignment of key allies and partners; ideological influence over international rules, norms, and institutions; and a strong global military posture relative to competing powers.
Source:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA290-4.html
There appears to be a lack of clarity when it comes to defining the worth of land to Russia and Ukraine.Does Russia need Crimea,if so why? Can Russia hold Crimea with out occupying parts of Ukraine? Does Russia need water from the Ukraine to hold Crimea?Putin wants Russian speaking areas of Ukraine to be in Russia but are they worth anything, if so why: minerals, factories? etc. Can Ukraine export agricultural products if Russia holds any territory.
Is Putin only interested in increase area of Russia and population? If so will he expend resources on holding land of little value?
How many soldiers will be needed to hold land taken by Russia? What are the skill levels, equipment and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian and Russian armies? What are the casualties and how many can the countries sustain ? What does Putin want and what is he prepared to expend to achieve it ? What is the level of support for Putin amongst those with power in Russia?
Germany lost in WW1 yet there were sufficient people willing to start a war twenty one years later.Does Putin have the support of the mass of the population;if so any truce is likely to be short lived.?
I cannot see any peace occurring unles there is far more clarity on Ukraine’s and Russia’s aims.
My concern is that we do not know and we will have to wait for the result of the next major Russian attack.
Russia is slowly destroying itself. There’s a weird fondness for declinist analysis in the west, but no country has lost it’s way like Russia has over the last 30 or 40 years.
The Chinese are going to get large areas in the East by default. Putine should have modernised, but he was happy to head up a gangster state living in the ruins of the old USSR, and Russians seem happy to let him.
Russia is slowly destroying itself. There’s a weird fondness for declinist analysis in the west, but no country has lost it’s way like Russia has over the last 30 or 40 years.
The Chinese are going to get large areas in the East by default. Putine should have modernised, but he was happy to head up a gangster state living in the ruins of the old USSR, and Russians seem happy to let him.
Luttwak doesn’t sound Russian
Putin continued to wage war and then continues to get concessions to put him back on his box
This time he’s actually in a real fight and it’s shown him to be a paper tigrt
Now is the time to explode the myth that Russia needs to be accommodated, he must lose and be shown to lose
Nice thought. How do you propose to accomplish that? It won’t be at the hands of a devastated Ukrainian army so is it to be WW3 then? The current war will go down in history as a minor skirmish if that happens! Is that what you want?
Nice thought. How do you propose to accomplish that? It won’t be at the hands of a devastated Ukrainian army so is it to be WW3 then? The current war will go down in history as a minor skirmish if that happens! Is that what you want?
Luttwak doesn’t sound Russian
Putin continued to wage war and then continues to get concessions to put him back on his box
This time he’s actually in a real fight and it’s shown him to be a paper tigrt
Now is the time to explode the myth that Russia needs to be accommodated, he must lose and be shown to lose
Luttwak might have better commented on the spectacle of Putin thrusting raw recruits and/or convicts into the Ukrainian meat grinder, where they inevitably suffer huge casualties.
The latest videos from Vuhledar show some 30 Russian armored vehicles destroyed, with numerous dead and wounded. The video is not for the faint-hearted. See Strelkov’s telegram channel for one of the few honest pro-Russian assessments:
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
No one can train up a competent combined arms unit within a few months. Certainly not one that expects to go on offence.
Most of Putin’s “mobiks” with previous military experience aren’t even fighting in the sort of units for which they were trained. Artillerists complain of being made infantry, etc.
Putin is destroying the Russian Army.
And may soon destroy Russia itself.
That’s war when fighting a near peer. I think the years of fighting be-sandled AK wielding farmers have completely distorted our view of what war is. A company caught out in the open with bad recon intel, this is what happens in a real war against a competent enemy. Rear echelons being told to grab their guns and join the fight at a critical moment sounds like desperation to save the moment, but cannot be particularly unusual in such situations. Vuhledar was clearly a defeat, but I think that 30 vehicles and 150 men will not be regarded as anything other than significant and causing a rethink of tactics (take a look at the book “The Russian Way of War).
