According to the Mirror, Nigel Farage is set to return to frontline politics as leader of Reform UK. Of course, we’ve heard this all before. There were breathless reports promising the same in December, January, February, March and April. One might suspect that all he really wants is some attention.

And yet if he is serious about a comeback, now is his moment. That’s because the uncertainty that has clouded British politics in recent months is about to lift. Tory poll ratings have been bad enough for long enough to destroy Rishi Sunak’s authority. However, because we just don’t know whether his colleagues are willing to remove him, his leadership is both dead and alive at the same time. He’s the political equivalent of Schrödinger’s cat.

But as ballot boxes are opened on Thursday night and into Friday, this quantum state is set to collapse. Within days — and possibly hours — Conservative MPs will have to decide whether to stick with Sunak to the bitter end or take their chances on a new prime minister. Either outcome is good for Farage.

If Sunak stays, then Reform can campaign relentlessly on immigration. With every setback for the Rwanda policy, the party can rub it in. With every small boat that lands on our shores, Farage has a chance to be there on the beach, counting the new arrivals.

In June, we have the European parliamentary elections. Neither Sunak nor Starmer will be there in Strasbourg or Brussels, but Farage could be, welcoming the likely populist surge and inviting British voters to send a similar message.

If, on the other hand, Sunak goes, then there’s a Conservative leadership contest to interfere with. For instance, should MPs attempt to disenfranchise the party membership, expect Farage to shed crocodile tears for Tory democracy. He’ll then present himself as the spiritual leader of the Right and invite the grassroots to take revenge at the next election.

The purpose of cutting out the Tory members is to make it more likely that a moderate candidate emerges as leader — Penny Mordaunt, for instance. Except that the Farage factor may impact the calculations of the parliamentary party. MPs may judge that only a Right-winger can stem the loss of votes to Reform UK.

But that still wouldn’t stop Farage’s fun. Indeed, the closer that the Conservative Party gets to the Reform UK position, the more credibly he can offer them an electoral pact.

The approaching general election might not seem to bear much similarity to the last one, but the common thread is change. The Tories won in 2019 because they promised it to Red Wall voters — and they’re now set for a crushing defeat because they totally failed to deliver. There’s no way they’ll be trusted again. Unless, that is, they can present themselves in a radically different form.

A Tory-Faragist united front would scandalise respectable opinion, but that’s just the point: with so little time left before the general election, a deal with Farage is how the Tories reinvent themselves fast. It also blows up Labour’s entire strategy, which is all about running against the last three Prime Ministers — not a new deal.

Of course, this would be an outrageously risky proposition. But the Tories might just be desperate enough to take it.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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