In a stunning local council by-election result — and a sign of things to come — Noor Jahan Begum of the Ilford Independents gained the ward of Mayfield from the Labour Party in the London borough of Redbridge. While Begum won 42.5% of the vote, Labour’s share dropped by 45 percentage points in an electoral ward it had held since 2010.

The disintegration of Labour’s vote in the Mayfield local by-election is yet more indication of the governing party’s vulnerability in Muslim-heavy areas (with more than half of residents in the Redbridge ward being Muslim, according to the 2021 Census). Like other independent Muslim candidates in recent times, the victorious Begum positioned the Palestinian cause as a key pillar of her campaign, calling for “justice” for Palestine (along with Ukraine). Her victory is part of a broader trend in which Muslim voters are turning away from Labour. In the May 2024 local elections, which preceded Labour’s landslide general election last July, Labour suffered a “Muslim exodus” in post-industrial Lancastrian towns such as Blackburn and Bolton. This by-election confirms that British Muslim support for the party is still draining away.

But as public opinion expert Luke Tryl has observed, while the split between Labour and a significant proportion of Muslim voters has been triggered by events in the Middle East, there is a deeper feeling that their long-standing support has been taken for granted in these neglected and overlooked communities. Indeed, there are prevailing frustrations of a decidedly local nature, such as a lack of investment, limited opportunities for growth, and neighbourhood crime. The former Redbridge council leader and ex-councillor for Mayfield, Jas Athwal, who is now the Labour MP for Ilford South, recently apologised after it was revealed that properties he rented out had problems with black mould and ant infestations. It is no surprise that Begum, the new councillor for the ward, also focused on “sustainable housing” and took aim at Athwal’s record as a landlord.

In addition, it has become more apparent that Labour’s relatively socially liberal views are fundamentally at odds with conventional Islamic morality — especially when it comes to the sanctity of life (including assisted dying). As leader of the opposition, Keir Starmer’s bizarre pinpointing of Bangladeshis over illegal migration certainly wouldn’t have helped his party’s electoral standing in London’s eastern boroughs such as Redbridge. Gaza may well have been the straw that broke the camel’s back, but there has been a steady fraying of relations between Labour and British Muslim voters for some time.

Labour is likely to be spared its blushes in the local elections this May because they are taking place in predominantly Tory-controlled rural areas where the party tends not to perform well anyway. However, it has a major fight on its hands in the 2026 local elections, where contests are scheduled to be held in cities such as Birmingham and Bradford, along with the likes of Blackburn with Darwen and Rochdale.

Looking further into the future, several Labour heavyweights are under threat in their constituencies. This includes Health Secretary Wes Streeting, with the MP for Ilford North nearly losing his seat to independent challenger Leanne Mohamad. Others include Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood (Birmingham Ladywood) and the Minister for Homelessness Rushanara Ali (Bethnal Green and Stepney in Tower Hamlets), who was the first British Bangladeshi elected to Parliament.

The local by-election result in the Redbridge area of Mayfield, underscores the reality that traditionally Labour-held areas with high Muslim populations and multiple forms of socio-economic disadvantage are very much in play. While the Starmer government has created a new “Islamophobia” council which has been instructed to develop a definition of anti-Muslim hatred, such piecemeal initiatives will achieve little in terms of rebuilding ties with British Muslims — especially those who have grown disillusioned with the lack of good local governance in their Labour-controlled areas.

Whether it is inner-city Birmingham or post-industrial northern towns such as Blackburn, independent candidates who blend pro-Palestine activism with local bread-and-butter concerns over a lack of economic opportunities, anti-social behaviour, and underperforming public services, will find much electoral joy at Labour’s expense.

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Dr Rakib Ehsan is a researcher specialising in British ethnic minority socio-political attitudes, with a particular focus on the effects of social integration and intergroup relations.

 

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