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Will RFK Jr’s supporters flock to Trump?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks in Phoenix, Arizona today. Credit: Getty

August 24, 2024 - 8:00am

Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s presidential campaign has sputtered to a premature end, with the scion of America’s most famous political dynasty throwing his support behind fellow elite “outsider” Donald Trump. It’s a move that smacks of political opportunism, yet it may prove consequential in what promises to be another nail-biting election.

Kennedy’s departure from the race was as messy and contradictory as his campaign. He framed his decision as a noble sacrifice to avoid playing spoiler, while simultaneously painting himself as a victim of a vast Democratic conspiracy. “In my heart, I no longer believe that I have a realistic path to electoral victory in the face of this relentless systematic censorship and media control,” Kennedy declared, sounding for all the world like a man who at least realised that tilting at windmills is exhausting work.

The irony, of course, is that Kennedy’s quixotic bid was fuelled by the very media ecosystem he now decries. His campaign found fertile ground in the swampy corners of the internet where vaccine sceptics and political outsiders thrive. Now he’s asking his supporters to follow him into Trump’s welcoming arms, a pivot that would be shocking if it weren’t so predictable.

But will Kennedy’s ragtag band of followers actually heed his call? That’s the million-dollar question keeping political operatives up at night. Recent polling from the Pew Research Center paints a picture of a supporter base that’s about as cohesive as a sandcastle at high tide. Kennedy’s base skews young, is politically disengaged, and is deeply dissatisfied with both major parties. In other words, they’re the kind of voters who might just as easily stay home on election day as pull the lever for Trump.

The Trump campaign is nonetheless excited at the prospect of inheriting Kennedy’s supporters, with the GOP candidate’s campaign manager suggesting their votes could make a difference in the “purple” states of the Rust Belt. They’re banking on the idea that anyone drawn to Kennedy’s brand of outsider politics will naturally gravitate towards Trump’s “drain the swamp” rhetoric. It’s a neat theory, but one that conveniently ignores the yawning ideological chasm between Kennedy’s Left-leaning environmentalism and Trump’s enthusiasm for fossil fuels.

Leading Democrats, for their part, are putting on a brave face. They’re dismissing Kennedy’s endorsement as irrelevant, arguing that his support was always more mirage than oasis. It’s a comforting narrative, but one that ignores the very real discontent that fuelled the independent’s campaign in the first place.

The truth, as is often the case in American politics, likely lies somewhere in the murky middle. Kennedy’s supporters aren’t a monolithic bloc, and they’re unlikely to move en masse to either camp. Some will undoubtedly follow Kennedy to Trump’s doorstep. Others may grudgingly return to the Democratic fold, “voting blue no matter who”. And a not-insignificant number may simply throw up their hands and tune out of the whole sorry spectacle.

Kennedy himself would do well to remember the cautionary tale of Chris Christie. The former New Jersey governor went all in on Trump early in the 2016 primaries, only to find himself frozen out when the cabinet spoils were divvied up. Christie’s journey from MAGA attack dog to vocal critic should serve as a stark warning to Kennedy about the perils of hitching one’s wagon to the Trump train.

But for now Kennedy seems content to play the role of political martyr, railing against a system he claims is rigged while simultaneously trying to influence its outcome. It’s a contradiction worthy of the political moment we find ourselves in, where the line between insider and outsider, establishment and anti-establishment, has become so blurred as to be almost meaningless. One thing, at least, is now certain: in the funhouse mirror of American politics, even the most quixotic of quests can manage to cast a long shadow.


Oliver Bateman is a historian and journalist based in Pittsburgh. He blogs, vlogs, and podcasts at his Substack, Oliver Bateman Does the Work

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Benjamin Greco
Benjamin Greco
20 days ago

When RFK fist announced I was hopeful he would be a true alternative to Trump or Biden. Unfortunately, with every passing week he was revealed to be a serious loon. He belongs with Trump and Vance on the delusional right.

T Bone
T Bone
20 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

Kind of hard when the Democratic Party colludes with the Media to irreparably tarnish his reputation while protecting their hand selected candidates from tough questions.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
19 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

What do you find delusional about Vance?

Martin M
Martin M
19 days ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

The fact that he thinks he is a Working Class Hero is delusional.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
19 days ago
Reply to  Martin M

Icky comment. Inspirational escape from a miserable childhood and for some people, that ain’t good enough.

Benjamin Greco
Benjamin Greco
19 days ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Yale graduate, tech millionaire, disciple of Peter Thiel. Damn right thinking he is a working-class hero is delusional.

Dr E C
Dr E C
18 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

So if you’re born poor you have to stay poor to be deemed as working class?

