Poland has spent months warning Nato allies about planned Russian provocations on its territory. What Moscow would hope to gain from aggressive actions against the alliance is unclear, but we may be about to find out. Early on Thursday morning, a large missile, reportedly from Russia, blew a 10-metre crater into a field in eastern Poland near the Ukraine border.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasised that while “everything indicates it was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile,” there is “no reason to believe that Poland was the target”. His defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, however, said “Nato must show its strength, resilience and unity” in response. A Nato spokesman said the alliance would “take all necessary measures to defend Nato territory”.

The events of Thursday morning may be the first salvo in this new, riskier phase of hostility. Putin can simply dismiss it as a freak occurrence, given that the missile found its way into Poland during a large-scale overnight barrage throughout Ukraine, including in regions bordering Poland. Whether the crash was genuinely unintended or a carefully calculated accident, launching massive missile attacks on the fringes of Nato territory is clearly asking for trouble.

There is a deeper importance here, though. Polish calls for unity highlight a Russian motive for such provocations: to undermine the mutual trust that binds Nato together. Putin will not want a wider war with Nato, but Russia does have an interest in normalising a fractious, unpredictable state of semi-conflict with the alliance.

The degree to which Nato lets such incursions slide may, after all, help define the extent to which Putin will escalate the war with Ukraine. As Ukrainian drone strikes bring carnage to Russian infrastructure, Moscow may seek its own ways to take the war behind enemy lines. Establishing a precedent of Nato non-response could facilitate further actions with clearer intent to undermine the alliance’s supply chains and transit routes that feed Ukraine’s war effort.

Putin may also be tempted to test Nato patience due to signs that the Trump administration is slowly rejecting the Ukraine scepticism that defined MAGA geopolitical thinking in 2024 and 2025. For Russia, the window of opportunity to exploit the perceived indifference of America to the fate of Ukraine and Europe may be closing.

Such considerations increase the danger of escalation in the short term, especially in light of the review of US forces stationed in Europe announced earlier this week by the US Department of War. By pushing Nato to move towards Europe taking responsibility for its defence, the six-month review hangs heavy over the alliance’s eastern flank. The resulting uncertainty and lack of leadership may hinder decision-making in response to Russian provocations.

Paradoxically, though, Russia has an even stronger interest in ensuring that its provocations outside Ukraine do not lead to expanding the war. The dramatic shifts in domestic policy which such an eventuality would necessitate, including full mobilisation and harsher demands on a beleaguered wartime economy, could not be justified politically as long as the Russian armed forces remain bogged down in the Donbas.

The result will likely be a period of increased volatility in which frightening — though limited and, from a Russian standpoint, deniable — incursions of the kind seen in Poland become more commonplace. It will, however, take a major shift on the ground in Ukraine before Russia considers taking the further step from provocation to crossing the Rubicon.