October 4, 2024 - 7:00am
It probably won’t be clear for a day or two whether or not this week’s Conservative Party conference actually shook up what has so far been a long but unexciting contest. Triumphs and tribulations that seem significant on the inside may not filter out to the rest of the country — or even to the Tory membership.
One candidate who had a trying few days was Kemi Badenoch, embroiled in a row over maternity pay and with polling suggesting Robert Jenrick is closing the gap with her among members.
Yet on Wednesday afternoon it was she who received the loudest early cheer when the four leadership hopefuls delivered their speeches in the main hall. The enthusiasm of her grassroots supporters seems undimmed, even as a torrid media cycle reinforced the concerns of some MPs about how she would perform as leader of the Opposition.
That gap between members and MPs is the central problem of Badenoch’s campaign. Nearly all available polling forecasts her to win the final round, which is decided by membership votes. Yet it isn’t clear that she can reach that stage. Jenrick currently leads the pack for MP nominations, and there are more than enough votes on the One Nation side of the party to put either James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat in the final.
Should that happen, it will be Badenoch’s responsibility. The MP rounds are a vital round of the process, ensuring that the leader is acceptable to the Parliamentary party and insulating the Tories against their own version of Jeremy Corbyn.
But they could still provide a dilemma for the new leader. Whoever wins is going to inherit an incredibly difficult brief, and getting the Conservative Party fit to contend for office in 2029 is going to involve confronting some unpleasant realities. The mood might have been oddly buoyant in Birmingham, but the membership’s appetite for unpleasant medicine has not yet been tested.
If the new leader becomes unpopular, which is entirely possible, it would be deeply destabilising to have an alternative candidate waiting in the wings. A candidate, say, whom polling suggested would have been the members’ choice, had they been given her as an option. Just think back to Boris Johnson, who loomed over both his immediate predecessor and successors while cultivating broad Conservative support.
Badenoch’s leadership campaign might — almost certainly wasn’t, but might — have been calibrated for this outcome. She largely sat out the first half of the contest, and has sternly refused to be drawn on anything resembling policy.
Her pitch to Birmingham this week had the same broad outline as Jenrick’s, but without the detail. Where he listed five broad areas of focus and a scattering of specific policies to flesh them out, Badenoch promised a bold and comprehensive audit of just about everything — and nothing in particular.
It’s a canny line, given the selectorate. It’s easy enough to say that in office the Tories “talked Right, but governed Left”; much harder is confronting why that happened in the first place. Conservative MPs have been at the vanguard of resistance to constructing everything from homes to prisons to pylons; taxes and immigration kept climbing to fund public spending such as the winter fuel allowance, a payment to the wealthy which Badenoch supports. What’s more, there was a relative lack of attention given over to housing in her speech — despite her holding the post of Shadow Housing Secretary.
Badenoch thus risks falling into exactly the same trap as other recent Tory leaders, from David Cameron onwards. That is: turning easy homilies about lower taxes and a smaller state into concrete cuts to spending and red tape, and translating headline commitments on immigration into gruelling combat with powerful vested interests and the Treasury.
None of that matters, however, if she doesn’t win. Instead, Badenoch might be well-positioned to pose as the party’s “queen over the water”, with her own power base primed to attack whoever becomes Tory leader. If that happens, she’ll always be ready to remind anyone who’ll listen of the grand — if hazy — prizes the Conservatives might have won.
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SubscribeI understand why the author did it, but to see mention of the corrupt, arrogant, smug and talentless snake-oil selling Cameron – in the same sentence as Badenoch’s name – was horrible.
If she chooses Tory leadership over real change, then actually she’s exactly in that mould. They are a busted flush. We need REFORM – because the self-righting Tory gyroscope will take any of these would-be leaders and re-make them in the image of Sir Humphrey….or whoever constitutes the Mandarin class in the party. The only exception to this was Churchill, and that was only because of the war. The real problem is that our war is a slow simmering, cumulative, death by boiling. We are those frogs. And the only viable response is for someone to kick the pan off the stove. Badenoch leads a faction of frogs who are vaguely aware of the bigger picture. But she’s in the pot.
Reform is the answer to precisely nothing. It’s a fan club for a pub bore with the gift of the gab. Farage is not interested in answers. All he cares about, is hoovering up discontent to feed his own ego.
So many Reform voters convinced it’s the second coming. But history tells us a different salutary lesson about emerging parties. The SDP formed as a breakaway from Labour in the 80’s. In the general election of 83 they got 3.5m voters, and then quickly disappeared eventually merging with the Liberal party.
I think Mr Hill is probably right with the hunch that Badenoch is expecting the next opposition leader to fail to get the Tories electable by 2028, so not offering hostages (or should I say “sausages”) to fortune at this time makes perfect sense.
I thought highly of Badenoch until I was informed that her campaign is supported and funded by climate change denier Neil Record, chairman of the ‘global warming foundation’. This swivel-eyed loon should be nowhere near the party.
I believe the correct term is “Global Warming Sceptic”, not “Climate Change Denier” which sounds pejorative.
