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December 14, 2023 - 4:30pm
“The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist”.
Thus began Russian President Vladimir Putin’s marathon four-hour “Year-End Recap” today. The combination of the annual “direct line” call-in session, in which he addresses citizens’ grievances, with the year-end journalists’ press conference made for some odd bedfellows — Russia’s leader slipped seamlessly between discussions of the price of eggs in Dagestan, whether grandmothers can be replaced by robots, and the Israel-Hamas war.
Putin missed both events last year, apparently for fear of awkward queries about Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. His return to the microphone today was not the only sign of a more confident, upbeat leader. This time, embracing the topic of Ukraine, he bragged that the Russian economy had survived sanctions so effectively that Russians could “not just feel confident but also progress” and revelled in Ukraine’s stalled counter-offensive, saying that “practically along the entire line of contact our armed forces are improving their situation, to put it modestly”.
Indeed, Russia’s President has every reason to feel more comfortable. Last week, Putin announced his intention to run for a fifth term in March 2024’s presidential election. With the opposition crushed and the media subjugated, a mandate until 2030 is all but guaranteed, and it could last until 2036, should Russia’s latter-day Tsar feel like running for a sixth term.
His press conference was well-timed, to say the least, coming at a moment when support for Ukraine is particularly fractured. The ongoing EU summit has been dominated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s opposition to the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU. Meanwhile, this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Washington for meetings with US President Joe Biden. While Biden offered a $200 million “drawdown” to maintain supplies for Ukraine, Republicans have continued to block a supplemental congressional aid package.
Although Republicans stressed that their intransigence was to secure a linked agreement on US border security, the impasse is symptomatic of a broader malaise. Following Ukraine’s disappointing counter-offensive, US officials told the New York Times that they and Kyiv are scrambling to hammer out a new strategy against a resurgent Russia now freshly stocked with new ammunition, missiles and Iranian drones. Divisions are becoming apparent: Ukraine wanting to go on the attack to gain global attention, while the US wants Kyiv to consolidate its men and territory in order to develop its weapons production capability over 2024.
Despite these looming challenges, today did not go perfectly for Putin either. Questions such as “When will our President pay attention to his own country?” and “When will the real Russia be the same as the one on TV?” flashed on screens at the venue, while Putin seemingly admitted that over 300,000 Russian soldiers have died or been heavily injured in Ukraine. Queries about inflation or frontline conditions showed the real-life consequences of Putin’s revanchist ambitions.
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SubscribeThe incompetent response to the Russian invasion is so typical of every major challenge facing the west today. Recognize a real threat and mismanage the response so horribly that the solution becomes worse than the problem.
We threw buckets of money at Ukraine and gave them unwavering support at the start. After some initial success, the goal changed and it became a proxy war against Russia. We then convinced Ukraine to reject negotiations when it had the upper hand. And now that the tide is turning in favour of Russia, the west has become bored and is no longer unwavering in its support.
We can only hope Russia is still willing to negotiate, now that it has the upper hand in the conflict. Trillions of dollars wasted and thousands of lives sacrificed for nothing.
‘We’ convinced Ukraine to not negotiate? Say rather we did not force them. As for negotiations, Putins goals ‘remain the same’: A defenceless Ukraine, run by a Russian puppet government. Was there ever any indication that he would have given up on that? At most he might have accepted an armistice, to prepare better for continuing the war.
Still drinking the Kool-Aid, huh?
Amazing to see someone who still thinks Ukraine isn’t worse off now than it would’ve been taking Russia’s terms back then. Good job “supporting” them and the western elites pushing this lunacy, I’m sure the Ukrainians think it was worth trading a corrupt democracy for a war-torn autocracy – for the bargain price of hundreds of thousands dead, millions displaced and billions wasted/grafted by those who need it least.
Perhaps the Ukrainians would rather die on their feet than live on their knees. Any terms agreed with Putin would turn out to be temporary.
The threat from Russia has been severe enough to reverse decades of neutrality in Sweden and Finland. I’ll take their assessment of the geo-strategic realities over yours I’m afraid.
More Kool-Aid for you then?
Yes, you’ve said this twice now. Not funny, and not an argument.
Why would the Russians negotiate with liars, its a waste of time
Why are there so many Putin boot lickers on this site?
I lick no boots, I’m a realist, I believe only in the cold hard facts
You will lose your war with reality
Putin isn’t in your estimation a liar then?
It was always going to end this way.
If our leaders had any decency they would have eaten a bit of humble pie at the beginning. Instead they were only concerned with their own optics
It is not as if the UK is actually sovereign
“The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist”.
I think Zelenskyy’s got a good point; I mean, if Ukraine isn’t free to make its own decisions, in what sense does it exist as a sover–
Thus began Russian President Vladimir Putin’s marathon four-hour “Year-End Recap” today.
