November 4, 2021 - 11:25am
On Wednesday the Fed announced that it would pull back on its $120bn bond buying programme. This is a clearly a response to market sentiment, which is increasingly unconvinced by the narrative that the current inflation being experienced across the world is transitory. Bond markets are pricing in faster Fed interest rate hikes by the day and the Fed, as is its wont, is signalling compliance with its tapering programme.
But what if everyone has it wrong — or, at least, partially wrong? A normal, or cyclical, inflation occurs when the economy is running too hot. But there is every chance that current inflation is not a normal cyclical event. Rather it is caused by supply chain malfunctions that are, according to the ISM manufacturing report on supplier deliveries, the worst we have seen since the mid-1970s. These supply chain issues are, in turn, a result of the enormous interventions we have made in our economies in the name of public health these last two years.
The lockdowns effectively interrupted the smooth flow of both the world and national economies. We failed to notice for a while because accumulated inventories kept the whole thing ticking over while we sat in our pyjamas on Zoom calls pretending that this was all perfectly normal. But now these interruptions are starting to bite — and the result is inflation.
What is more, in some countries at least, these problems are likely to get worse – perhaps far worse. This is because of the punitive vaccine mandates that are being brought into effect, both formally and informally. Until recently policymakers have — much to my amazement — been sanguine about the impact these would have on the economy. Just last week an economist friend in DC told me that he expected the mandates to impact no more than 1% of the labour force.
Yet when the New York mandate came online last Friday, almost 1 in 10 public sector workers failed to meet the criteria. Now basic services in New York City are shutting down. Noncompliance is likely to be higher in the private sector than in the Left-leaning public sector too and delivery companies are already considering turning down government contracts to avoid the mandate.
It is far from clear that a Fed rate hike can cure these ills. Conceivably it could stifle demand and give manufacturers and distributors breathing room to fix supply chains. But this seems like a long shot, and there is literally no chance that a rate hike can get workers who have refused vaccines back to work. If this turns out to be the case, then central banks risk stagflation on steroids. Recessions today tend to be worse than they were in the 1970s, and if inflation keeps spiralling, we could be facing down a hot mix of a 1970s style stagflation coupled with a 2008-09 recessionary event. Buckle up.
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SubscribeThe problem is so many people have taken the vaccine under duress already! My ( young adult) children have taken it because it makes life easier and they can go out and travel etc. My husband took it for work travel too. If there was lesser uptake, the message would be that people are making a stand for choice. There has been 85% uptake in the UK.
Now they are turning on young children, which is beyond criminal.
And for what purpose? Just to say “the vaccine program was successful? What are they STILL so worried about? They are bringing incredibly bad publicity on to themselves. The voters will show their anger.
Maybe mandates can be enforced in the first world but not in the entire world! You cannot eliminate all risk!
The voters won’t show their anger because they have no-one serious to vote for – sadly.
If there are no suitable candidates, I will not vote.
Also just read that a pill has been approved now for “at risk” Covid cases. Surely that would take the pressure off & end the need for mad vaccine mandates!
Trump, 2024
This is NOTHING TO DO WITH HEALTH.
As a full blown conspiracy loon Agenda 2030 (UN) seems pretty suspect, a smoking gun really, and a look at the search engine (DDG):
“This master plan for technocratic and totalitarian control is found in the UN’s Agenda 21 and the newer and even more draconian Agenda 2030. The aspects of life and society they seek to hijack are euphemistically outlined as “Sustainable Development Goals.”
Originally, those pushing for Agendas 21/2030 used climate change as the impetus for advancing those plans. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Deep State found another excuse for executing their master plan for humanity.
The WEF’s “Great Reset” and the UN’s “Build Back Better” plan go hand-in hand with Agendas 21 and 2030.”
I refuse to own a cell phone (never have, never will, even soon when one will be required to carry one as your personal Internal passport, wallet, and tracker/monitor) I refuse the vax, refuse the mask, and believe in General John Stark’s “Live Free Or Die”
Anyone remember this?
This was late last year, i.e. before the world went mad.
The vaccines appear to have become a vessel through which governments can enforce their will on the people. It’s always easier to do when it’s about ‘saving lives’. Is the world starting to resemble one big concentration camp?
Vaccinations make free – writing on the Düsseldorfer Rheinturm.
And we will deserve it
Powell said the tapering begins in December, 10 Billion Bonds and 5 billion Mortgage Backed Securities, out of a total of $120 Billion a month.
So not till June 2022 till done, and interest rates cannot be raised till that QE is finished.
And the supply breakdown is not why inflation is happening, the inflation os from Monetary and Fiscal stimulus to the tune of $30 Trillion globally. The covid response was to destroy the global economy, not to save lives. And it is working very well, our economy is a Dead Man Walking, and just does not know it yet.
I recommend George Gammon’s white board presentation on a Fed Insider saying raising interest may just add to inflation – so messed up the global finance is….and every way the Fed turns it will just make it all worse, as will doing nothing – FUBAR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JO02vK5t_hM
P.S. If you have a bit of trouble fallowing the VITAL youtube linked above it means you do not understand economics today, (or ever, as the way money works is nothing like you understand, and your entire life wellbeing is on understanding economics, or not)
Thus if you are economically illiterate you need to quit that and get the basics. I recommend George Gammon’s ‘White Board’ presentations like the one linked above. Not understanding economics is like knowing Nothing of the world outside your community. You just have no idea of the world at all. He will take you through all the basics. Just click on a video and if it is a white board, watch it. They are as fun as some Netflix cra*, but 1000X more useful.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpvyOqtEc86X8w8_Se0t4-w
then click on the VIDEOS tab at the top for them to appear in sequence, and get learning. The entire paradigm of money is changing so fast it is absolute opaque unless you get the basics – CBDC are coming, and a Brave New World, and one which likely will mean poverty, learn the system.
I am studying for my Builder’s Contractor’s License, as a Mid 60s tradesman I finally decided to move up to contracting, and the books arrived – $900 worth, about 30 pounds of them, tight printing, an astounding amount to tackle. (I also bought an on-line course)
We need to keep learning, studying something about life, and economics is actually fun (contracting license is NOT!) to learn – it is so absolutely how insane how money actually works – NOTHING like one would think – yet is the ultimate power in the world, and over your life.
yup, a lot to get one’s head around – but more to the point where does one put one’s savings that will keep up with inflation and maybe make a couple of safe percent. My best guess is cheap housing in an area with steady demand ie brisbane in the Aussie scenario. What do you suggest amongst all these glum scenarios ….
Bitcoin. Whether or not you decide to put money into it, I highly recommend spending the time to really understand it – which almost no-one has done despite it’s already historically unprecedented rise and impact. It will help no end with your general understanding of economics if nothing else.
tyanks for that – I have a friend into it -maybe i should listen instead of letting my eyes glaze over…..
Wouldn’t be so bad if the vaccines really ended the pandemic, but many are still getting ill. Keeping people out of the labor force means fewer goods so shortages increase prices. Troubled times ahead, worldwide.
Cue anti vaxxer comments….