As Labour leadership hopeful Andy Burnham launches his official campaign, one move that has turned heads is his apparent backing of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration and asylum reforms. Is this a sign that the balance of power for any Labour government is shifting toward a more socially conservative “Blue Labour” ideology?

The move is likely to disappoint those who were hopeful that a potential Burnham leadership would result in a softening of Mahmood’s reforms. The Greater Manchester Mayor said this week that he “supports the broad thrust” of the Home Secretary’s efforts to limit legal migration and combat illegal arrivals, primarily in the shape of the ongoing small-boats crisis. It has also been reported that Burnham will not seek to liberalise the current immigration and asylum policy. This includes a broad policy sweep, such as lengthening the time before migrants can apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) and shifting the UK’s refugee policy from a model of permanent resettlement to temporary sanctuary.

There is currently a fierce battle over the soul of the Labour Party, especially over immigration. Earlier in the year, more than 100 Labour MPs, peers and trade union leaders demanded that Mahmood pause her reforms. Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner warned that proposals to make it harder for migrants already in the UK to settle permanently were “un-British” and a “breach of trust”. It has also been suggested that Labour’s loss in February’s Gorton and Denton by-election was partly due to the Government’s toughened stance on migration. Burnham’s endorsement of Mahmood’s immigration and asylum agenda, however, should not come as a surprise. Reform UK soundly defeated Labour in the wards of Makerfield in the recent local elections. Looking more widely at the country at large, seven in 10 Britons believe that immigration has been too high over the last decade.

With this week’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures showing a further drop in net migration to 171,000 for the year ending December 2025, immigration is an area where Labour can argue it is making progress. In response to the data, Burnham said net migration “needs to fall further”. With a buoyant Reform previously referring to him as “Open-Borders Andy”, he has little choice but to embrace Blue Labour conservatism on matters of immigration, integration, and identity. Failing to lean into this realignment could be devastating for him and for the future of a Labour Party which finds itself in an existential crisis.

To shore up Labour’s electoral position in seats like Makerfield — working-class Brexit territory — Burnham must convince the party’s traditional core vote that he will lead as a cultural conservative who supports economic growth through modern reindustrialisation. But convincing them will not be enough: he must recognise the necessity of such policies and press ahead with their implementation if he finds himself in No. 10. Otherwise, Labour will continue to be exposed to the Reform surge in its traditional provincial heartlands.

---

Dr Rakib Ehsan is a researcher specialising in British ethnic minority socio-political attitudes, with a particular focus on the effects of social integration and intergroup relations.

 

rakibehsan

---