One thing I am realising is that Ukraine is probably the best army in the world right now. Russia is learning quickly. The Western armies would be absolutely slaughtered, they are completely unprepared and would not be able to sustain any kind of effort for more than a few days. The real worry is when it comes down to this additional intervention, it will be the West reaching for the big red button out of desperation.
That’s war when fighting a near peer. I think the years of fighting be-sandled AK wielding farmers have completely distorted our view of what war is. A company caught out in the open with bad recon intel, this is what happens in a real war against a competent enemy. Rear echelons being told to grab their guns and join the fight at a critical moment sounds like desperation to save the moment, but cannot be particularly unusual in such situations. Vuhledar was clearly a defeat, but I think that 30 vehicles and 150 men will not be regarded as anything other than significant and causing a rethink of tactics (take a look at the book “The Russian Way of War).
One thing I am realising is that Ukraine is probably the best army in the world right now. Russia is learning quickly. The Western armies would be absolutely slaughtered, they are completely unprepared and would not be able to sustain any kind of effort for more than a few days. The real worry is when it comes down to this additional intervention, it will be the West reaching for the big red button out of desperation.
Luttwak might have better commented on the spectacle of Putin thrusting raw recruits and/or convicts into the Ukrainian meat grinder, where they inevitably suffer huge casualties.
The latest videos from Vuhledar show some 30 Russian armored vehicles destroyed, with numerous dead and wounded. The video is not for the faint-hearted. See Strelkov’s telegram channel for one of the few honest pro-Russian assessments:
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
No one can train up a competent combined arms unit within a few months. Certainly not one that expects to go on offence.
Most of Putin’s “mobiks” with previous military experience aren’t even fighting in the sort of units for which they were trained. Artillerists complain of being made infantry, etc.
Putin is destroying the Russian Army.
And may soon destroy Russia itself.
Russia wins by not defeating Ukraine. All Russia needs to do is take the required territory that has been subsumed into the federation and hold it. Holding it is winning. It will drain Ukraine’s resources. It will drain the West’s resources. It will also drain the West’s willingness to continue and crucially it will take the US to a new President. Putin knows that Zelensky is disposable and the signal from the West is Zelensky being replaced. Leadership change in the US and Ukraine will be the end of the war. With a bit of luck, this will also cause the Greens in Germany to implode as US support completely evaporates.
If Russia does this, Europe’s confidence and military strength will be eroded. The US’s stockpiles of essential basic artillery weapons and ordnance will be greatly diminished. Russia as a nation will be greatly strengthened and a proper balance of power and political accountability in the West will be restored. Okay maybe that is a bit far fetched, but a block can dream – right?
Which do you think has more spending power? NATO is spread across 30 countries, most of them with a much higher GDP per population ratio. They have much more advanced weapons and technology that they can give to Ukraine, and scale up production between them if necessary. The only advantage Russia has is the number of soldiers compared to Ukraine, although if Putin starts conscription from the major cities the populace would likely turn on him.
Which do you think has more spending power? NATO is spread across 30 countries, most of them with a much higher GDP per population ratio. They have much more advanced weapons and technology that they can give to Ukraine, and scale up production between them if necessary. The only advantage Russia has is the number of soldiers compared to Ukraine, although if Putin starts conscription from the major cities the populace would likely turn on him.
Russia wins by not defeating Ukraine. All Russia needs to do is take the required territory that has been subsumed into the federation and hold it. Holding it is winning. It will drain Ukraine’s resources. It will drain the West’s resources. It will also drain the West’s willingness to continue and crucially it will take the US to a new President. Putin knows that Zelensky is disposable and the signal from the West is Zelensky being replaced. Leadership change in the US and Ukraine will be the end of the war. With a bit of luck, this will also cause the Greens in Germany to implode as US support completely evaporates.
If Russia does this, Europe’s confidence and military strength will be eroded. The US’s stockpiles of essential basic artillery weapons and ordnance will be greatly diminished. Russia as a nation will be greatly strengthened and a proper balance of power and political accountability in the West will be restored. Okay maybe that is a bit far fetched, but a block can dream – right?
