September 20, 2024 - 10:00am

The European Union is a limited entity. Much to the chagrin of dedicated bureaucrats in Brussels, the EU is less like a federal state and more like a federation of states. Its institutions must constantly balance the interests of individual member states with the often more ambitious goals of the European Commission. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than on the issue of migration. Officially, the EU is sticking to its migration pact, but a closer look reveals at the same time cracks in the current agreement and a slow shift towards a new reality.

This week, the Netherlands — at the insistence of anti-immigration Geert Wilders, who leads the largest party in the country’s coalition — made a point of requesting an opt-out agreement from the EU’s migration rules if and when the bloc next renegotiates its treaties. Although there is no renegotiation happening any time soon, it is indicative of the new fault lines that re-elected EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will have to deal with in her second term.

During her first term, von der Leyen was often in conflict with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who steadfastly refused to adhere to EU asylum procedures — and the antipathy is unlikely to fade. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has ordered Hungary to pay an upfront €200 million and a daily fine of €1 million until Budapest follows EU regulations. The ECJ’s main claims are that Hungary has been depriving migrants of their rights to apply for asylum and has “restricted access to international protection, unlawfully detained asylum applicants, and failed to observe their right to stay while their applications were processed”.

Despite the EU’s haughtiness towards what it perceives as anti-immigration nationalist sentiment, it appears that both the European Commission and individual member states are moving closer to the Hungarian position. Ursula von der Leyen just nominated former Austrian finance minister Magnus Brunner as Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration. This is remarkable because Austria has taken a similarly hardline approach on migration to Hungary, and Vienna was also found guilty of violating EU rules with extensive border checks.

Replicating Hungary and Austria’s tough stance on immigration is Denmark — often considered a Left-of-centre, social-democratic haven. Its relatively strict policies may be a reason why — unlike almost every other European country — it has not experienced a significant populist backlash. Elsewhere, just this week British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni for tips on how to stop the Channel small boat crossings. In the last year, Meloni’s government has reduced small boat arrivals by 60%.

As for the Dutch request to get an exemption from the bloc’s migration policies, the government has cited concerns that the country is currently not in a position to accommodate any more asylum seekers without causing undue burdens on the housing supply and social services. Seeing this as a political opportunity, Hungary has announced its intentions to make a similar application. One wonders how many exemptions it will take for the EU to abandon its migration pact, but there is little doubt that should the Dutch request be granted, others will follow.

Even Germany, which is partly responsible for the bloc’s current situation thanks to former chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-borders policy, may seek an exemption. There are ever more reports of communities being overwhelmed by the inflow of migrants, and Berlin is already itching closer to its own legal conflicts with fellow EU members after it reintroduced border controls with neighbouring states — all nine of which are members of the free-travel Schengen Zone.

We are witnessing the birth of a new EU migration system, one that is likely to be a patchwork of exemptions, special rules, and border controls. After the bloc’s failed migration policy of the last 20 years, such a development is hardly surprising.


Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

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