While much of the Red Wall fell in 2019, Newcastle remained one of Labour’s most dependable urban strongholds. That Labour has now all but collapsed in the local elections here shows just how fractured British politics has become.

The final result is a testament to the new fragmentation that Newcastle finds itself in: the Liberal Democrats finished on 25 seats, with both Reform UK and the Greens close behind on 24 each, while Labour collapsed to just two councillors. Newcastle has not swung uniformly to Reform like some other parts of the North East, but it has seen a dramatic splintering of the city’s old Labour base. If Keir Starmer’s party can’t hold onto this traditional base, then it is a sign of how much trouble Labour is in.

A closer look at the results uncovers how this base is splitting apart. In traditionally working-class areas such as Denton, Westerhope, and Blakelaw, Reform candidates topped the polls with commanding margins, even beating former Labour council leader Karen Kilgour in the process. In student- and graduate-heavy inner wards such as Heaton, Monument, and Ouseburn, the Greens surged. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, dominated more affluent and professional areas like Gosforth, Jesmond, and Parklands. This split is a microcosm of the challenge Labour faces: working-class areas moving to Reform and an energetic youth base going to the Greens.

What makes Newcastle distinctive is the tension between its proud Geordie civic identity and its unresolved post-industrial decline. The city has spent decades grappling with economic stagnation, shown by the fact that productivity in the North East is almost 15% lower than the rest of the UK. Pressure on housing and public services has also played a part, with rents rising rapidly in the city. These dour economic statistics fuel the persistent feeling of being overlooked by Westminster.

It is in this soil that Reform has taken root. The party speaks plainly about the issues facing the city and the need to prioritise local residents. These are the concerns many voters feel Labour under Keir Starmer now instinctively softens or avoids. Where Labour increasingly sounds managerial, Reform offers directness and clarity.

Crucially, Reform’s appeal is not based on conventional free-market conservatism that many have associated with the Right for years. Instead, it is reclaiming communitarian instincts that once formed part of Labour’s traditional working-class base. What has changed is that these instincts are now being reorganised around nation, belonging, and cultural trust rather than class alone. In post-industrial Newcastle, that message has proven potent.

At the same time, the Greens have consolidated a younger, more ideological, student and graduate-led vote, driven increasingly by activist politics. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have entrenched themselves across the city’s more affluent and professional suburbs, presenting themselves as the stable, managerial alternative to both Labour and populism.

It was not too long ago that Labour held together this broad urban coalition: working-class voters, ethnic minorities, students, public-sector professionals, and progressive graduates. But now those groups are being pulled apart. Reform is emerging as the sharpest vehicle for working-class disillusionment, the Greens as the outlet for ideological activist politics, and the Liberal Democrats as the home of affluent managerial liberalism.

This fragmentation shows that Labour’s old balancing act is no longer sustainable. Trying to appease progressive urban graduates alienates parts of the working-class base, while attempts to reconnect with socially conservative voters risk driving younger activists and professionals elsewhere.

If Labour can no longer hold together a city as historically loyal as Newcastle, then the political settlement that sustained the party across urban Britain for decades may finally be breaking down. In this sense, Newcastle may be a bellwether for Labour’s decline; a broader message that the old unities that held certain political parties together are atomising.