Show the economic consequence of Zero Covid in one chart

Hold my beer pic.twitter.com/6t9BlNzsqY

— Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) April 5, 2022

Over a twelve-month period it shows the number of ships waiting to load or discharge at Shanghai. The blue and red lines allow us to compare 2021 to what’s happening this year. Against the long-term average (shown in black), we can see clear signs of disruption starting in August last year — which is when supply chain bottlenecks started to develop at container ports across the world. But while that was bad enough, the current situation is much worse. 

Depending on how long the lockdown lasts in Shanghai and other Chinese cities, there will be knock-on impacts on the global economy. However, the effects are complicated. Though any restriction to the supply of Chinese exports will push up inflation in the West, the continuing lockdowns are constraining Chinese demand for oil and gas imports — helping to limit the surge in global energy prices. It’s too early to tell how these factors will balance out over time.

What we can see clearly, however, are the limitations of China’s “Zero Covid” policy. With Europe learning to live with Covid, the Chinese approach — which once drew grudging admiration — now doesn’t look so effective. 

While a case can be made for lockdowns as a temporary sure before the roll-out of vaccines, the Chinese policy of ongoing lockdowns and inadequate vaccination is clearly not a winner. 

That’s especially true when the lockdown policy is as draconian as it is in China. In Shanghai it involves testing all 25 million residents — and carting off the infected to quarantine facilities. Almost all vehicle movements are prohibited and most businesses have been closed — apart from essential services like food shops. However, in some areas of the city, residents aren’t even allowed to leave their homes to get food. 

As seen on Weibo: Shanghai residents go to their balconies to sing & protest lack of supplies. A drone appears: “Please comply w covid restrictions. Control your soul’s desire for freedom. Do not open the window or sing.” https://t.co/0ZTc8fznaV pic.twitter.com/pAnEGOlBIh

— Alice Su 蘇奕安 (@aliceysu) April 6, 2022

It’s an intolerable situation — and a test of the state’s ability to control its people’s behaviour and contain their protests. The dystopian scenes coming out of China include a robot dog patrolling a deserted street with a propaganda-spewing speaker strapped to its back. And then there’s the aerial drone (see above) flying through the night sky instructing residents to “control your soul’s desire for freedom… do not open the window or sing…”

For many of us in the West, China’s apparently successful Covid policy was a bitter irony (given the origin of the pandemic). But, as with Russia’s war in Ukraine, we can see that the ruthless efficiency of the authoritarian state is certainly ruthless, but not so efficient.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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