Micael Gustavsson
Micael Gustavsson
18 days ago
Reply to  Dr E C

If you leave the class you were born in, you are obviously no longer part of that class. “Working class” denotes the role you play in the economic system.

Martin M
Martin M
17 days ago
Reply to  Dr E C

No, but you can’t obviously sell out to the “tech billionaire” class. You should keep some humility and empathy.

Warren Trees
Warren Trees
16 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

So, anyone who comes from dirt poor and becomes a success is delusional?
And if anyone thinks RFK Jr. is a loon has not watched his speech….https://youtu.be/n15oCfLdmXI

Micael Gustavsson
Micael Gustavsson
13 days ago
Reply to  Warren Trees

No, he is delusional, not for succeeding, but for thinking he belongs to the working class. He has changed class.

Benjamin Greco
Benjamin Greco
19 days ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Cat Ladies.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
19 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

It was a wisecrack three years ago. That this is even a story is unserious.

Benjamin Greco
Benjamin Greco
19 days ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

You keep being deluded. It revealed character. He is a rank opportunist. If Harris made a remark as dumb you would be on your high horse telling everyone how terrible she was. Politics doesn’t make strange bedfellows; it make hypocrites.

Dr E C
Dr E C
18 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

Harris has said so much worse, including that she’s ‘proud’ of a r*pist, just because he’s black (Jacob Blake).

Martin M
Martin M
19 days ago
Reply to  Benjamin Greco

I’m surprised that it took you weeks to discover that RFK Jr was a serious loon.

Brian Matthews
Brian Matthews
20 days ago

Of course Chris Christie is a special case because there was bad blood with Jared, with Jared being the aggressor.

Shocking that things like that can’t be set aside, considering the titanic importance of the work at hand. But I guess normal people can’t identify with the (demented and petty) impulses of people who occupy the highest levels of power.

Arthur G
Arthur G
19 days ago

Anyone who likes RFK should realize that Kamala is the true threat. Trump was President for four years, and the only Fascism came from Fauci and the left.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
19 days ago

I would think most RFK supporters who were leaning Democrat shifted after Harris entered the race. Not sure how many will vote for Trump.

Geoff W
Geoff W
19 days ago

Nobody would give a crap about this “outsider” if his name wasn’t Kennedy.

j watson
j watson
19 days ago

What a marriage. Narcissists aren’t great life partners so they do often have to scrape for the leftovers. Alot of money of course can cover up the cracks… for a while.
I see Trump promised to release all the JFK assassination files as part of this ‘love-in’. Of course he promised this before and didn’t do it making the issue even more intriguing. It would be one small upside if he wins, but would you trust him to follow through?

Cathy Carron
Cathy Carron
19 days ago
Reply to  j watson

In discussing ’narcissism’ you’ve neglected to include myriad Hollywood types that litter the Democrat Party…

Stephanie Surface
Stephanie Surface
19 days ago

People call Kennedy a loon and outsider. Has anybody read his brilliant book? His thoughts on the unproven and ineffective COVID vaccination was spot on. Kennedy was critical of the lockdowns and school closures, which proved to be a disaster and increased the huge suicide rates of young people. His concern about children’s food is spot on, and the US had one of the highest COVID death rates, because of its massive obesity problem.
I have my doubt about his so-called Green Policies and his belief in Man Made Climate Change. There he will have massive conflicts with Trumps “drill baby drill” …

Cathy Carron
Cathy Carron
19 days ago

Kennedy correctly pointed out the illiberal and undemocratic means and millions of dollars the Democrats used to push him out of the race. Jill Stein and MaryAnne Williamson have also decried the Democrats tactics in this regard towards them as well. Ironically, the Democrats who have been shouting to the rafters that they are out to ‘Save Democracy’ have done anything but.

Dave Canuck
Dave Canuck
19 days ago

In fact the vaccines were quite effective at reducing severe illness and death later on, but not the transmission, but by the time it came out after a year the virus had killed alot of people, mostly seniors. We were lucky this time (unlike the 1918 influenza) it did not attack young people severely and kill them in under a week.
As for the obesity problem, it’s not so much children’s food as people’s diets (excessive fast foods, junk foods , oversized portions and sugar) that is the main culprit. Garbage in, sickness out. But RFK is certainly right about the environmental catastrophe in the works. But having said that, he is another aging boomer who should exit the scene, like Trump, it’s time for a new generation to take over. Enough damage done already.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
19 days ago
Reply to  Dave Canuck

Have you studied the research from Calley & Casey Means?

