14 July 2026 - 7:00pm
Gavin Newsom is, as usual, indulging in a public relations blitzkrieg. But some suspect he may be losing his grip on his real ambition: a move to the White House.
Recent polling suggests that Governor Brylcreem is losing ground to California’s other potential presidential contender, Kamala Harris. Indeed, as both have used book tours to boost their profiles, it is Harris — not Newsom — who appears to be extending her lead in early Democratic presidential polling.
That may be partly because Harris, after a long period of relative silence, is increasingly starting to sound like a candidate again. Unlike Newsom, she also does not have to defend a record as governor of California that is at best mixed, and which offers plenty of ammunition for potential rivals. Her bigger challenge will be distancing herself from the unpopular Biden years and her role within them.
To be sure, California continues to generate enormous wealth from a handful of dominant tech companies. But the state is also plagued by some of the country’s worst economic indicators: one of the highest poverty rates, sluggish job growth, high unemployment, an extraordinarily expensive housing market and low literacy rates.
More recently, a series of corruption allegations have reached Newsom’s inner circle, including his former chief of staff Dana Williamson. Even his attacks on Trump have begun to lose their novelty, as more aggressive voices from the party’s rising activist Left increasingly shape Democratic messaging. The DSA wing appears less concerned by the political reality that Democrats must distance themselves from parts of the neo-socialist agenda if they hope to win back some Trump voters.
Like Harris, Newsom has sought to accommodate the party’s socialist wing, describing it as a legitimate faction within the Democratic “big tent”. But he is burdened by the perception that he is a wealthy, establishment figure: white, male and associated with California’s elite class. More importantly, he has resisted proposals such as a wealth tax, which won’t play well with the Democratic grassroots.
Newsom understands that a wealth tax could carry major risks for California’s top-heavy economy, where a small number of wealthy individuals and companies provide a disproportionate share of tax revenue. That money helps fund the state’s expansive welfare programmes, which in turn sustain the political loyalties of public-sector workers and beneficiaries.
The Left’s hostility towards AI and data centres creates another dilemma. Software remains the primary engine of California’s tech economy, while much of the hardware manufacturing base has moved elsewhere. Calls from the activist Left to restrict data centres amount to a direct challenge to the AI ambitions of the very tech industry that forms Newsom’s core constituency.
Balancing the demands of the activist Left will be difficult for a governor whose primary concern must remain fiscal stability. If the AI boom that has helped drive markets begins to falter, California could find itself exposed. The state’s revenues have historically fallen sharply during stock market downturns, as seen after the dotcom crash, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 market slump. If wealthy residents and major companies continue to leave, California could face a fiscal crisis — a nightmare scenario for Newsom heading into a presidential campaign. A potential departure of Paramount, amid its planned merger with Warner Bros, would add to those concerns.
One might expect Newsom to lead a counterattack against the Left, much as Joe Biden did against Bernie Sanders in 2020. But Newsom’s defining instinct has always been political survival. His preferred strategy is to appeal simultaneously to activists and moderates rather than openly confront either side.
In the months ahead, Harris may watch with satisfaction as her rival navigates a series of contentious issues that have become central causes for the activist Left. Newsom has shown he is willing to abandon progressive positions when politically necessary. But as a lame-duck governor, he must also contend with Sacramento lawmakers pushing for higher taxes on the wealthy. Refusing to follow that agenda risks further attacks from the DSA wing of the party.
Yet Newsom should not be counted out. Among the limited options available to Democrats, he may still be able to convince donors and parts of the Left that he is the candidate best positioned to prevent a President JD Vance.
Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.
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