December 17, 2024 - 2:30pm
“Reshaped” seems to be the current word of choice for describing the Middle East. This may be a slight overstatement, as much of the region is as it was a year ago. But it is undoubtedly true that with Hamas all but decimated, Hezbollah irreparably crippled, and Bashar al-Assad gone, the region has witnessed a level of change not seen since the Arab Spring.
The two main beneficiaries of this Great Reshaping are Israel and Turkey. Israel has proved its superior military and intelligence capabilities, occupying a small buffer zone in Syria and establishing military dominance in Gaza. What’s more, it has intelligence-enabled influence and freedom to operate in both Lebanon and much of Syria — not bad for a country of fewer than 10 million people.
Turkey, meanwhile, has established Syria as its de-facto sphere of influence. The groups which it supported during the Syrian civil war swept through to Damascus earlier this month and now control most of the country. This puts Ankara in a strong position to wrest the title of protector of Sunni Islam from Saudi Arabia. While the petrostate could not even suppress an Iran-funded uprising on its border in Yemen, Turkey has successfully helped Syria’s Sunni majority overthrow Iran’s Shi’ite-dominated client state.
Western influence in the region will now need to be mediated much more closely through these two powers. The US will want to maintain counter-terrorism operations and surveillance in the Middle East, and above all contain a weakened Iran. However, US military resources necessary for these projects may soon be needed more urgently in the Indo-Pacific. There are already signs of partial American withdrawal: earlier this year, the Biden administration announced a deal with the Iraqi government to wind down its military presence in the country. Donald Trump has also signalled his intention to withdraw the remaining 900 US troops from northeastern Syria.
With a reduced footprint in the region, the containment of Iran may need to be largely outsourced to Israel. But if it is taking all of the risks for this objective, Israel may want more than just military aid in return. Acquiescence to annexation of the West Bank comes to mind. Aluf Benn, editor of the Left-wing Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote in Foreign Affairs in October that the Netanyahu “coalition’s stated goal is to create a Jewish state from the river to the sea, extending limited if necessary but preferably no political rights to non-Jewish subjects, even those who hold Israeli citizenship”.
Europe also desperately needs gas to replace Russian imports. A natural gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey, running through Syria, and which was reportedly blocked by Assad in 2009 at the request of Russia, could be back on the table under the new regime. This would give European markets access to Qatari gas. Europe will also want Turkey to double down on its commitments to Nato in the context of uncertain US security guarantees, while America will need Turkish cooperation to keep a lid on resurgent jihadism in the region.
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SubscribeThe Palestinians never existed as a nation, which cannot be said about the Kurds.
I don’t care what the left wing Aluf Benn says. I don’t care what the right wing extremists in Netanyahu’s coalition may have said. Israel is not going to create Israeli citizens without voting rights.
Fyi, the number of Qatari citizens is about 1/10 residents; the rest have residency rights, and limited political rights, but cannot vote. It’s a monarchy, in any case …
Yes, but they’re not citizens in any sense of the word.
The “Palestinians” have had lots of opportunities to have a state, all of which they turned down. They don’t want a “two-state solution”, but a one-state solution, so what is Israel supposed to do with that? You are making them out to be victims. Sure, victims of Hamas.
I’ll definitely ‘spare a thought’ for the Kurds. The Palestinians? Er…
Netanyahu wouldn’t be left off hook for his ‘river to sea’ project by the 2 state solution moderate zionist majority in the diaspora if the pro-palestinian campaign wasn’t also for ‘river to sea’ supremacy at all costs. I’d spare a thought for stateless palestinians if the whole aim of their campaign wasn’t making jews who live there stateless.
“River to the sea”
So the Israelis are now calling for genocide and ethnic cleansing! Or does that only apply to.ehen the supporters of the Palestinians chant it?
There are, those of a like, on both sides. But on one side it’s the whole government. And of course it was one side that started the war with the main goal of martyring their civilian population.
Oh, Billy Bob. There are two million Muslim Arabs in Israel, along with many Bedouins, Christians, Druze, etc. They have full and equal political rights with their Jewish neighbors and fellow citizens. Whereas, the ancient Christian populations of nearly every Muslim country has fallen dramatically to almost nothing; they flee due to persecution and fear.
To day nothing of the ancient Jewish populations of Muslim countries…
Tucker Carlson just had Jeffrey Sachs again on his show. So refreshing when a Jewish person says the obvious – Israel and its Jewish Supremacist activists control US foreign policy.
Both Kurds and Palestinians could have established their own states long ago had they chosen peaceful negotiations over violence. After facing years of terrorist attacks originating from these groups, Israel and Turkey are within their rights to destroy their chances of statehood.
Really not sure that’s the case for the Kurds. Think you’re going to need to provide some evidence for that claim. Like actual dates and proposed boundaries when this was a realistic possibility. Can you do that ?
There never were Kurd or Palestinian states.
The Kurds at least are a distinct culture with a language. They deserve security and autonomy, which perhaps can still be achieved in N Iraq. The Palestinians? No distinctive anything
If they continue their futile War against Israel, theyvwill be back to Syria and Jordan where most came from
The Muslim leader from the Crusades era, best known and respected in the West, who uprooted the Crusader Kingdom of Jerusalem, was the Kurd, Yusuf ibn-Ayub Salah-a-din (aka Saladin).
Ironically, both Israel and Turkey may look and act strong, but their strength is paper-thin. Israel’s economy and international standing are shot, its demography is weakening, between the ultraorthodox (but military service-allergic) population growing and young professionals decamping. Israel depends wholly on its sugar-daddy, the US, and its spell over US politics. Once that spell is broken, Israel is sunk.
Turkey similarly is, economically speaking, a dead man walking. Erdogan may be a master politician, like his Israeli counterpart, but Erdogan’s economic nous is not commensurate. He is currently surviving by playing all sides against the middle. The risk is that too many of his realpolitik partners will simultaneously tire of his games.
Your “analysis” is neither logical, factual, nor analytical, my friend.
You do know that Israel has one of the most advanced technology clusters in the world, don’t you ? That’s something you can’t simply fake or build by subsidies alone.
By and large, Turkey presents the acceptable face of Islamic democracy.
They should get largely what they want, expelling the muhajadeen in the process, while Israel keeps an eye on their treatment of the Kurds.
The words “Turkey” and “democracy” don’t belong in the same sentence, at least not until Turkey sets free the thousands of political prisoners and journalists still rotting in Turkish jails
I favour a “no-state solution” to the Israel-Arab Palestinian conflict. For most of the last three millennia, the middle-east has been governed as small city-states under the loose umbrella of one empire or another. This grass-roots model much better suits the plethora of interleaved ethnicities, than the European nation-state model prevailing since the 17th Century.
If Israel can pair back its own state functions to security and justice alone, then she would be a suitable “imperial overseer” in the new old-model of governance.
The model provides civil rights for all, while there would be insufficient state goodies to tempt rent-seekers to use ethnic domination as a cover for their politicking predation.
“Aluf Benn, editor of the Left-wing Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote in Foreign Affairs in October that the Netanyahu “coalition’s stated goal is to create a Jewish state from the river to the sea, extending limited if necessary but preferably no political rights to non-Jewish subjects, even those who hold Israeli citizenship”.”
Utter nonsense, which I suppose may nonetheless serve to warn off anyone who might have naively imagined that Haaretz is a publication worth paying any attention to. Bracket with the NYT, WaPo, the BBC and The Guardian.