MAGA voters do not win midterm elections. They are not sufficiently motivated to turn out for Republican candidates when Donald Trump is off the ballot. To prevail against difficult odds in November, the GOP will need to persuade Right-leaning voters that Democratic candidates are worse. This, to say the very least, means gas prices need to drop.

Writing in the New York Times, conservative pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson profiles the “party-first” or “normie” Republican voter, arguing they’re the most important cohort Republicans need to motivate in November. In contrast with “Trump-first” voters, Soltis Anderson notes that “party-first” voters are less motivated to vote, less pleased with the economy and Iran war, and less “upbeat” about the GOP on a range of critical policy matters. But, she writes, “that situation could improve if the economic outlook brightens, or if the war with Iran results in what these Republicans consider a victory.”

Even so, it’s unlikely that happier “party-first” Republicans would be enough to stop a Democratic Party takeover of the House of Representatives. It’s possible that a better economy and peace in Iran could save the Senate, boosting GOP candidates who can no longer get blamed for enabling Trump to spike gas prices and cause inflation. That’s obviously a heavy lift at this point.

The biggest help to Republicans, though, will be Democrats. Soltis Anderson is absolutely correct to point to “party-first” GOP voters as the critical demographic. Over the last year, she argues, “the number of Republicans who say they think of themselves more as supporters of the party than of Mr. Trump has risen substantially.”

This is important because non-MAGA Republicans are often motivated to hold their nose and vote Republican — and even for Trump — because they see Democrats as even worse. “The one thing that unites Trump-firsters with the rest of the party is disdain for the Democrats, including notable figures like Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” Soltis Anderson writes.

Why? Non-MAGA Republicans and Right-leaning independents are deeply wary of self-identified socialists. They are furious about efforts to mix boys into girls’ sports and bathrooms and locker rooms, or keep parents in the dark about gender transitions. They are distrustful of woke-coded social media histories. They remain vigilant against a return to Biden-era immigration policies. This is in no small part why, as the RealClearPolitics average shows, the Democratic Party’s unfavourability still remains higher than Republicans’. That is, even as gas prices spike and Trump’s numbers plummet.

This is what could help Republicans keep the Senate. This baggage likely keeps Texas out of their grasp, given Democrat James Talarico’s colourful history. It could also be a problem for Graham Platner in Maine and Sherrod Brown in Ohio. But Platner and Nebraska independent Dan Osborn are good examples of anti-establishment candidates whom Democrats weren’t backing earlier in the Trump era. Both will be contests to watch.

Republicans could still sweep those tough Senate races, especially if Trump winds down the war soon and finds a way to stave off more significant price hikes. The House, however, is likely to slide into the blue column. Even before the war, Trump himself was trying to lower expectations that Republicans would be able to hold onto the lower chamber. As Speaker Mike Johnson has learned, the narrower the majority, the more leverage it gives the opposition once control changes hands.

The scale of any Democratic victory will matter politically, but it won’t prevent a wave of subpoenas — and it would significantly constrain Trump’s ability to advance major legislation.

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Emily Jashinsky is UnHerd‘s Washington correspondent.

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