March 20, 2024 - 3:40pm
Enoch Powell observed that “all political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure.” There was no such happy cut-off for Leo Varadkar, who today announced his resignation as Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael.
Earlier this month, his government suffered two humiliating defeats in referendums to change the Irish constitution’s definition of the family and language on the role of women.
Despite almost the entire political class lining up behind a Yes/Yes vote and polls suggesting comfortable majorities in favour of change, in the event Irish voters rejected both amendments by wide margins and on a respectable turnout.
It can plausibly be argued that Varadkar made this rod for his own back. The successful No campaigns focused on the lack of clarity from ministers about the impact of the new terminology on a wide range of matters from inheritance to immigration.
This danger had been flagged to ministers. But instead of taking the time to iron out the question, the Irish government pressed ahead with rushed proposals — with disastrous results.
Perhaps the overwhelming support of Dublin’s political class blinded policymakers to the danger of how the new wording would be received in the country. Perhaps, too, the symbolism of holding the vote on International Women’s Day (and the impact this might have on the outcome) proved too tempting to resist.
But a cynic might also note that this year’s European elections are coming up in June; the timing of Varadkar’s departure may well have at least something to do with ensuring that he’s free to take up a new role in Brussels, the standard career trajectory for many politicians after leaving office.
His decision to push ahead with the referendum may thus have been dictated in part by the desire to bolster his legacy with a last big, progressive achievement.
If so, Varadkar should have paid closer attention to Nicola Sturgeon, whose own departure was precipitated by a similar scramble to pass her controversial Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill — teeing up a confrontation in which the British Government could, for the first time, wield its veto without provoking Scottish voters.
Taking a longer view, history will probably come to view Varadkar’s premierships through the lens of two issues: Brexit, and the relentless advance of Sinn Féin.
His maximalist approach to Northern Ireland since 2016, insisting that there could be no border at all with the Republic, was doubtless at least partly driven by the growing strength of the republican party in the latter’s politics.
The long-term impact of this remains to be seen. But with Ireland still a long way from being willing or able to shoulder the burdens of annexing its northern neighbour, his praying in aid of the Belfast Agreement in pursuit of a policy far beyond its terms may come back to haunt policymakers on both sides of the Irish Sea.
Meanwhile, it was under Varadkar that Fine Gael took the seismic step of entering coalition with Fianna Fáil, historically Ireland’s dominant party. Until 2020, these were Ireland’s two principal parties of government (Fine Gael usually governing with Labour).
Yet after months of stalemate following the 2020 election, the two were forced to share office, along with the Greens. While this kept Sinn Féin out in the short term, it means both now own the failures of government, creating fertile territory for the republicans.
Last week, the Dublin establishment got lucky. Sinn Féin may venerate terrorists but the party is not full of classical populists either, lining up with the other parties on the referendum and on other hot-button issues such as immigration.
Sinn Féin may yet grow more willing to abandon select progressive shibboleths — or another party might arise in the space it refuses to occupy. Then, the self-consciously modernising Varadkar may come to appear instead as part of the Irish establishment’s long rearguard against much less welcome change.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeThe arrogance. At least the Brexit referendum was predicated on being the climax to a thirty year debate. These fools in Dublin thought the proles would get into line without doing the ground work first. They live on another planet.
Leo Varadkar played a blinder on Brexit, he obtained all of the Irish demands, which explains why he is hated so much by the Unionists and the Conservatives in England (*).
But on the social-policy side, he totally misread the Irish people. You could say that the referendums on gay marriage and abortion were the Irish people objecting to the government poking their nose in other people’s business. Curiously though, the TDs most involved with getting the abortion referendum over the line all lost their seats at the last election (Kate O’Connell, Regina Doherty, Katherine Noone, Catherine Zappone, etc. etc.). You could say this particular change was a necessary evil, but nothing to be celebrated. The two very recent referendums were maybe not evil but definitely not necessary – virtue-signalling nonsense driven by taxpayer funded NGOs but with possible side-effects down the road.