Really.
Dr. Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, amongst other things said in this letter: “It’s extraordinary that anyone should think there is a climate crisis.
div > p:nth-of-type(3) > a”>https://www.steamboatpilot.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor/letter-no-climate-crisis-why-imperil-our-electrical-system/
Surely “climate crisis” is just advertising spin. You can be concerned about the impact of industrial processes on the environment whilst still being sceptical about forecasts based on models and about proposed solutions based on those forecasts.
Hadn’t heard that. If it is true that means she is even better than I had thought. Come on Kemi.
The GWF are not climate change deniers. They’re just people who question whether gesture politics that have no impact on the problem but pauperise working people are appropriate.
Badenoch is a reminder that “diversity” was always a trojan horse for left-liberal politics to weave itself into every part of society. Here we have potentially the first black Briton with a shot of becoming PM and the diversity grifters in the media and Tory HQ are silent.
That the diversity grifters are not lionising Badenoch suggests one of two things:
1. Badenoch really is not of the left-liberal set, or
2. Badenoch is an unknown quantity to herself and others and has stayed aloof of embrace the party machine in Tory HQ.
The more right-leaning of the selectorate are mindful of the Liz Truss example. PMs are easily removed these days if the establishment decide so. There’s no point associating with and choosing a candidate that the political machine will work to eject, so there is absolutely no chance of a consensus-disrupting candidate being elected leader of the Tory Party. That makes this election an irrelevance. And the complete lack of public interest in the election shows it is an irrelevance.
Which is why I will be voting for REFORM
I hope the diversity grifters are staying silent because they believe that Kemi won’t let her race govern any aspect of her decision making.
She would be a ‘coconut’ to the grifters.
Badenoch would do well to sit this one out and win next time.
And we would all do better if she jumped ship and joined Reform.
And if she doesn’t get the leadership that’s what she should do
I attended both the set piece sessions with the candidates. In the interviews with Christopher Hope James Cleverly was the star performer, which was a surprise. I think he also came top in the set piece speeches but was matched by Kemi who has the best vision for what the Party needs to do and what issues are facing the country. Jenrick is polished but for me at least, uninspiring and would be the wrong choice for leader.
Tom Tugenhat is another polished performer and would make a great Foreign Secretary but lacks the ability to excite an audience and by extension the electorate.
On balance I am backing Kemi who would be a fresh face for a tired and damaged Conservative brand. She is not the finished article but has the next few years to grow into the role. I also think the left would struggle with how to deal with her.
I do hope the MP’s give the membership the chance to vote for her.
We definitely don’t want polished which is another word for ‘more of the same’. The Tories have to realise that people will no longer vote for polished. Action is perhaps the real word.
If they don’t (your last point); my dream scenario is that she leaves for Reform! Fat chance I know, but one must entertain some hope.
I agree, the Conservatives should give Kemi the role but as I have said before all MPs have to behave themselves, no snouts in troughs etc. The Leftist Blob is so powerful now both in Institutions as it is in Media, they have the ability to torment the Conservative Party to destruction.
I’m not really sure how they will dismantle the Labour client state Quangos to produce a small state but one would expect unemployment rise significantly.
At least she does not have a beard…
Many of the quangos are the result of legislation, much of which should be repealed and along with that the quango would disappear.
Cleverly just hasn’t got the inner steel to force through the revolution that is needed in the Party and the country. He was a limp nobody as Home Secretary.
I got the impression Jenrick is more interested in refighting the last election, rather than getting ready for the next.
A watershed moment. The day the Quising Progressive Fake Tories were called out and a KB vision of genuine recovery and renewal was unveiled.
Interesting insight, from someone present. Thanks for sharing.
I would be happy with Jenrick or Kemi, but would have to see whether they can make the Conservative party conservative again, before giving them back my vote.
Kemi Bad Enough
Do I perceive the wit of a Frenchman by any chance ?
Will Kemi Badenoch be a chaotic, priapic, anarcho-bohemian libertine?
Errr…
No.
Unfortunately Kemi had her Andrea Leadsom moment with at least 2 gaffes that whilst possibly good ‘red meat’ for the membership would make MPs fear her judgment lacking – attacking pregnant Mums and saying chunk of civil service be locked up. And apparently she was a little less open to interview than the other candidates, probably indicating further gaffes would have occurred had she been.
She’s drunk the Kool-Aid a bit on the deep state meme too, or at least doesn’t mind playing that card to try and gain favour. It’s a bit of a problem for the Tories – ‘I may have been in power and been ineffectual after all my performative twaddle, but it’s not my fault we didn’t find a way to implement my slogans’. It’s a form of Right wing Woke-ism – failure to take any responsibility or self reflect.
Shame as did quite like her, Shame too for Labour as would have been better for them her brittleness only became more apparent when she was Leader. Tories may well gain late some sense and pick Cleverly as best poss at the moment. With luck they’ll go with Generic and his hand waving and Special Forces are committing crimes brainwave.
