July 22, 2024 - 5:30pm
It was only a matter of hours after Joe Biden gave up his re-election bid and endorsed Kamala Harris that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr provided an attention-grabbing response. In a speech yesterday evening, Kennedy attacked both main parties for being “captured by corporate money” and losing any “authentic connection to the American people”. The Democrats, he claimed, had tried to “hide” Biden’s deteriorating condition from the public while using their power to stifle competition within the party.
The question now is whether Kennedy can exploit the chaos and uncertainty spreading through Democratic circles. Indeed, with Harris receiving Biden’s blessing before a primary battle, the independent candidate has a golden opportunity to portray the contest as an undemocratic choice thrust upon voters by party elites.
It’s a narrative tailor-made for Kennedy’s brand of populist outsiderdom. In his speech, he positioned himself as the only “pro-environment” and “pro-civil rights” candidate who can beat Donald Trump, referring to polls in which he leads hypothetical head-to-head matchups. Meanwhile, he is clearly hoping to seize this moment of upheaval to grab disaffected Democrats and independents by portraying Harris as an unelected establishment pawn.
The scion of America’s most famous political dynasty is comfortable leaning hard into historical parallels, using his speech to draw a direct line between the upcoming Democratic convention and the infamous 1968 gathering in Chicago. Back then, following the assassination of his father Robert F. Kennedy just after winning the crucial California primary, the party establishment coalesced around insider favourite Hubert Humphrey. RFK Jr yesterday stated that Mayor Richard Daley “tried to fix” that convention for Humphrey, resulting in chaos that tore the party apart and led to Richard Nixon’s election.
However, he could score major points with Left-leaning Democrats by drawing a contrast with former prosecutor Harris on issues such as criminal justice reform and drug policy. Kennedy, a recovering addict himself, has proposed holding Alcoholics Anonymous meetings in the White House and wants to use his story to refocus attention on America’s addiction crisis. He has advocated for increasing Medicaid funding for rehabilitation, arguing that it’s more cost-effective than treating chronic diseases or relying on emergency-room care.
This is in stark contrast to Harris’s record as a tough-on-crime prosecutor in California, where she oversaw a “school-to-prison pipeline” and fought to keep nonviolent offenders incarcerated. However, she has since evolved on these issues. During her brief 2020 presidential run, she advocated for marijuana legalisation and overall criminal justice reform. As Vice President, she has supported Biden’s pardons for federal marijuana possession and called for rescheduling cannabis “as quickly as possible”.
On foreign policy, too, Kennedy has an opening. In his speech, he portrayed the Biden/Harris ticket as “war hawks” on Ukraine and China, while positioning himself as the peace candidate who would prioritise diplomacy and de-escalation over “forever wars”. He claimed that Vladimir Putin has offered to settle the Ukraine war on terms “enormously beneficial to the Ukrainian people and to the American people and to our security in Europe”, and alleged that Biden sent Boris Johnson to force Volodymyr Zelensky to tear up an agreement in April 2022 which prolonged the conflict.
The question now is whether Kennedy can translate this particular moment of political upheaval into real momentum. He’s still a long-shot candidate by every measure, lacking the party infrastructure and financial resources of his rivals. Getting on the ballot in all 50 states as an independent remains a herculean task, and he’s yet to qualify for the televised debates that could give him a national platform.
Kennedy’s sudden emergence as a credible threat stems from the power vacuum left by Biden’s departure. With Harris thrust into the spotlight without the benefit of a primary campaign to hone her message and build grassroots support, Kennedy has a unique opportunity to position himself as the true heir to the populist mantle that propelled both Trump and Bernie Sanders to prominence in 2016.
As a candidate in the 2020 Democratic primaries, Harris struggled to connect with voters during an underwhelming campaign. What’s more, she lacks Biden’s blue-collar appeal and may be left exposed by her progressive stances such as her endorsement of the controversial 1619 Project, which frames American history through the lens of slavery and systemic racism. While this plays well with elements of the Democratic base, it could alienate moderate and independent voters.
