One of the most profound political impacts of the Israel-Hamas war is how it has reshaped the attitudes of Democratic voters. A new survey out this week demonstrates just how much their views towards the Jewish state have soured since October 7, 2023.

According to NBC News, two-thirds of Democrats now say their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians (67%) than the Israelis (17%). This represents a stark reversal from a decade ago, when a modest plurality (34%) sided more with Israel and just 18% sided with Palestinians. Similarly, the poll also found that a paltry 13% of Democrats hold a positive view of Israel, compared to 57% who have a negative view. Three years ago, before the current war, those figures were split at 34% and 35%, respectively.

As Democratic pollster Will Jordan noted, one of the biggest changes in that time has been among Democrats who were previously neutral or unsure of which side they supported more. Back in 2013, a strong plurality (48%) fell into this category. Now, that number has dropped to just 16%, with most Democrats today — especially those under the age of 50 — definitively on the side of the Palestinians.

This follows other recent evidence showing that Democrats have begun developing more hostile views not only toward the Israeli government but toward its people, too. In a survey last autumn, Pew Research found that Democrats and “Democratic leaners” were split, 48% to 48%, on whether they viewed Israelis themselves favourably or unfavourably, a negative swing compared to when Pew asked the same question in early 2024.

Until recently, candidates’ embrace of Israel was considered a political asset. Even as late as 2024, Aipac — the most influential, pro-Israel political organisation in the US — managed to oust two members of Congress who were critical of Israel’s war against Hamas in favour of friendlier Democrats. And in that same cycle, just 16% of Democratic voters said the conflict would factor a “great deal” in their choice for president.

Today, however, the winds have clearly reversed. Support for Israel (and from Aipac) seems more like a liability for candidates than an asset. High-profile Democrats are becoming more comfortable saying Israel is committing a “genocide” or comparing the country to an “apartheid state”, comments that would have been unthinkable coming from the mainstream of the party even two years ago. An astonishing 63 House Democrats have also co-sponsored a bill to severely curtail military aid to Israel.

It remains to be seen how these candidates will fare as primary season unfolds, but the evidence suggests that pro-Israel candidates running in deep-blue places are more vulnerable than they have ever been. And there is little doubt that Democrats of all stripes will be watching these contests with an eye on 2028. At this early juncture, it seems increasingly likely that antagonism towards Israel may become a new litmus test for the party’s presidential hopefuls.

Israel likely won’t be the top voting issue among primary voters, but there’s a reason why so many major Democratic figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, are nonetheless tacking further Left on the issue. The minority of voters on the Left who do care about it really care about it, and for many other Democrats it’s still a consideration, even if not the top one. They may be betting that siding with activists on these issues will ease the amount of resistance they face in the 2028 primary, which is far from guaranteed. By contrast, some observers think that Josh Shapiro, the Jewish Governor of Pennsylvania, may face an uphill battle for the nomination because those voters don’t like him — and because of growing levels of antisemitism among Democrats.

It’s possible that by 2028 other issues will dominate. But the topic is likely to come up early and often, pressuring candidates to align with pro-Palestinian activists. And this movement, combined with growing scepticism on the Right about Israel, is likely to fundamentally reshape the future of America’s relationship with its longtime ally.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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