Stephanie Surface
Stephanie Surface
19 days ago
Reply to  Dave Canuck

How do you know that the vaccine prevented severe illness? There is proof that many vaccinated people had to go to hospital with severe COVID. If you are heavily overweight or obese your immune system is severely damaged.
Also you need to sort out children’s diets first, so they don’t become early sugar addicts and diabetics. Listen to the recent Tucker Carlson discussions with two very accomplished young doctors. It is an eye opener.
Why should RFK exit the scene, if he still has very interesting things to say. He should be in charge of Public Health in a Trump Admin.

Jamie
Jamie
19 days ago

I concur listen to the interview with the Dr Mead; listen and learn.

Rob N
Rob N
19 days ago

In fact RFK Jr suggested people listen to Tucker’s interview with Calley and Dr Casey Means.

Dave Canuck
Dave Canuck
19 days ago
Reply to  Dave Canuck

Tucker Carlson eh, where freaks of the world unite. It would be funny if it wasn’t so pathetic

Jane Hewland
Jane Hewland
18 days ago
Reply to  Dave Canuck

You speak very confidently about matters that are not and probably never can be resolved with any certainty. The virus had evolved – as viruses do – to far less lethal forms by the time the vaccines were available. And the dry tinder effect – virus killing the most vulnerable elderly – had already happened by then. So we can never know how much the vaccines did or did not do to help. As for the “environmental catastrophe”…?

Rob N
Rob N
19 days ago

I am sure that Kennedy disagrees with Trump over oil etc but realises that issue is completely insignificant compared to the Big Business and Dem censorship, child mutilating complex.

Warren Trees
Warren Trees
16 days ago
Robbie K
Robbie K
19 days ago

His campaign found fertile ground in the swampy corners of the internet where vaccine sceptics and political outsiders thrive.

Got a chuckle that did since he is quite popular on this very site.

Josef Švejk
Josef Švejk
19 days ago

It is good to see the Kennedy Gang come to an ignominious end. Strong institutions like the Democratic Party need to be rid of nepotism. Trump is welcome to Robert Kennedy. Another example of the born to rule is Caroline Kennedy, the present US Ambassador to Australia. She is rarely seen south of the equator and serves her country poorly. Birth should not be a decider of position.

Cathy Carron
Cathy Carron
19 days ago
Reply to  Josef Švejk

Trump is clearly into ‘big tent politics’ expanding his tent to include Elon Musk, David Sachs (and other Silicon Valley executives), Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamey, JDVance, etc etc….it’s rather an interesting, intellectual and powerful grouping.

Saul D
Saul D
19 days ago

The challenge to the Democrats is not that Kennedy takes his supporters with him, but, firstly, that he breaks the narrative of Trump the fascist dictator. If Trump is that bad, how come Kennedy took his side?
The second challenge is that Kennedy brings the message that the Democrats are evil and underhand. (Jill Stein is also complaining about Democrat manipulations to keep people off the ballot and off MSM) creating the optics of a coalition against ‘demonic’ Democrats and the Deep State.
I have a feeling this has a potential to be a big attack vector, helped by Kamala’s unnatural, over-coached speech. With no press-conferences or journalists able to ask her questions there’s a sense mirror-mirror-on-the-wall as Democrats attempt to over-constrain and over-control opinions without challenge.

Martin M
Martin M
17 days ago
Reply to  Saul D

If Trump is that bad, how come Kennedy took his side? Because Kennedy is a lunatic.

0 0
0 0
19 days ago

Any DNC partying sure came to an end early thanks to this. And it remains to be seen whether Chicago alienated more than it attracted.

As said here, far from clear how RFK support will fall out. Like the candidate, that’s been on the wane for a while anyway, the speech yesterday offered plenty of evidence how and why. No wonder Harris wasn’t minded to be seen discussing offering him a deal.

But Kennedy’s ‘suppressed by the liberal Establishment’ narrative certainly echoes Donald and offers him a desperately needed lifeline. Shame that Robert couldn’t proffer that without making such a sorry spectacle of himself.

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
19 days ago
Reply to  0 0

“Any DNC partying sure came to an end early thanks to this”
Hardly, sport. The DNC was a triumph and the decision of a lunatic to end his campaign to support an idiot will barely have been noticed.

Jae
Jae
19 days ago

Mr Bateman has no idea who his audience is, that’s clear from this snotty, condescending piece. I could stay with MSM and get this kind of dismissive coverage. Denigrating RFKJ as simply a loon is lazy and sophomoric, it’s what I’d expect from the spoiled brats at NYT or WaPo.

I am here to find some in depth, nuanced reporting. This isn’t it.

Neither was Freddie’s and Emily Jashensky’s analysis of Kamala Harris’ speech at the DNC. They called the whole shebang “Normal”. WTH, it’s normal to have abortion clinics and vasectomies available along with morons dressed as the morning after pill?? Plus they skated by the incongruity of how Harris got to where she is, and the vile methods used to do it. RFKJ covered it though, thankfully.