*record scratch* Vladimir Putin?! What the hell?! …Oh, I see how it is. “Sovereignty for me, but not for thee.” Got it.
So Putin was asked to define what he meant by “sovereignty” in this session … and was unable or unwilling to do so. This is his number one priority and yet he cannot even be bothered to define it.
He will never succeed in demilitarising Ukraine now.
As for his fantasies about Western governments being like N..i collaborators – let’s just remember that Russia was an actual N..i collaborator (and active supplier of resources for the German military) from 1939 to 1941. As well as ivading Poland in 1939.
“The existence of our country without sovereignty is impossible. It will simply not exist”.
So he says.
But that’s not something he’s prepared to allow Ukraine – nor Estonia, Poland or Finland given the chance, is it ?
What’s so special about Russia that they deserve more rights than anyone else ?
The man is as delusional as his many supporters among the comments on articles like this.
The answer my friend is quite simply a matter of Money
And as Hungary stated whilst vetoing of EU financial aid to Ukraine
Why should Hungarian tax payers be asked to pay the wages and pensions of Ukrainian civil servants and teachers
The exact same question is now beginning to enter the minds of most Western tax payers
Now there’s a vote loser for those politicians in the Western democracies who now have to have a meeting
With their own thoughts
As always Charity begins at home
Especially when those who seek your charity are one of the most corrupt regimes globably
Hmm. The Hungarian cocking a snook at Brussels etc might be more convincing as national independence were in not being heavily subsidised by the EU.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for 10 years, not 2. It could drag on for 10 years more. Neither Ukraine nor Russia is strong enough to win or weak enough to lose. Stalemate.
There is a deal to be made here that would return both sides to something approximating peace. The Minsk accords and the Istanbul negotiations point the way to that.
As was Cicero, I am always in favor of peace. Even an unjust peace is better than the justest of civil wars.
But this is not a civil war. It’s an invasion.
Our difficulty is that the Czar, the Celestial Emperor Xi and various would be Caliphs see the World as it is…all our actual and potential “leaders” see it as they wish it was…at about the time Fukayama declared “The End of History”…
…when what we need is a Warlord, who thought Huntington’s “Clash of Civilisations” was vastly more prescient..!
As the most exposed corner of the Anglosphere, I thank God daily that we have a moat and that may give us some time…
History always suggested this might end with a 38th parallel Korean equivalent – neither side left with a clear victory. A long term militarised stand-off seems highly likely.
Ukraine has been unable to go on the offensive to the degree hoped – the Russians inevitably had time to dig in. But their position remains much better than in early 23. They have not been conquered, Bucha atrocities are not being visited on more of their Towns and Cities, and despite the likes of Orban and some US Republicans, they are much more within the Western fold than before.
Putin may have avoided the ignominy of outright defeat but his strategic position remains considerably weaker than before the Invasion. NATO has reasserted it’s raison d’etre and increased it’s membership. Whilst sanctions have not collapsed the Russian economy they are in a much worse position than they were. Internally, despite the attempt to appear otherwise, his position is weakened and he is aging. The Police state has had to further extend to maintain his control. And his reliance on Xi, and even munitions from Kim Wrong-Un, created a dependency he will not welcome.
There are many challenges ahead for Ukraine but there was an attempt to liquidate their existence and that has failed due their bravery and fortitude. From such narrative Nations find themselves.
Trouble is that Ukraine seems just as unlikely to oust Russia from the Donbas, let alone Crimea, as it has ever been. It may not have been “liquidated”, but it still must fight a war that continues to grind down a country that is in shambles.
An existential threat will inevitably lead to many dark nights. They know they have no choice but continue to resist. At some point that 38th parallel ceasefire likely but not yet. If NATO plays a role in guarantees then that may happen in 24. Much depends on Nov 24 though and Putin will continue to hope Agent Orange strengthens his hand and more Bucha’s can take place. Jack Smith has a much bigger role in a cessation/ceasefire in 24.
Putin seemingly admitted 300000 dead or heavily injured?
Even “Mediazona”, in collaboration with BBC News Russian service and a team of volunteers can only account for Russian 38000 deaths and casualties to 1/22/2023 and qualify upwards to 47000:
“The actual death toll is likely significantly higher. A joint data investigation by Mediazona and Meduza estimated in July that by the end of May, approximately 47,000 Russians under the age of 50 had died in the Ukraine war.”
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng
Just a reminder: Ukraine gave up its nukes under Bill Clinton in 1994 for guarantees of safety….
For whom did that brilliant idea work?
Ukraine never had nukes. Soviet nukes were stationed on the territory of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Ukraine, under Moscow’s control.
Russia never had nukes either. They were stationed on Russian territory, under control of the now long defunct Soviet communist party. .