As regards Bojo comparison – let’s give Kemi some credit, she’s not a congenital liar.
She was attacking excessive business regulation, not pregnant women. Doh!
And the first form of regulation that came into her mind to highlight her alleged point…err…pregnant women and statutory Mat pay of £186.70 p.w. Crackpot stuff.
Just a matter of time of course before she says something about UK Birth rate being too low and forcing longer term reliance on immigration and the dim-wit comment bites her even more. Smart eh?
“She’s drunk the Kool-Aid a bit on the deep state meme too…”
You made that up. There is no “deep state”, there is a useless, wasteful bureaucracy and a vampiric “third sector” leeching off the taxpayer.
And Tories/Right been in power for 14years. Like I say, the Rights own form of Wokeism ‘ ‘it’s wasn’t us, it was them’. Comical.
I’m not defending the Tories in that comment though am I. I’m pointing out your deliberate misdirection (again). The Tories are deservedly out of power for many reasons, one of them being the failure to remove the burden of this unproductive sector from government.
What do think Starmer will do with it, hand over yet more taxpayers cash?
“A government of service”, hard choices, “difficult road ahead” etc.
You are defending them though AR by agreeing and expounding the Deep state tosh.
Other than perhaps some EDI posts (on which we may well agree) I’ve never read any coherent point you’ve made about how you’d cut a swathe through the public sector, where, how and any implications. It’s just comes across as v performative.
The deep state tosh infantilises folks on the Right. Rather than really have to think through what went wrong, what choices and policies have to be much better developed, it locks them into immaturity and repetitive failure guaranteed.
What argument do I have to make, there is no “deep state”. Can you just for once stop accusing people of things they haven’t said. You are the one writing dissembling nonsense, the endless projection.
Only the left could come up as something as ludicrously absurd, neurotic and self pitying as identity politics. The government is spaffing millions pounds worth of taxpayers money on this garbage, all to useless NGOs, Quangos and “charities”.
What implications are there from removing these wasteful institutions, other than a better functioning government and society. NONE.
Stop wasting everyones time.
Name a couple and how much we save if closed down. You refer to millions. Let’s just test this.
I’m probably with you on some, but I v much doubt it’s the gzillions you would like it to represent. It’s thus largely performative and deflects from proper reflection on the choices needed if you really want to reduce public expenditure.
You’ve run out of arguments (did you even have one) so you are now being deliberately obtuse, repeating the same circular argument over and over.
The only performative nonsense is spending money on loony left wing constructs, so the choice is quite straight forward especially in a time of austerity. There’s no place in government for a “Ministry of Silly Walks”.
NGO’s undermine democracy as well, so it’s a win-win
How long is a piece of string JW. Saving other peoples money is a good thing right (?). Perhaps you or someone you know has a vested interest?
I might find I have a subscription that has changed or one I no longer need. Should I carry on paying for it? The money can be spent on something actually beneficial.
Easier to pay someone £100k to come up with make believe stories than fix the fundamental issues of health, education and infrastructure. Do you honestly think a paper full of “Theory” will solve those issues?
It’s a racket, a confidence trick and it deserves to be called out for what it is.
You really are a Fool. Sustained howling ignorance 24/7.
I do sleep a good 7hrs WM, so I think a little unfair. But nice you popped up to underline the Right Wing Woke tendency.
Kemi needs to position herself so that when the Conservative Party’s ship is finally sunk, she doesn’t go down with it.
What a pile of absolute pus. Badenoch sticks out like a sore thumb among the neutered mediocrities we see everywhere in politics.
We’re in a fight. The entire West is in a fight & she’s the kind of girl I want on my side.
There is no alternative.
Lol you think thw West is going to be saved by an African lady who doesn’t even belong here? People like you are the reasons for our decline
If she doesn’t make the last two the party is dead in the water. She may not be perfect but her heart is in the right place, and she is a scrapper at the despatch box. We need a leader of the Opposition who, day in and day out, can attack this venal, nasty, incompetent Government. Kemi is the best person for that job and she is supported by a majority of the membership. Denied of the chance to cast a vote for their favourite, where will they go?
Come to that, where will Kemi and her MP supporters go. Maybe a trickle of defections to Reform? The latter need to sort out their Trussite economics, but most of their platform makes a lot of sense.
Kemi B is not defining policies, and quite rightly so. What she *is* doing is laying out a set of guiding *values*, something that has been sorely lacking for the last decade or two. The other three are offering policies, which will never see the light of day unless the party regains support from the public that sees them as devoid of integrity, common sense and strategic vision.
I would proffer the observation one of her ‘values’ demonstrated by her decision not to incinerate c4k of characterised EU regs when in the position to do so and when encouraged to do so by ERG. This ‘value’ being – I may talk tosh but I’m not a complete fool when it comes to actually following through, so have faith.
Of course this is where the Blob/Deep state/blame Civil Servants twaddle comes in ever so handy when you need a bit of revisionism to win votes.
Australia supports the REFORM Party, and dearly wishes we had one here. However, Kemi is a fiercely bright, good human. I wish her well.