I think Mr Varadkar failed to understand these complexities, and played too much to the woke gallery instead. The woke gallery gave him no votes. 11 out of 34 of his TDs are planning to resign before the next election. To add insult to injury, the Guardian – an occasional observer of Irish affairs – has just called time on the liberal NGO bandwagon in Ireland:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/20/irish-referendum-fiasco-puts-future-of-lauded-citizens-assemblies-in-doubt
In short, Mr Varadkar failed to comprehend some basic facts about Irish society that are well understood outside of Dublin 15. It’s not all his fault though – many people failed in this regard, and are only waking up now to that failure.
Arguably, Mr Varadkar’s real tragedy is that he started out as a sort of Thatcherite. He would have been happier in Rishi Sunak’s shoes – as leader of the UK Conservative Party. But he tried to impress people and constituencies who did not like him or respect him. He was not true to his own beliefs. He has paid the price.
(*) This will also explain the downvotes on this post.
I won’t downvote you but I don’t think Varadkar played a blinder on Brexit at all. If he had then then protocol would not have had to be renegotiated with the Windsor Framework.
He and Coveney were basically like those weedy kids in the playground who just happen to be mates with the biggest bully in school and tells the latter to go and beat up their enemy.
All that did was create an unsustainable situation which would have to be quietly backed down off of sooner or later.
I don’t suppose anyone will miss Leo much on either side of the Irish Sea.
It’s not quite that simple. The UK decided to pull out of the EU – their choice and I wish them well. We won’t know whether it will have a positive or negative effect (or not matter either way) for several years. However, Ireland also has its interests and the right to protect them; in this case they did not coincide with that of the UK and indeed Brexit presented many economic and political challenges. A great pity in many ways as relations between the countries had never been better right before that. If you want to employ the bully metaphor why don’t you refer back to the lead up to Irish independence?
Because referring back to events 100 years ago always solves problems doesn’t it?
It’s the Irish disease.
It may be but the Scots have it too along with a number of others.
I’m referring to a comment, not solving historical problems, you dodo.
I agree. He took the easy short term path of least resistance. Whether that was really in Ireland’s long term interest is still to be discovered.
Last time I checked, the UK was still Ireland’s biggest trading partner.
No longer. The UK does have a large trade surplus with Ireland (nearly $8 billion). Ireland is one of the best markets for UK exports.
?ezimgfmt=rs%3Adevice%2Frscb1-1
Ireland’s Top Trading Partnersby Daniel Workman
by FlagPictures.org
The top 5 customers buying Ireland’s exports in 2021 were the United States of America, Germany, United Kingdom, Belgium and the Netherlands. Collectively, that quintet of major customers buying Irish exports accounted for over two-thirds (68%) of Ireland’s total shipments in 2022 by value.
Top US Trading Partners
Ireland’s Top Trading PartnersBelow is a list showcasing 25 of Ireland’s top trading partners in terms of Irish export sales. That is, countries that imported the most Irish shipments by dollar value during 2022. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total Irish exports.
United States: US$62.7 billion (29.3% of Ireland’s total exports)Germany: $26.5 billion (12.4%)United Kingdom: $23.1 billion (10.8%)Belgium: $18.4 billion (8.6%)Netherlands: $14.8 billion (6.9%)China: $13.7 billion (6.4%)France: $7.5 billion (3.5%)Italy: $4.7 billion (2.2%)Japan: $4.2 billion (1.9%)Canada: $3.5 billion (1.6%)Switzerland: $3.4 billion (1.6%)Spain: $2.8 billion (1.3%)Mexico: $2.6 billion (1.2%)Australia: $1.64 billion (0.8%)Poland: $1.56 billion (0.7%)Czech Republic: $1.54 billion (0.7%)Sweden: $1.09 billion (0.5%)Israel: $1.08 billion (0.5%)South Korea: $947 million (0.4%)Türkiye: $842.7 million (0.4%)Malaysia: $771.4 million (0.4%)Singapore: $752.1 million (0.4%)Hong Kong: $701.9 million (0.3%)India: $635.8 million (0.3%)Saudi Arabia: $625 million (0.3%)
In 2022, Ireland incurred the highest trade deficits with the following countries.
