March 13, 2025 - 10:00am
Neither side is backing down in the vicious row between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe, with the former now saying his ex-MP has no future in Reform UK. Much has been said about the potential impact of this split on the party, but what about Lowe himself?
Of all the men elected under the teal standard last July, the MP for Great Yarmouth is surely the one with the best chance of making something happen beyond Farage’s shadow, not least because he’s the only one who seems to actually put any work into being a parliamentarian. To date, Lowe has single-handedly accounted for 46% of Reform’s parliamentary activity since the election. His former comrades, on the other hand, are cast much more in the traditional mould of Ukip MEPs at the European Parliament: noisy, but not active.
Ben Habib, the former Brexit Party MEP and Reform deputy leader who was likewise driven out after a spat with Farage, has offered to help establish a new party with Lowe as leader. Yet even if this attracted the many Reform activists who admire him, the odds of such a splinter party breaking through are infinitesimal. It would much more likely end up looking like Robert Kilroy-Silk’s Veritas, an absurd vanity project.
That leaves two options. Lowe could simply content himself with being an independent MP. Given how hard he works, he would probably stand a decent chance of building the local profile and campaigning machine needed to hold his seat in 2029. Yet it would mean abandoning any opportunity to reshape national politics.
The other option, which he has left open, would be joining the Conservatives. Lowe’s arrival would definitely be a fillip to the embattled Tories, which is why senior figures such as Bob Blackman, the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, are quietly endorsing the idea. At a stroke it would — at least in the Westminster media bubble — arrest Reform’s momentum and put Kemi Badenoch on the offensive.
It would also be an opportune moment for such a defection, as Badenoch is almost certainly more inclined towards Lowe’s worldview than any recent Conservative leader. Her latest policy announcements, such as the deportation of all foreign criminals, play directly into Lowe’s core messages and could provide cover for a defection — especially if he were able to extract a few more major policy concessions as his price for joining.
Yet, for all that, it’s difficult to see the logic adding up from his perspective. Farage and his allies would say that the defection vindicated their claim that Lowe is just an ambitious careerist, while Lowe could alienate his enduring fanbase among Reform voters and activists. It would also transform him from a big fish in a small pond to a small fish in what remains, even at this moment of historic weakness, a relatively large pond. He’s of much greater interest to the press as Reform’s prince over the water than the 122nd Tory MP.
Perhaps it would be different if Badenoch could immediately elevate Lowe to the front bench and give him command of a major policy area. Then, at least, he’d be only the second Robert Jenrick. But that would likely lead to resignations by centrists, which the Tory leader simply cannot afford with barely enough MPs to man the shadow front bench.
That also highlights another challenge: could Lowe be sure the Conservative Party would keep developing in a direction he supported? He and Badenoch might be simpatico, but it’s an open question as to whether she makes it to the next election, and any Tory leader will have to grapple with the party’s strong centrist wing when making any policy commitments.
It doesn’t mean Lowe couldn’t make a difference. As an MP of uncommon energy and initiative (he self-financed his general election campaign), he could certainly be a good Tory MP, and play an important role in any eventual recovery.
But it would not be a sure thing, and the slow grind of rebuilding a major party is very different to the explosive excitement of breaking the mould with a new one. Lowe will probably not cede the spotlight unless and until it has already passed him by.
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SubscribeBut that would likely lead to resignations by centrists, which the Tory leader simply cannot afford
If Kemi is going to rebuild the Tories she needs to go very far to the right (to convince the voters that they are serious about immigration and crime) and that will always mean jettisoning the Wets (who are far to the left of the average Tory, let alone Reform voter on social issues). Surely she would be well advised to make the move you suggest and lose some “centrists” now while we are still 4 years away from a GE.
Agreed -the defection of wets like Peter Temple-Morris, Shaun Woodward and Robert Jackson after 1997 did the Tories absolutely no harm, and nor did the shedding of some Remainer MPs in 2019. She doesn’t need to go “very far to the right” on most issues, but she does need to be able to present a coherent and credible platform to voters, and carping from “centrists” clinging to failed policies just undermines that. Whether the Tories have 100 or 121 MPs is irrelevant for most voters – they just need enough of the right ones.
Err did them no harm?! You forget then they didn’t win an election outright until 2015 and Labour won 3 times on the bounce. Unprecedented.
Labour lost 5 million votes between 1997 and 2010, and the presence of Peter Temple-Morris within their ranks seems unlikely to have done them much good. Indeed the Conservatives underperformed in 2010 – what was unprecedented was for a governing party to increase support in successive elections as the Conservatives did in 2015, 2017 and in 2019 (all squandered now). Arguably Cameron’s “heir to Blair” posturing between 2005 -10 explained their electoral underperformance, by seeming like not much of a change once New Labour ran out of steam.
The main issue in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2024 was immigration*. This was of course the main issue in the EU referendum also.
The Tories were elected to reduce immigration from the 400k net we had from 2003-2019. Their manifestos in every election had said they were going to reduce it to less than 100k net (i.e. in line with the 1970-2000 average).
Instead they increased it to 1M net!
They have to do a lot of work to convince anyone that – this time – they are serious.
My suspicion is that the only way this can be done is through a coalition with Reform. That means they will have to commit to leaving the ECHR. And that means getting rid of those Tories that are likely to vote against.
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*opinion polls consistently show this to be the 3rd top issue. But the top two issues – the economy and the NHS – are evergreen and neither party is going to shift established opinion on those issues for very long. Labour always need to reassure people over their economics and Conservatives are the same with the NHS.
Let’s hope she does it. Just make the Tories and a party of the Right more unelectable.
It’s the problem with elements of the Right rattling around an echo chamber. They aren’t getting elected by a move to the Right. They have to acquire more centrists votes too and whilst they hate that it’s reality. Being divorced from reality will not help even if comforting.
Who controls the Conservative Party?
It’s not the members, still less the voters.
Have people learned nothing from 14 years of betrayal?
As an organisation, right to its roots, the Conservative Party is at best indifferent to the wellbeing of the British people.
As long as it exists as a force in British politics, it will draw votes away from parties that might make a difference.
The Conservative Party is beyond saving, and the sooner people give up on it, the better.
Lowe joining the Tories would be him going from hero to zero in an instant.