Yesterday morning, the Guardian published an article by Sadiq Khan detailing new Metropolitan Police data that suggested London was becoming an safer city.

In the piece, the London Mayor argued this data is evidence that the capital is not a “lawless” city, as it is often portrayed on social media or in the press. Khan wrote that “nothing could be further from the truth” and that his approach to policing is “yielding real results”. His article was matched by a press release from the Mayor of London’s office, which claimed that the capital is becoming “safer” and that the police response is being strengthened in areas that “impact communities most”.

But dig deeper into the data and a more complicated picture emerges. The same Metropolitan Police figures cited by Khan show that, while some categories of crime have fallen — including vehicle offences and personal robbery — others remain stubbornly high or have increased. The headline figures also require context: a fall in certain offences does not necessarily capture Londoners’ wider concerns about crime, disorder and antisocial behaviour. So what do the numbers really tell us about Khan’s London?

One of the key claims made by the Khan in his piece is that there were 35,000 “neighbourhood crimes” in the past 12 months compared to the previous year. This category includes burglaries, thefts, robberies and vehicle crime offences. The Mayor of London’s office press release echoed this statement, including a breakdown of where this reduction had come from. But take, for example, the “thefts from person” offence, which makes up the bulk of the reason for the drop in neighbourhood crimes. While there may have been 23,311 fewer offences in the past year compared to the previous year, there were still far more of these offences than in July 2022- June 2023 (see graph below, which shows the monthly reported thefts from person offences). In this period, there were 64,011 thefts from person reported, whereas in the past year there were 75,000.

Theft offences may have declined in the last year, but they are still higher than four years ago

Monthly offences of “theft from the person” recorded by Metropolitan Police

There are also other areas where crime is rising. In his piece, Khan mentioned thefts, but the data below shows that one area of theft-related crime which is climbing dramatically is shoplifting. In the period between July 2022 and June 2023, there were 46,704 shoplifting offences, whereas in the past year there were 93,444 offences.

Shoplifting offences have risen substantially over the past four years

Monthly offences of “shoplifting” recorded by Metropolitan Police

Another area highlighted in the Mayor’s piece is the success of his Violence Reduction Unit (VRU). He suggests that the VRU, which was set up to prevent young people from getting involved in crime, has correlated with hospital admissions of young people after knife crime assaults falling by almost 50%. While this is true, the latest data shows an increase in “violence against the person” assaults, with 244,152 committed in July 2022-June 2023, compared to 254,842 in the past year.

Finally, in the Mayor of London’s press release, it is mentioned that personal robberies have decreased by 9% in the past year, with 8,737 fewer offences having taken place. This is correct, but the release neglects to mention the dramatic increase in robberies of businesses that have taken place in the past year (see graph below which shows monthly robbery of business offences). In June 2022-July 2023, there were 3,124 offences committed in this period, but in the past year this has risen substantially to 9,216. This is an almost 200% increase, which was not mentioned in the article by Khan.

Robberies of businesses are steadily rising in London

Monthly offences of “robbery of business property” recorded by Metropolitan Police

This is only a snapshot of the data included in the Met’s release; a fuller picture can be found in the force’s monthly crime dashboard. Khan presents a London that is becoming safer, dismissing what he describes as a “dystopian and dangerous narrative peddled online”. Yet the latest Metropolitan Police figures suggest a more nuanced reality: while some categories of crime are falling, others are worsening significantly, raising questions about whether the broader picture is as reassuring as the Mayor suggests.