22 July 2026 - 10:00am
Mykhailo Drapatyi became widely known in Ukraine when his armoured vehicle was the first to crash through pro-Russian barricades in the city of Mariupol in 2014. Yesterday, he was made commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, replacing the unpopular Oleksandr Syrskyi after a week of protests calling for his removal.
Ukraine’s allies have hailed the move as good news, putting a talented military professional in charge of the war effort and proving the continued vibrancy of Ukraine’s democracy. Look more closely, however, and this narrative is nothing but a spin job. Instead, Kyiv’s latest saga points to a country that is increasingly consumed by political dysfunction as it tries to distract audiences at home and abroad from its military struggles.
Drapatyi’s appointment was just the latest in a series of personnel moves ordered by President Volodymyr Zelensky over the past week. Among the most high-profile was the firing of Ukraine’s defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who had been widely credited with Ukraine’s recent successes using drones to strike Russian energy targets and cut off Moscow’s logistical supplies to Crimea.
This was Zelensky’s second government overhaul in the past year and, much like last time, few clear explanations have been offered. There has been speculation that the moves were driven by a corruption cover-up, personality clashes, or substantive disagreements. Zelensky himself says the changes in personnel are necessary to prepare for the coming winter, which many expect to be difficult.
From the outside, however, Zelensky’s repeated shake-ups seem more like expressions of his own political ambition. These changes can be seen to be part of a play for domestic political consolidation, achieved by removing possible challengers such as Fedorov and installing replacements he believes he can control.
This can be explained by Zelensky’s fixation on domestic politics, which has grown over this year and should worry his backers in Europe and the United States. Focused on his own domestic political success, the Ukrainian President is both distracted from the war effort and beholden to it. To avoid elections he might lose, he needs the war to continue. But his efforts to secure his own future with constant political reshuffles put Ukraine’s future at risk.
There are other reasons to worry about Ukraine’s future. Zelensky’s decision to change the leaders of the country’s armed forces and defence ministry in the same week reveals much about the war’s progress — and the signs are worrying.
For months, Ukraine’s fiercest supporters have argued that Ukraine has “turned the tide” and is winning the war. But countries that are winning their wars do not remove and replace their defence leaders in the middle of a successful campaign. It might break well-established lines of communication, while it could also damage soldier morale or weaken centralised control of the force.
That Zelensky chose to make these moves now suggests that the war may not be going as well as Kyiv has publicly claimed. Russian military forces continue to make slow gains in Ukraine’s east and are moving closer to the “fortress belt” cities that are the crown jewels of Kyiv’s defence. Ukraine’s vulnerability to Russia’s deep strikes is also increasing as it lacks the Patriot missiles to protect civilian infrastructure and populations. Turmoil in the leadership ranks is therefore the canary in the coal mine, indicating that Ukraine’s war is going worse than advertised.
Unfortunately, a new commander-in-chief, no matter how battle-hardened and accomplished, is unlikely to shift the trajectory of the war because he will not be able to overcome the structural challenges that have faced Ukraine since day one.
He cannot address Ukraine’s lack of manpower, which is as much a function of its smaller population as the diminishing interest of Ukrainian men to join a brutal military fight. He cannot address Ukraine’s lack of the necessary air defence systems to protect military and civilian targets, which stems from a global shortage. Most importantly, he cannot reverse the slow ebb of Western support, most recently manifested in the EU’s inability to agree on a 21st sanctions package and the growing number of states now drawing back their military or economic support to Ukraine.
Despite hopes for a new beginning, Drapatyi will take control of the Ukrainian armed forces while facing many obstacles. Worst of all, already institutionally weakened by the chaos that preceded him, he will have to deal with the lingering fear that before too long, he may be the next victim of Ukraine’s political machine.
jekavanagh