It is an auspicious moment for Muscovites who can chart their course with nothing but the stars and a paper map. Mobile internet and communications outages have hit both Moscow and St Petersburg in recent days, leaving millions without the ability to access basic services or pay bills. In place of the internet, a range of old-fashioned habits are making a comeback.

These disruptions have been a regular feature of Russian life since the invasion of Ukraine. The government claims this in the name of security, but the outages are actually used to prevent protests. They’re also geared towards reinforcing a message that the internet is a “privilege”, which can be withdrawn if used to criticise the government. The latest interruptions come after a crackdown on VPNs, as well as platforms such as YouTube, WhatsApp and Facebook.

But why such intensity now? Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov suggested the government needed to combat Ukrainian drone strikes. However, the reality may be a test of the system for halting or slowing the internet in the event of widespread opposition, a concern made more pressing by recent demonstrations in Iran. Such internet shutdowns were pivotal in suppressing protests against Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in 2020.

Whatever the immediate catalyst, the underlying cause is the paranoia of the Russian President. Mobile internet was nearly completely lost in central Moscow, only for some government-friendly websites to be made available a week later. Along similar lines, the Kremlin is trying to drive Russians off Telegram and onto Max — an unpopular and inefficient alternative under the authorities’ supervision.

None of these measures is likely to win the favour of Russians in the capital. The move jeopardises the government’s strategy of keeping the cosseted elites onside while the war in Ukraine rages. The illusion of maintaining a normal life in the metropolis is falling apart. And, perhaps more importantly, the economy is suffering because of these enforced outages. Businesses are estimated to have lost up to $63million during the first five days, while critical services such as pharmacies have shut. Even members of the Duma report being cut off.

The situation has not been improved by Peskov’s glib response that outages will continue “as long as additional measures are necessary”. The government has even gone as far as to push antiquated proposals for payphones with internet access. This could be a breaking point for Russians. Communications blockages have the power to drive frustrated citizens out onto the streets. Such is the public fondness for Telegram that activists in over 11 cities across Russia have attempted to stage protests in defence of the service.

Irritating civilians is one risk for the Russian leader; alienating his soldiers is a far more perilous one. With Telegram favoured on the frontline for its ease and speed, military bloggers and troops alike have been venting their fury. The prospect of the armed forces being forced to use slower options at the expense of land and lives is hardly popular. The app is also vital to fundraising efforts which equip soldiers beyond state provision. Even allies of the Kremlin have warned that such a shift will damage the war effort.

If the Kremlin is testing how to impose an internet shutdown in the event of mass resistance, it is revealing the playbook in advance. Interruptions give even passive citizens yet more reasons to criticise the government. But they also provide the impetus for them to adapt now and to circumvent any blockages brought in during actual demonstrations. For all the restrictions, VPN use has continued to proliferate. In trying to suppress dissent, Vladimir Putin may be making his citizens not only more resentful but also better equipped to resist him.

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Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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