Pray tell how a plebiscite in an area bombed to smithereens, from which most civilians have been transported, fled, killed, or injured, or who remain in hiding either from the Russian/’local’ occupiers or from Ukrainian troops and officials, could carry any legitimacy? Or why such a ludicrous ‘solution’ would ‘undoubtedly’ have European leaders agreed on a demand for settlement? If you mean Germany and France, you may be right. But Poland, the Czech Republic, the UK, and the Finns and Swedes?
Pray tell how a plebiscite in an area bombed to smithereens, from which most civilians have been transported, fled, killed, or injured, or who remain in hiding either from the Russian/’local’ occupiers or from Ukrainian troops and officials, could carry any legitimacy? Or why such a ludicrous ‘solution’ would ‘undoubtedly’ have European leaders agreed on a demand for settlement? If you mean Germany and France, you may be right. But Poland, the Czech Republic, the UK, and the Finns and Swedes?
And what about Krim?
Let’s face facts.
President Zelensky is correct.
If Russia controls Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and not Ukraine, then the European way of life is over.
Putin would then have a stranglehold over Ukrainian grain shipments and the ability to take ever more territory, such as Moldavia.
You make a most intelligent point.
“European way of life”? I wasn’t aware it was uniform.. didn’t the UK exit because it hated the European way of life? ..and is life really the same in Norway and Hungary? Oh, btw Russia or a large part of its population is also in Europe.
No it didn’t.
¨didn’t the UK exit because it hated the European way of life?¨
Don’t be silly.
Is there really any ‘European way of life’ in the Kerrygold Republic?
It certainly doesn’t look like it from this “sceptred isle”.
Except for half a dozen big cities, they certainly don’t have a European lifestyle. Everywhere else per capita they are a lot poorer than almost every other European nation.
Why else would the mobiks steal flush toilets?
No it didn’t.
¨didn’t the UK exit because it hated the European way of life?¨
Don’t be silly.
Is there really any ‘European way of life’ in the Kerrygold Republic?
It certainly doesn’t look like it from this “sceptred isle”.
Except for half a dozen big cities, they certainly don’t have a European lifestyle. Everywhere else per capita they are a lot poorer than almost every other European nation.
Why else would the mobiks steal flush toilets?
Putin would then have a stranglehold over Ukrainian grain shipments and the ability to take ever more territory, such as Moldavia.
You make a most intelligent point.
“European way of life”? I wasn’t aware it was uniform.. didn’t the UK exit because it hated the European way of life? ..and is life really the same in Norway and Hungary? Oh, btw Russia or a large part of its population is also in Europe.
Let’s face facts.
President Zelensky is correct.
If Russia controls Zaporizhzhia and Kherson and not Ukraine, then the European way of life is over.
If Russia enters via Belarus the poles will intervene.
How? Polish troops into Ukraine? Is that speculation on your part or declared policy?
Haven’t you heard? Russian troops already came through Belarus in the first attack on Kyiv!! You need to revise your history and/or geography!
Only they didn’t. Fact check it or see my earlier point.
Only they didn’t. Fact check it or see my earlier point.
How? Polish troops into Ukraine? Is that speculation on your part or declared policy?
Haven’t you heard? Russian troops already came through Belarus in the first attack on Kyiv!! You need to revise your history and/or geography!
If Russia enters via Belarus the poles will intervene.
Two thoughts:
Firstly, why assume Putin would be happy with just the Donbas. Has he not be dreaming of recreating the Soviet empire for the last 20 years?
Secondly, why assume Ukraine would willingly concede the Donbas and Crimea.
For Ukraine the mineral riches of the Donbas are huge and valuable. Without them they can never become a wealthy country. Incidentally, I believe that certain Russian oligarchs have already been allocated various shares of this mineral wealth should Putin prevail.
Whilst the Crimea is important strategically for Ukraine and it pushes the Russian navy out of Sevastopol.
