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September 23, 2024 - 10:40am
The coverage of the recent events in Lebanon and northern Israel has warned of the vanishing chances that an “all-out war” can be avoided.
In reality, it is likely that the war has already commenced. After months of build-up, many are waiting for a decisive moment — such as an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon or a mass barrage of rockets from Hezbollah — to declare that the war has truly begun.
As far as the Israeli military is concerned, however, the pager attack was effectively the opening salvo. Israel’s forces have committed themselves to stop the rocket attacks north of the country and allow the displaced residents to return, and now they are attempting to fulfil that goal. This weekend, Hezbollah responded with more rocket attacks on the Israeli port city Haifa, illustrating that a conflict is already well underway.
The political imperatives for this war are obvious: unlike the increasingly divisive conflict in Gaza, a war with Hezbollah to end the shelling of northern Israel and allow the displaced to return has support from different parties and different sections of society. The electoral base of Netanyahu’s Likud party may have washed their hands of the hostages, but they are not willing to accept the humiliation of Hezbollah rendering a large swathe of the country uninhabitable.
A war in the north also provides a distraction — for both the domestic audience and international opinion — from the operation in Gaza, which has notably failed to either return the hostages or destroy Hamas. (Israeli news yesterday reported a rumour that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed, and the IDF is trying to seek confirmation, which would change this picture.) Indeed, since the pager attacks, the world’s media has shifted its focus from the tens of thousands of dead civilians in Gaza to arcane points about acceptable levels of collateral damage and the potentials of electronic warfare.
This new war obviously comes with huge new risks, most seriously an all-out bombardment of Israel by the full range of Hezbollah missiles, which, if it ever happened, would overwhelm the Iron Dome and inflict death and damage to property unprecedented in Israeli history. Any ground invasion of Lebanon would also surely inflict a higher casualty rate on Israeli troops than has been seen in Gaza.
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SubscribeHas the Islamic war against Israel ever ended? I realise the author is trying to distinguish between ongoing hostilities and ‘all out war’ but there is really no distinction when rockets are fired at northern Israel virtually ever day, year after year, and the threat of cross-border terror attacks on civilians is relentless.
A war in the north also provides a distraction — for both the domestic audience and international opinion — from the operation in Gaza, which has notably failed to either return the hostages or destroy Hamas
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From the very beginning, the IDF said that eliminating Hamas would take more than a year, but the author, of course, knows better.
But they’ve had almost a year. And the stated objectives – freeing the hostages was a critical one – are not fully met. So it seems fair to observe that it hasn’t been a complete success.
So I’m not sure what you’re objecting to. He’s only measuring Israel’s achievements against their own (perhaps slightly unrealistic) original goals.
“And the stated objectives – freeing the hostages was a critical one – are not fully met.”
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Who else but you seriously suggests that freeing the hostages was a critical one and the first one?
If you use your brain, it becomes quite obvious that this task can only be solved accidentally and partially. Unfortunately, many people use their heads to eat by them, nothing more.
Well, the Israeli government for one (and certainly not me). I agree it is unrealistic. But they defined their success criteria – not you or I.
They are lying and everyone knows it.
The truth at last…
“Whatever the strategy, it is hard to see how the government and military commanders can now de-escalate”
Strange statement given that this is obviously a planned assault, as demonstrated by the pager and walkie-talkie attacks to damage comms and command structure. Israel are clearly not going to de-escalate.
Netanyahu was shown laughing after the ridiculous charade of Iran’s signposted and weak response to Israel’s attack on their soil a few months back. Looks like that made it clear to Israel that Iran/Hezbollah don’t want war. Presumably that display of weakness has encouraged them to go on the attack.
This whole situation is tragic. It’s awful. It could be stopped very simply. That it goes on is a proxy for wider and similar but far less violent confrontation globally. I see this as an all out attack not only on Israel but on all Christians and freedom. Islam seeks to dominate everywhere it touches, land or sea. It’s not peaceful. We see it everyday. Proxy because as we see in our own country and Europe that we’re under insidious attack by our rulers and global capital, both seek aggressive conformance and manipulation but by economic means, permanent propaganda and social ostracism for dissenters. Israel must prevail and the social and economic order must undergo enormous upheaval for the same reasons, freedom, agency and order.
Too right the status quo can’t hold. But that Hezbollah, or Iran for that matter, have not responded ‘decisively’ is not necessarily good news for Israel – the threat is doing a great deal to weaken israel as it is. Their army is not, and has never, been designed to fight a long-war. Their conscripts are knackered and haven’t been working productively for months, their globally mobile tech workers mostly want to live somewhere safe – which now means somewhere else – and most of the economy otherwise is a shell of US and diaspera hand-outs.
That Iran, a major state with a few millennia of history might be playing a long-game here should surprise no one.
Given their performance in Gaza and the outcome of their previous invasions of Lebanon, I expect they would only suffer more humiliation. Why the Israeli establishment and foreign backers have put up with Netanyahu’s lunacy for so long I have no idea.
As opposed to doing what precisely to try to protect their citizens?
How about playing nicely with their neighbours?
I know, ludicrous isn’t it. I can’t believe I even typed it – these are Israelis we’re talking about.
What would you have them doing? Nuking Gaza? I can get myself behind that, I’m not gonna lie
Given their performance in Gaza and the outcome of their previous invasions of Lebanon, I expect they would only suffer more humiliation.
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Where did you see humiliation? We saw humiliation in Afghanistan, in Red Sea, but where did you see it in Gaza?
The humiliation of being accused of genocide…