All this is incredibly disappointing from Unherd.

jerome mcnicholl
jerome mcnicholl
19 days ago
Reply to  Jae

Couldn’t agree more on your assessment of this truly cynical article….thanks

Simon S
Simon S
19 days ago

Exactly

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
19 days ago
Reply to  Jae

You’d rather just be spoon-fed the standard right wing nonsense apparently.
Unfortunately the facts are not in your favour!

Lesley van Reenen
Lesley van Reenen
19 days ago

No, unfortunately this sort of writing attracts you like a fly to a piece of ….. Then we have to tediously scroll past all the drivel you come up with.

Chipoko
Chipoko
18 days ago
Chipoko
Chipoko
18 days ago

Applause!

laura m
laura m
19 days ago

We will vote AGAINST lies and corruption. Yours included.

Chuck Burns
Chuck Burns
19 days ago

RFK Jr is placing himself in danger. If, by some error in counting the votes, the Democrats and deep state let Trump win and RFK begins to drain his assigned portion of the swamp his life will be in jeopardy. Big Pharma, Big Tech, the CDC, the FDA, and government bureaucrats were all willing to kill us all with the gene altering mRNA concoction. What will they do to one man who threatens their profits, control, and power?

Simon S
Simon S
19 days ago
Reply to  Chuck Burns

He knows that as well as anyone. But he’s a warrior.

Colorado UnHerd
Colorado UnHerd
18 days ago
Reply to  Simon S

He IS a warrior. I’m appalled that the Biden Administration withheld Secret Service protection from him as long as it did, given that precedent exists (Obama) for providing it to presidential candidates much earlier. That was certainly justified for a Kennedy threatening power structures.
I’m now cynical enough to think that the Democratic establishment didn’t care whether RFK, Jr. got killed, and perhaps would have (quietly) rejoiced. Certainly, it wanted to saddle his campaign with the high cost of private security. Either supports its aim of eliminating his threat to the Dems staying in power — the prime directive — though I can scarcely imagine a psychic blow more damaging to the already diminished American people than another Kennedy assassination.

Colorado UnHerd
Colorado UnHerd
19 days ago

This article is beneath UnHerd’s usual standards; the writer seems not well informed, and also needlessly (and inaccurately) dismissive. For starters, Kennedy encourages his supporters in non-swing states to vote for him, which they will; this goes unmentioned. The media he rightly decries are influential formerly-mainstream-now-progressive-lapdogs such as the NYT and NPR, not “the swampy corners of the internet.” His “ragtag band of followers” include millions of Americans of all ages; Bateman is at least correct to say they are not a monolithic block. Many dedicated volunteers are older, well-educated, well-informed and obviously politically engaged enough to think for themselves. That they managed to get Kennedy on 24 state ballots — with 21 additional awaiting confirmation — is little short of a miracle given the obstacles thrown in his path by ballot access requirements, a well-heeled, litigious Democratic Party establishment and their mouthpiece media. Finally, Kennedy’s campaign has not been any more “messy and contradictory” than that of other candidates, whom he has outshone in his willingness to be interviewed and to debate.
Open-minded, independent, politically informed UnHerd readers will probably already have heard Kennedy’s full speech — not just the predictable sound bites — suspending his campaign. But here it is, for those readers who may have missed it:
div > p:nth-of-type(4) > a”>PD VD 001B POV H1A I1 M1 16×9 2 1 (youtube.com)

Alex paps
Alex paps
19 days ago

Hear hear. This is a piece of shallow, second hand msm writing dolled up with some “clever” wording. Had the writer bothered to watch any one of RFK’s long form interviews, or indeed followed the relentless and deeply cynical DNC lawfare against his campaign, he would not have written this. Substandard Unherd!

Rob N
Rob N
19 days ago

What a strange article! This doesn’t smack of political opportunism at all rather the difficult but inevitable decision of a principled man who sees that Trump, though imperfect, is vastly preferable to the Dem Fascists.

This is clearly the most important election of the last 60 years or so.

Champagne Socialist
Champagne Socialist
19 days ago

One aging nepo baby lunatic and failure decides to support another old silver spoon loser and clown.
Who cares?

Alex paps
Alex paps
19 days ago

This is a piece of shallow, second hand msm writing dolled up with some “clever” wording. Had the writer bothered to watch any one of RFK’s long form interviews, or indeed followed the relentless and deeply cynical DNC lawfare against his campaign, he would not have written this. Substandard Unherd!

J D
J D
18 days ago

The only contradiction here is that this journalist can’t see that the system is rigged yet writes as if with god like powers of perception. This guy should be writing for the New York Times or some other similar bloated and self righteous rag.