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December 17, 2024 - 2:30pm
“Reshaped” seems to be the current word of choice for describing the Middle East. This may be a slight overstatement, as much of the region is as it was a year ago. But it is undoubtedly true that with Hamas all but decimated, Hezbollah irreparably crippled, and Bashar al-Assad gone, the region has witnessed a level of change not seen since the Arab Spring.
The two main beneficiaries of this Great Reshaping are Israel and Turkey. Israel has proved its superior military and intelligence capabilities, occupying a small buffer zone in Syria and establishing military dominance in Gaza. What’s more, it has intelligence-enabled influence and freedom to operate in both Lebanon and much of Syria — not bad for a country of fewer than 10 million people.
Turkey, meanwhile, has established Syria as its de-facto sphere of influence. The groups which it supported during the Syrian civil war swept through to Damascus earlier this month and now control most of the country. This puts Ankara in a strong position to wrest the title of protector of Sunni Islam from Saudi Arabia. While the petrostate could not even suppress an Iran-funded uprising on its border in Yemen, Turkey has successfully helped Syria’s Sunni majority overthrow Iran’s Shi’ite-dominated client state.
Western influence in the region will now need to be mediated much more closely through these two powers. The US will want to maintain counter-terrorism operations and surveillance in the Middle East, and above all contain a weakened Iran. However, US military resources necessary for these projects may soon be needed more urgently in the Indo-Pacific. There are already signs of partial American withdrawal: earlier this year, the Biden administration announced a deal with the Iraqi government to wind down its military presence in the country. Donald Trump has also signalled his intention to withdraw the remaining 900 US troops from northeastern Syria.
With a reduced footprint in the region, the containment of Iran may need to be largely outsourced to Israel. But if it is taking all of the risks for this objective, Israel may want more than just military aid in return. Acquiescence to annexation of the West Bank comes to mind. Aluf Benn, editor of the Left-wing Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote in Foreign Affairs in October that the Netanyahu “coalition’s stated goal is to create a Jewish state from the river to the sea, extending limited if necessary but preferably no political rights to non-Jewish subjects, even those who hold Israeli citizenship”.
Europe also desperately needs gas to replace Russian imports. A natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey, running through Syria, and which was reportedly blocked by Assad in 2009 at the request of Russia, could be back on the table under the new regime. This would give European markets access to Qatari gas. Europe will also want Turkey to double down on its commitments to Nato in the context of uncertain US security guarantees, while America will need Turkish cooperation to keep a lid on resurgent jihadism in the region.
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SubscribeThe “Palestinians” have had lots of opportunities to have a state, all of which they turned down. They don’t want a “two-state solution”, but a one-state solution, so what is Israel supposed to do with that? You are making them out to be victims. Sure, victims of Hamas.
The Palestinians never existed as a nation, which cannot be said about the Kurds.
I’ll definitely ‘spare a thought’ for the Kurds. The Palestinians? Er…
I don’t care what the left wing Aluf Benn says. I don’t care what the right wing extremists in Netanyahu’s coalition may have said. Israel is not going to create Israeli citizens without voting rights.
Netanyahu wouldn’t be left off hook for his ‘river to sea’ project by the 2 state solution moderate zionist majority in the diaspora if the pro-palestinian campaign wasn’t also for ‘river to sea’ supremacy at all costs. I’d spare a thought for stateless palestinians if the whole aim of their campaign wasn’t making jews who live there stateless.
“River to the sea”
So the Israelis are now calling for genocide and ethnic cleansing! Or does that only apply to.ehen the supporters of the Palestinians chant it?
There are, those of a like, on both sides. But on one side it’s the whole government. And of course it was one side that started the war with the main goal of martyring their civilian population.