After attempting to force through his budget without a majority in the National Assembly, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has been deposed by an ad hoc coalition of the Left and the Rassemblement National. He managed only 246 votes in support, out of a possible 577.
When Emmanuel Macron appointed Barnier to be his next prime minister in September, the former Brexit negotiator knew he was signing up for perhaps the most difficult job in his long career. Just three months later, he now holds the record for the shortest-serving French government since 1958. The parliamentary arithmetic had become too complicated over the looming budget. Barnier and his minority government knew they were at the mercy of Marine Le Pen should she decide to join forces with the Left for a no-confidence vote. After weeks of toying with the Prime Minister, she has decided to end her transactional support for the centre.
As for Barnier’s successor, we are in uncharted waters. Macron could decide to appoint another member of Les Republicains in his stead. It would not be a particularly conciliatory sign, but crafting an alternative majority seems difficult. The centre-left does not appear any more willing to prop up Macron than it did last summer. A coalition with Le Pen is an obvious non-starter. And so the President will have to start again and hope that Barnier’s scalp appeases an angry public.
But as this political crisis continues to engulf France, fingers will increasingly be pointed at Macron himself, who is ultimately responsible for the current parliamentary chaos thanks to his decision to dissolve parliament in June. While he cannot call for another snap vote until next summer, he could break the deadlock by resigning and triggering anticipated presidential elections.
At present, this seems unlikely. But should the deadlock persist, Macron will be the target of attacks from all directions, including from within his own ranks. Within his increasingly fractious orbit, many have already been marking their ground for the next presidential race — including three of his four previous prime ministers — and now consider the President to be a disconnected lame duck solely responsible for the disastrous snap vote of this summer.
Giving weight to this vision, Le Monde paints an unflattering portrait of an isolated monarch surrounded by a small inner circle of obsequious advisors. In pompous Gaullean fashion, Macron now allegedly talks about his French compatriots as “mon peuple”. While Le Monde’s article should be taken with a grain of salt given the paper’s hostility to the President, Macron has undeniably lost his magic touch and lacks the political capital to wield any meaningful power.
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SubscribeBack in the 1960’s, the cover of an edition of Private Eye was a photo of de Gaulle with the speech bubble “Pendant moi la déluge”. They could re-cycle it just now.
Le Pen might fall victim to lawfare, but my impression is that this would not be such a disaster for the RN. My French friends might be a biassed sample, but they seemed to be enthused by M. Bardella.
Obviously, devaluation is the only way out.
Oh, wait…
Our political situation is mess, with no easy or good option.
The press is burgeoning with trending names for candidates, but last time it took two months to form a government. New snap elections are impossible (unless Macron resigns).
When Belgium had a year with no government (due to no working coalition), it was a great economic year where most indicators improved. Maybe it could be an option for France.
It’s the economic problems that are impacting the German and French Govts. The deep seated structural issues are manifesting and the decline is underway. Hopefully, a new direction for those countries and the EU can be sorted out. Starting with a common capital market structure in economies reliant primarily on banks to finance new initiatives. Credit to Wolfgang Munchau for pointing this out. It will be messy and fractured until then
I am starting to think we might be witnessing the beginning of the end of the EU in all this. The long stored seeds of its destruction (sequestering member states ‘competencies’ to itself) are now finally finding nutrient-rich compost in the spiralling government debt, energy prices, deteriorating economic conditions and rising, immigration driven societal tensions, in its two principle players France and Germany. Furthermore, neither country is any longer in possession of the tools it requires to address these issues. If it were just one or the other in a state of increasing stagnation, then it might be possible to recover. However, with both the political engine (France) and the economic engine (Germany) of the EU facing unsolvable domestic situations how long can the centre hold? Germany’s government has already collapsed, now France’s – the auguries are not looking good.