It is not necessary to have mineral resources to be a rich country. Examples: Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Switzerland, … . In fact, there are numerous cases where abundant natural resources have proved the opposite (Congo, Venezuela, Russia, …).
Separate point: Russia doesn’t actually have a navy worth bothering about these days. China’s building new aircraft carriers. Russia has an old wreck called the Admiral Kuznetzov. Russian navy: yesterday’s men.
In fact it has yet to recover from the Battle of Tsushima.
In fact it has yet to recover from the Battle of Tsushima.
Zelensky is selling off his part of the Ukraine to his mates in Blackrock and JP Morgan
It is not necessary to have mineral resources to be a rich country. Examples: Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Switzerland, … . In fact, there are numerous cases where abundant natural resources have proved the opposite (Congo, Venezuela, Russia, …).
Separate point: Russia doesn’t actually have a navy worth bothering about these days. China’s building new aircraft carriers. Russia has an old wreck called the Admiral Kuznetzov. Russian navy: yesterday’s men.
Zelensky is selling off his part of the Ukraine to his mates in Blackrock and JP Morgan
Two thoughts:
Firstly, why assume Putin would be happy with just the Donbas. Has he not be dreaming of recreating the Soviet empire for the last 20 years?
Secondly, why assume Ukraine would willingly concede the Donbas and Crimea.
For Ukraine the mineral riches of the Donbas are huge and valuable. Without them they can never become a wealthy country. Incidentally, I believe that certain Russian oligarchs have already been allocated various shares of this mineral wealth should Putin prevail.
Whilst the Crimea is important strategically for Ukraine and it pushes the Russian navy out of Sevastopol.
If Russia invaded through Belarus, seriously threatening the integrity of Ukraine the Poles may invade Belarus in response.
No they won’t. No nation is going to risk outright war, especially when simply arming the Ukrainians has proved effective so far
Arguably we are already at risk of outright war. Russia has already said it is ‘nearly a real war’ between Russia and the west. Ukraine have claimed they are ‘defacto’ nato members.
Ms Emery in 1914 it was about 10 old ‘duffers’ who took us to War, this time it looks like only 2!
Pair of absolute nutters I feel. It’s all very well the us and boris saying what their plans are, I don’t expect China and Russia give two hoots, I think we are playing with fire.
Pair of absolute nutters I feel. It’s all very well the us and boris saying what their plans are, I don’t expect China and Russia give two hoots, I think we are playing with fire.
If NATO got involved properly Russia would be driven from Ukraine in a matter of weeks. It would lose control of the skies in days and then it’s antiquated kit would be pushed back to its borders easily
At which point arguably russia would resort to battlefield nukes.
At which point arguably russia would resort to battlefield nukes.
Ms Emery in 1914 it was about 10 old ‘duffers’ who took us to War, this time it looks like only 2!
If NATO got involved properly Russia would be driven from Ukraine in a matter of weeks. It would lose control of the skies in days and then it’s antiquated kit would be pushed back to its borders easily
Arguably we are already at risk of outright war. Russia has already said it is ‘nearly a real war’ between Russia and the west. Ukraine have claimed they are ‘defacto’ nato members.
No they won’t. No nation is going to risk outright war, especially when simply arming the Ukrainians has proved effective so far
If Russia invaded through Belarus, seriously threatening the integrity of Ukraine the Poles may invade Belarus in response.
Mr. Luttwak seems to be gradually, if reluctantly, talking himself into accepting reality and the inevitable. We still have the obligatory derogatory comments, but compared to his last piece, the whistling-in-the-dark triumphalism is gone. His “solutions” would have been realistic in April 2022, before the US ordered Zelenskiy to abandon peace negotiations and the collective West decided to seek the decision on the battlefield. Where it will now come.
Mr. Luttwak seems to be gradually, if reluctantly, talking himself into accepting reality and the inevitable. We still have the obligatory derogatory comments, but compared to his last piece, the whistling-in-the-dark triumphalism is gone. His “solutions” would have been realistic in April 2022, before the US ordered Zelenskiy to abandon peace negotiations and the collective West decided to seek the decision on the battlefield. Where it will now come.