United Kingdom: -US$7.7 billion (country-specific trade deficit in 2022
Interesting Guardian article. Citizens assemblies finish up dominated by special interest groups and steered by chairmen with an agenda.
Good lord, who would have thought that would happen?
Katherine is spot on with the bully analogy.
“Leo Varadkar played a blinder on Brexit, he obtained all of the Irish demands“. And Ireland has to live with the result of those demands, including a resurgent Sinn Fein, a hard border down the Irish Sea contributing to the cost of living both North and South (given that east-west trade is more economically important to both than North-South trade is to either), and a chaotic and unaffordable unification edging closer. In case you haven’t noticed, Unionists are Irish too, and poisonous relations with Unionists and with the UK is not in Ireland’s interests.
Well said!
“ Unionists are Irish too” I’m not sure that it’s a question of not noticing, more a mix of some thinking they are not and others thinking that unification will magically make them disappear!
There are many unionists, like myself, who could probably be talked into supporting a united Ireland. It will take persuasion though, not the EUs big stick.
Varadkar has set back the unification cause by years. SF remain the biggest obstacle although a mixture of pride and zealotry will never let them see that.
It is interesting that these comments suggest that Leo Varadkar has made unification “edge closer” and that he has also “set back the unification cause by years”. I always knew the former Taoiseach was shrewd but truly, this is Charles-Haughey level cunning.
There is a difference between a unification which works, is economically sustainable, and is widely accepted by the population because it is built on mutual respect, and one which is stumbled into without planning because Britain has pulled the plug. Thanks to Leo, the first is now less likely, the second more likely.
A unification based on mutual respect, solid planning, and a vision for all of the traditions on the island of Ireland sounds good to me – and to a lot of other Irish people as well, to be sure. Like the IRFU but for politics. So that’s why the kind of language in this article is so obnoxious:
What liúdramán in this day and age would talk about annexation?
Given the amount of auld guff around Brexit Unionists have been expected to swallow from Varadkar and others, I don’t think anyone who thinks Varadkar played a blinder on Brexit can be overly sensitive around language. Annex, incorporate, whatever. It’s still expensive and difficult, and there is no plan to do it.
It’s not about sensitivity to language. It’s about truth. Annexation is a strawman. There is nothing in the Good Friday Agreement about annexation.
He was not true to his own beliefs – Do you think he had them?
He will not be missed. Another illiberal, woke, backdoor authoritarian defenestrated; albeit he jumped before being pushed. The list is growing – Arden, Sturgeon, Drakeford, now Varadkar. Fingers crossed on Trudeau next year.
So much potential, so little achievement. To impress progressive opinion Varadkar drove a wedge between Fine Gael and its erstwhile supporters. He leaves Fine Gael at its lowest ever ebb, particularly outside Dublin, and created a gap in the political spectrum where it should be, to be filled by default by Sinn Fein and a hodge podge of independents. Meanwhile Ireland suffers from sclerotic unreformed public services and the highest cost of living in the Eurozone, small business staggers under the burden of uncosted regulation, housing is unaffordable, immigration is uncontrolled and free speech is under attack. The Leo Varadkar who came into politics seemed to offer solutions to these issues. But the party boy he became in office ended up as part of the problem.
And at the stroke of a pen in Washington or Brussels – if and when they’re no longer prepared to put up with Ireland’s role in global tax dodging – it could all disappear.
Leo Varadkar in his best.
He complained that Irish institutions were too white and promised to promote more “black and coloured” people into power.
https://twitter.com/RadioGenoa/status/1770429263700791536
When in doubt, grift.
Then we don’t need Rwanda.
Just ship our migrants to Ireland.
They love them, allegedly.
OK, maybe just Varadkar…