France's winter of discontent is coming (CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images)
France is another country. They do things differently there.
A “tale of two crises” has unfolded in the last few days on the southern and northern shores of the English Channel. Both crises flow, in part, from the high rates of inflation caused by the Ukraine war and the retreat of the Covid pandemic.
In Britain, where inflation is just over 10%, a political crisis wrapped in a financial crisis has threatened to destroy the private pensions system on which millions depend. A chancellor was ejected after a few weeks in office; another prime minister has gone. Britain, though, has so far escaped civil unrest.
On Tuesday in France, however, (with inflation running at “only” 6%) there were around 200,000 people on the streets. A strike for higher pay by oil refinery workers has made petrol and diesel scarce and have spread to the railways, the Metro, schools and other public services.
Some have suggested this could be the start of a “new May 1968” or the “Popular Front” rebellion of the Thirties which gave French workers higher wages and paid holidays. It could mark the beginning of a generalised revolt, both in streets and in parliament, which could destroy President Emmanuel Macron’s second term. His Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, was obliged this week to resort to emergency powers to push her government’s 2023 budget through the National Assembly. Losing his parliamentary majority in the legislative elections in June (two months after winning presidential re-election) is coming back to haunt him.
But there’s a fundamental difference between the crises afflicting France and Britain. What has happened in the UK in the last few days is bizarre and unprecedented. What is happening in France is more or less normal — for France — after three years in which social unrest has been largely paused. Macron’s first term was littered with such protests, first by the Gilets Jaunes and then by union marches and strikes against pension reform.
The Gilets Jaunes rebellion of 2018-9 was very unusual — at first. It started in the apolitical, lower-middle and working classes of the countryside and outer suburbs. It was eventually hijacked by the metropolitan anti-state and anti-everything far-Left. “Fake” Gilets Jaunes and their anarchist allies dressed in black were active once again on the margins of the Paris marches this week, vandalising “capitalist” banks and burning “capitalist” litter bins.
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Subscribe“Britain, though, has so far escaped civil unrest.”
Protestors blocking the roads repeatedly and motorists sitting in the resultant traffic jams, shouting at them and occasionally dragging the odd protestor out of the way. Why are the British so bleedin’ patient, and passive? Is it like the queuing thing?
Because not being patient can lead to worse consequences. Rarely does civil unrest result in a good outcome for the populus.
Jeez you sound like my wife Linda, and that ain’t a compliment. (Fortunately she doesn’t read Unherd!)
Your wife seems like an eminently sensible woman.
Yeah probably ensured I avoided doing too many daft things over the years. Gawd knows what I’d do at the front of those traffic queues stopped by protesters.
”In recent days, his Prime Minister and other ministers have been belatedly urging all employers to consider wage rises — on top of the bonuses and the splurge of state-spending to dampen inflation.”
The dreaded ‘Wage – Price Death Spiral.
So to stop unrest from inflation the government is giving in – QE, Wage Rises, subsidizing Billions of fuel costs… Same will happen in USA, and everywhere once unrest begins – called a ‘Pivot’. A death spiral being fed – bad times ahead.
Inflation is cause by printing money. ie. QE
Of course it is. But we are not allowed to say that.
Enter Putin stage left and, viola! The pols have their punching bag.
“They spent €100 billion this year and plan to spend another €45 billion in 2023 to keep down the price of petrol, diesel, domestic gas and electricity. France has the lowest inflation rate in the EU — an annual rate of 5.6% in September, compared to 9.9% in the Eurozone as a whole. ”
But as Lichfield goes on to say, this lower inflation rate has been purchased by the state subsidy on electricity and fuel prices, the key drivers of inflation. It all lands on the national debt.
“It all lands on the national debt”….which eventually causes more inflation as they print more money to “pay” for it.
Exactly. The price went up. The inflation happened. They just deferred the bill, changed who will be paying more and manipulated the inflation measure.
Paying down the national debt? Interesting concept. The day is coming when the annual interest payment on the US national debt will exceed GDP. You can’t borrow any more because you can’t pay interest. It’s a roadmap to the Weimar Republic: Print increasingly worthless currency and collapse. Those who fail to heed economics will have economics thrust upon them.
What we’re witnessing is the slow-motion train derailment that is the collapse of the post-Cold War neoliberal consensus. In nearly every western nation, the globalists are under siege from both right and left. When faced with civil disorder, and let’s remember the primary purpose of all governments at all levels is to maintain civil order, weak willed politicians will bow to public pressure in order to avoid outright rebellion. These ‘compromises’ will gradually erode the policies that have enabled and empowered the current neoliberal order. At the same time, attending to the immediate needs of domestic populations is likely to be at the expense of international goals like free trade, etc. as the human instinct to ‘take care of our own’, and/or ‘put our own house in order’ overrides all other concerns. The US no longer has the economic power or the political capital to intervene, and a significant portion of Americans are tired of the expenses of being a hegemon falling upon them while the benefits continue to enrich the top 1%. Expect no help from here, as there’s a strong possibility that unless the economy makes a major turn in the next two years, we’re likely to see the return of Trump or someone quite similar in 2024. Moreover, the powerful US military establishment is laser focused on China at the moment and the conflict between the world’s two largest economies will continue at everyone’s expense because there is almost no political pressure outside of big business (who themselves are becoming political pariahs in many corners) in the other direction. The end result of all of this will be a multipolar world characterized by resurgent nationalism, increased tension between nations, and an increased reliance on limited political/economic alliances between individual nations or regional blocs who share economic synergies and similar political objectives.
Majority of British people are wimps and as long as the footie or Corrie street is on will put up with anything while moaning about how nothing changes.
Wrong!! The police treat these protesters like royalty and the “harmed” public like criminals. I only ride a trike thesedays but if any protester tries to stop my freedom of movement they may not live to regret it. The last protest on the QE2 bridge would have been better handled by ignoring them and letting the traffic through. Once the protesters realised that they were wasting their time up there they would go home. If any of them had fallen then that would be a bonus for the geater British public.
The author is not form Stoke-on-Trent you know
Whenever I contemplate the state of affairs in my country, Canada, I can always count on France to prove that, yes in fact, things could be worse.
Have you been looking to your immediate south lately?
From my perspective here in the US, as bad as things are here Canada seems a tad worse.
I’m also American, but it’s an arguable point. Is true believer Trudeau better or worse than sock puppet Biden? At least Canada doesn’t have to absorb tens of thousands of migrants every day. Perhaps we should start imitating Mexico and sending them north.
Whaat? Not another one…
Brenda