Kennedy, who has positioned himself as an outsider despite his famous name, could potentially peel off disaffected Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans who are wary of both Trump and what they perceive as the Democratic establishment’s embrace of “woke” ideology. His approach to racial issues, which focuses more on economic inequality than systemic racism, might appeal to voters uncomfortable with Harris’s more explicitly race-conscious rhetoric.
Whether Kennedy — or any other outsider candidate — can capitalise on this moment of chaos remains to be seen, but he’s certainly not going to let it pass without taking his best shot. A space has emerged on the American political spectrum, and RFK is well-positioned to fill it.
Oliver Bateman is a historian and journalist based in Pittsburgh. He blogs, vlogs, and podcasts at his Substack, Oliver Bateman Does the Work
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SubscribeWhy don’t the Democrats just hold a debate with all potential candidates including RFK Jr? Nah, that would make too much sense.
What, and have voters decide instead of the party machinery? You heretic!
Just so long as the Moderator asks a question about the worm in RFK Jr’s brain.
The moment has already passed. The Dems, for the most part, have already coalesced around Harris, and the party/media machine that shielded the ageing Biden will now promote her. The fix is in.
What does Kennedy think the Ukrainians are fighting so hard for to remain independent? Why would they want to live in a police state? Putin is an autocrat who punishes anyone who challenges him in any way. They end up dead (He is especially fond of poison followed closely by bodies falling out of buildings.) or in Siberia. Even Western journalists and basketball players find themselves find themselves in prison. I fully understand why they fight for their freedom. I once admired Kennedy when he was a lawyer for environmental causes, but when I learned about his personal life that changed. He is largely responsible for his wife’s suicide. He cheated on her with a number of women and tormented her. Quite a few women have accused him of sexual assault, and he admits it: “I am what I am.” He makes Trump look like a choirboy. I just want my president to have a moral compass.
I think Rfk Jr is a much better person now than Trump is now, though Trump is such a good political artiste. I don’t think Rfk Jr can be responsible or largely responsible for his ex-wife’s suicide. It takes two to click. There is a likelihood that he did that people accused him of but no matter how hurtful his actions were in his past marriage, the other spouse most likely had problems as well. For adultery, you can leave you can get compensation you can do lots of things. You don’t have to commit suicide. That’s a personal choice one has to bear. What I care about is whether Rfk Jr can revitalize government, bring good initiatives for the community and take big money out of government. XO
Given that he is a complete nut-job conspiracy theorist, I doubt he can do any of those things.
RFK Jr is the one guy who makes me think that a second Trump term might not be so bad.
The Kennedy family has long been relegated to the outer fringe of American Politics and has no power in the Democratic Party. RFK was not even given the courtesy of Secret Service protection by a Democratic administration, despite the assassinations of his father and uncle. Like it or not, an American President cannot effectively administer the Executive Branch of government without robust connections to the highly-networked elites who wield true power in the U.S. Were Kennedy to be elected he would be stymied at every turn, not in the same style that Trump was, but to the same effect.
From far away in Australia, JFK Jr is the candidate that would bring esteem back to the US.
The world is laughing at Harris. She is a lightweight DEI candidate, which is going to backfire badly.
The world shakes their head at Trump, whilst secretly enjoying the endless entertainment.
Would a real leader please stand up?
I’m not a Democrat, but give Harris credit for at least being a real candidate. In his career as an “environmental lawyer,” AKA opponent of all technological progress, RFK Jr incorporated all of the anti-science beliefs of the left, from nutrition to energy.Now he has broadened his appeal by pulling in the antivax right. THIS is the candidate the world would really find amusing.
Also from far away Australia, I assume you are joking. JFK Jr is barking mad.
One way he would do well is to stand against US support for Israel. I doubt he would go that far but it is not beyond the bounds of the currently political imagination.
I don’t support him anyway, and certainly won’t if that were to be the case. But I am MAGA and would still advise him to take the above position.