24 August 2026 - 10:00am
Europe’s criminals have a new boss, and his name is Vladimir Putin. Some may not realise who ultimately sits at the top when they take orders on messaging apps to sabotage arms factories, but the Russian President’s fingerprints are all over these operations. Over the weekend, Western intelligence reported that Moscow has unleashed a new wave of disruption, outsourcing attacks on the continent’s defence industry to local gang members and disposable foot soldiers.
There are clear reasons why Russia favours this approach. After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, expulsions of Moscow’s spies severely disrupted its overseas crime networks, forcing intelligence services to recruit agents remotely. Sabotage serves a dual purpose, seeking to damage Europe’s actual military aid for Ukraine along with the political will underpinning it.
As British Prime Minister Andy Burnham visits Kyiv today, promising to boost Ukraine’s capacity to make its own long-range missiles, Russia’s increased sabotage activity is particularly important. Making support for Ukraine costly matters in countries such as Britain, where consistently strong public backing for Kyiv limits the Kremlin’s ability to use bribery, friendly local politicians and propaganda to influence opinion. Instead, it must turn to coercive methods. Nor is it coincidental that some recruits are themselves Ukrainian. Putin is whispering poisonous questions into European ears: is supporting Ukraine worth enduring high energy prices, furnishing billions in aid and footing the bill for refugees, only for that generosity to be repaid in firebombs?
While European intelligence services prepare for the possibility of a Russian attack by 2030, the Kremlin may be laying the groundwork now, probing weaknesses in critical infrastructure and testing how governments respond to attacks. Moscow has spotted that Europe’s rearmament can be undermined from within, as residents will protest new or expanded defence plants in their areas.
Since Russia’s actions remain below the threshold for Nato’s Article 5, Europe is divided over how to react. Poland and the Baltic states favour a vocal response, while Italy and Germany don’t want to provoke Moscow. The result is a more divided, weaker alliance, on the eve of a potential Russian assault. Sabotage does more than merely embarrass Europe by exposing how porous its defences are. Russia is also reducing the West’s confidence in itself by highlighting a troubling issue, namely how willing Europeans would be to defend their homeland when Moscow can so easily — and cheaply — persuade some to betray it now.
Given the potential benefits of sowing further discontent in Europe, it is unsurprising that Moscow’s attacks are increasing in both scale and ambition. European intelligence officers complain that Russia has escalated from graffiti and defacing monuments to arson and assassination. Such is the Kremlin’s audacity, it has targeted Keir Starmer while he was Prime Minister. More extraordinary still, Moscow was this month planning to assassinate an American citizen and so risk provoking the White House when Ukraine is pushing Washington for more weaponry.
As Europe strives to wean itself off Russian oil, Putin will keep disruption in his arsenal, turning the dial up or down in a bid to bend the continent to his will. In the Kremlin’s view, attacks on civilian life are justified retaliation for Europe’s role in enabling Ukrainian strikes against Russian territory. For the West, attribution is difficult. While European spies endeavour to recruit Russians to undermine Putin’s hold on power and the country’s war effort, it is unlikely they would be willing to engage in a similar campaign of sabotage against Moscow.
Putin’s most useful recruits may not see themselves as Russian agents, but this does not disguise the fact that Moscow has found a cheap, deniable and plentiful source of saboteurs ready to wreak havoc throughout Europe. With the West divided on how to respond, there is no reason for Russia to withdraw from this latest frontline.
