March 12, 2024 - 10:00am
It might be comforting for those on the Left of the Conservative Party to believe that losing Lee Anderson to Reform UK is somehow a good thing in the long term, but as John Maynard Keynes put it, “in the long run we are all dead.”
The immediate reality for the Tories is abysmal, and surely now terminal for their hold on power. Even before Anderson’s defection, Rishi Sunak’s party had slumped to 20% of the vote — its lowest ever share recorded by Ipsos. The last time the Conservatives came close to this nadir was in December 1994, the month after Jimmy Goldsmith launched his short-lived but influential Referendum Party, exploiting the same kind of vitriol and division which now grips the Tory Party. And we all know how John Major’s time as prime minister ended.
For those convinced that we’re in store for another 1997, it is a strange coincidence that the Referendum Party — like Reform today — secured a Tory defection in the run-up to polling day, when the Eurosceptic backbench MP George Gardiner jumped ship after being deselected by his local party for calling the Prime Minister a ventriloquist’s dummy. Gentler times, I guess.
In Major’s memoirs, though, he was far from gentle in his account of this defection, dismissing Gardiner as “a viper slithering around in the parliamentary pit” who would have carried on slithering during the election. “It was an embarrassment to have him stand against us, but a relief to know he would no longer be undermining us from within,” Major wrote. There are certainly Tories today who take a similar line on Anderson: better off rid.
Yet, Anderson’s defection — like Gardiner’s almost 30 years ago — is not just a presentational problem for Sunak, but revealing of a deeper structural crisis that cannot be wished away with comforting fantasies of long-term renewal. After 1997, it would be another 13 years before the Tories returned to government, and another 22 before they returned to the kind of vote share recorded by Major in 1992.
What’s more, when they did return to government it was on a far more eurosceptic platform than the one Major was determined to hold onto in 1997, when he angered his backbench critics by refusing to rule out joining the euro in the next parliament. In 1992, Major was trying to hold his party together with the Referendum Party only on 2.5% of the vote. Today, Reform is polling anywhere between 8-13%.
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SubscribeThe Tories are in a more difficult position now than in the past because so much of their voter base are state dependent retirees. Economically, they cannot please the petty bourgeoisie whilst satisfying the massive tax needs of their traditional core.
They can only do so by appealing to what I’ll politely term the base instincts of that voter coalition but the more they do that the more likely they are to turn off another pillar of their coalition: good chaps and sensible women.
They have to make a choice. Either be the party of business, liberty, independence, individualism and work (which would involve trying to appeal to urban and relatively young people) or continue in the Johnsonian vein as a nationalist socialist party.
So why did New Labour change the way that the cost of living is calculated (to exclude housing costs) and then pump the best part of £50 billion into the housing market to appease exactly the same people – and all at the expense of their traditional voting base? If you think New New Labour will be any different I have a bridge to sell you.
I won’t vote for a leader who doesn’t know what a woman is. Even both my sons know what a woman is.
He’s no loss. They’re likely to lose anyway and perhaps a fundamental realignment needed on the Right. The Reform ‘Blowhards’ will implode moment their broader Policy thinking put under scrutiny. Massive list of spending commitments and nothing of substance on how to pay for it. Tragic if it wasn’t comical too. These clowns haven’t the faintest idea what’s gone wrong with British capitalism and spend too much time foaming at the mouth to give it any proper thoughtful reflection.
30p Lee’s flip-flopping also just shows he’s all about the money. He knows carving out a certain persona keeps the GB News rewards flowing. Total Grifter.
The laughable thing is when likes of 30p and Braverman somehow make out they haven’t been in charge when net migration the highest ever and goodness knows how much illegal immigration we aren’t aware of. Neither resigned over that did they. Ever heard either mention proper ID cards as solution to the latter? No, because they aren’t about solutions. They are about a political careers built on dog whistling.
Yep. Same reason why Donald Trump tanked the Democrats’ border proposal. Their careers depend on these issues persisting. They don’t want solutions, they just want leverage.
Of course, they know better than anyone that they are actually powerless to do anything about these issues. Government gave all power to finance and the free market a few decades ago.
Yes it’s the same dog-whistle political tactic, but would slightly disagree on what we can do. For one I think we could move on National ID cards. Other countries do it.
I’m sure everything you say about lee Anderson is true – but at least he has a basic grasp of English grammar and syntax.
The current position of the Conservative Party in the polls can largely be attributed to a perceived disconnect between the party’s actions and the expectations of the electorate that brought them into power in 2019. Rishi Sunak’s leadership shows a lack of charisma and a series of unfulfilled pledges contributing to a sense of disenchantment among voters. Disillusionment with political promises are not exclusive to one side of the political spectrum, but rather, are observed across the board. The Tories only hope is a certain someone called Boris….imagine this is a poison chalice to most Tory MP’s who would prefer a labour victory.
Rishi says he can solve illegal immigration but will not come out of ECHR. You cannot stop illegal immigration and not come out of the ECHR. Reform will be the only party with the guts to come out of ECHR to end illegal immigration for good.
Anderson didn’t defect or “jump ship” did he? He was kicked out of the Tory party so became an Independent. He then has every right to find a party that better aligns with his beliefs.
I don’t believe he’s unprincipled at all, he’s actually saying/doing what his constituents are directing him to do- pity more MPs aren’t in that mould.
No reason to call a by-election given the cost of that and that a general election is fairly imminent but Id have a wager on him winning the Ashfield seat nest time there’s a vote there.
How can Reform ‘align with his beliefs’ if he previously criticised them and Farage?
We’ll see what his constituents make of it, I suspect it won’t be what he has in mind.
Critisism doesn’t mean you don’t repect them. We should all be able to take well meaning critisism and admit it when we are wrong. I think he will be a great help to the Reform party. Maybe an ex miner to give the red wall what Johnson did not manage to give them.
He is a honest man and there are a few left in the tory party that I hope get back in or defect to Reform. But there is something dreadfully wrong in the present cabinet which gets rid of the best MP’s such as Suella Braverman doing her best to stop illegal immigration but disowned by the cabinet. I would love to see her join Reform who are more in line with her honest views. Another one they kicked out was Andrew Bridgen who wanted an investigation made into vaccine damage. I think they have lost their courage to do the right thing. Either that or they don’t know what the right thing is.
I was under the impression that the whole point of Sunak was that he wasn’t offering Johnsonism at all. I don’t think anyone could offer Johnsonism except The Boris himself really.
But anyway. Long story short, I think the word “annihilation” is going to be an understatement when it comes to the Tory party’s results at the next election.
Very sad if it means that we end up with Labour who appear to back Islam.
Appointing Lee Anderson as vice chairman was about as silly as taking the whip off him. Who is advising Sunak?
Wasn’t it Disraeli who said “An MP’s job is to represent his constituents in Whitehall and not Whitehall in his constituency”? Lee Anderson is doing just that and good luck to him.
Anderson is a chancer and a con man.
wasn’t he just saying how it should be mandatory for defecting MPs to face a recall petition and possible by-election? He’s changed his tune on that just like he has changed his tune on everything else. He lies constantly.
And this garbage about “wanting his country back”? He’s not even trying to hide the racism anymore…