England has entered a new era of fragmented local politics. Our analysis shows that, for the first time since 1973 — the earliest available data — more than half of the country’s councils are being run by minority administrations, where no single party has control of over 50% of seats. As many of these councils depend on power-sharing agreements between parties with sharply different political priorities, the practical realities of coalition government will soon become apparent. More broadly, they will test whether local and national government can work effectively together in an increasingly fragmented political landscape.

The rise of power-sharing councils

Percentage of councils under ‘No overall control’ and ‘Party majority’

Birmingham City Council, England’s largest authority, provides a striking example. Last week, it was announced that the council would be run by a coalition of the Liberal Democrats, Greens, Birmingham Independents and Better Birmingham, the latter of which is made up of moderate independent Muslim councillors. While these parties may agree on some issues, there will surely be radical disagreement between the Left-wing Greens and more centrist Lib Dems. Given that Birmingham City Council has an annual budget of £4.4 billion and the Government has provided the authority with hundreds of millions in additional financial support in recent years, failure to govern effectively could be costly for the Treasury.

Similar patterns are emerging elsewhere. In Worcestershire, the Conservatives agreed a power-sharing deal with the Greens and Lib Dems to oust Reform UK, with the Tory leader behind the deal later suspended by the party for his role in the coalition. In Enfield, councillors from the Conservatives and Greens have also teamed up to oppose the Government’s new town in Crews Hill. While the two parties are clear ideological opponents, they have no problem working together to face a common enemy. The question remains, though: how long can that last?

This phenomenon touches on a wider problem. The national government — whether it’s this Labour ministry or another further down the line — can no longer assume that local authorities will be willing partners in delivering its agenda. As political control becomes more fragmented, securing local cooperation is likely to become an increasingly challenging part of governing.

For Labour, this is a particularly pressing problem. With the exception of 2009, the year after the Global Financial Crisis, Labour has fewer councillors now than any time in the last 50 years. Our analysis shows that the last time Labour lost more than 1,500 councillors during a local election was in 1976. And even then, that defeat occurred under highly unusual circumstances. Then-Prime Minister Harold Wilson announced his resignation just six weeks before the elections, while the UK economy was experiencing severe turbulence, with soaring inflation and a sterling crisis.

Labour has been losing power in local councils for decades

Total number of Labour councillors over time

What makes the current moment different is that it reflects deeper shifts in political allegiances rather than a temporary shock. Given the extent to which Labour and the Conservatives lost seats in May’s elections, it is clear that British voters are unhappy with the status quo. When this fragmentation plays out at the local level, it has significant national implications. As political control is increasingly dispersed across parties with very different priorities, it becomes harder for the central government to turn national priorities into local change.

That could prove particularly challenging for efforts to extend devolution. Burnham’s vision of “maximum devolution” of powers and funding to mayors and local leaders may run up against the reality of a more fragmented political landscape. The Mayor of Greater Manchester’s ambitions to accelerate council housebuilding, for example, could face resistance from Reform-led authorities that are already sceptical about the allocation of social housing and place a greater emphasis on prioritising existing residents.

For Labour, this means that winning the next general election may not be enough. The party will also need to pay far greater attention to retaining — and winning back — council seats and mayoralties. In an increasingly devolved system, success in Westminster alone does not guarantee the ability to deliver on national priorities.