by Freddie Sayers
Tuesday, 19
July 2022
News
15:25

Tory leadership latest: Liz Truss becomes the favourite

Polling triggered an anti-Penny campaign in the media
by Freddie Sayers

We’ve had two pieces of information in the past hour on who will be the next prime minister. First, Kemi Badenoch is out — after an extraordinarily successful campaign, leaving Rishi Sunak to face either Liz Truss or Penny Mordaunt. Second, the poll of Conservative party members that matters most, YouGov, has been re-run and the results are very different to last week.

It reveals that the membership are making up their minds day by day on the candidates they will shortly be asked to consider. The commanding lead Penny Mordaunt had over all her rivals last week has been lost — she now trails both Liz Truss (and Kemi Badenoch, as it happens) in direct head-to-heads. The question of whether the polling triggered the massive anti-Penny campaign in the Right-leaning media will never be answered, but either way it seems to have worked.

Credit: YouGov

What has not changed since last week, however, is that Rishi Sunak currently loses to both Truss and Mordaunt. And by a healthy margin. Of course he might gradually win them over in the long forthcoming campaign, but this is a big mountain to climb. It seems a fair working assumption that he will lose to whomever he is put up against. The betting markets certainly seem to have concluded as much, with Truss rushing into the favourite position within minutes:

This makes the decision of the next 48 hours all the more important for Conservative MPs. Who would you be content, even if not overjoyed, to see as prime minister? You should do whatever you can to make sure it is that person on the ballot alongside Sunak.

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Katharine Eyre
Katharine Eyre
20 days ago

If Liz Truss is the answer, then you are asking the wrong question.
Also not convinced by Mordaunt. I can understand why people don’t like Sunak but out of the three, he is by far the most convincing and professional.

Prashant Kotak
Prashant Kotak
20 days ago
Reply to  Katharine Eyre

Agreed. I’m not enthusiastic about Sunak, he is a tad unctuous, but of the ones left he is the best bet. With my tecchie/engineer hat on it’s a question of risk mitigation – who can repeatedly execute the best risk management amongst potentially multiple unpalatable options. The UK is a first tier western nation, and as such not the type of country that can afford someone who will jog along and then suddenly make one catastrophic error. While Truss will be ok on foreign policy, I’m less than convinced she can navigate a very difficult economic landscape upcoming. I wouldn’t be confident with Mourdant on either foreign policy or economic management. Having said that, Sunak gives all the indications of a high quality technocrat and nothing more – I see no longer term vision at all.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
19 days ago
Reply to  Prashant Kotak

Whichever female is PM she will put Sunak (some some other competent bean counter) in as CotE thereby plugging that gap. Sometimes a good leader is one who listens rather than dominate – Mordaunt is more likely to do that: Lix Truss is a loose cannon!

Arkadian X
Arkadian X
20 days ago

Anyone but Mordaunt, thank you very much.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
19 days ago
Reply to  Arkadian X

Ah: what’s wrong with Penny then? She’s easily the prettiest!

Matt M
Matt M
20 days ago

Personally I think Sunak will end up winning. He is just more polished than Liz Truss and the two are not actually far apart politically (despite what the commentators say).

Shame about Kemi though. She would have been the start of something new and good I think. Her time will come, I’m sure.

As to Starmer, he seems evenly matched with Rishi and Liz, so we will see what happens at the next GE.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
19 days ago
Reply to  Matt M

If the economy tanks, and it will, the next GE be a “no contest”. But just to be on the safe side I’m hoping it’ll be Liz Truss: she’ll surely wreck the economy!

Last edited 19 days ago by Liam O'Mahony
Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
19 days ago
Reply to  Matt M

If Sunak appoints Badenoch to a very senior cabinet position, the best result will be achieved

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
19 days ago

..especially if she’s put in charge of the new part of a divided Treasury as she proposed herself, ie the one that promotes development and growth.

Mike Michaels
Mike Michaels
20 days ago

Sunak wins and it’s CBDC incoming. Closely followed by social credit system. Truss wins and it’s war with Russia. Choose your poison! The end result is the same!

Last edited 20 days ago by Mike Michaels
Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
19 days ago
Reply to  Mike Michaels

..and either way the economy goes down the toilet! So much to look forward to if you want to live in “interesting times”..

Iris C
Iris C
19 days ago

You must be joking!! Liz Truss is a lightweight. I am not a member of any political party but I am sure Conservative members will not find Liz Truss Prime Minister material.

Liam O'Mahony
Liam O'Mahony
19 days ago

Clear evidence of vote skullduggery I think? Sunak fancies his chances more against Truss than Mordaunt so he has lent her votes. It would serve him right if the two women now ended up shunting him aside! As a Labour supporter I’m rooting for Liz Truss: she’ll make rhe Tories unelectable fir a generation! Yipee!