A popular narrative on both the Left and the Right is that the rise of the Green Party reflects young Britons’ struggles to buy a house and manage the cost of living. But this phenomenon is explained less by rent than it is by progressive social views.

In the wake of the Greens’ victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election last month, a YouGov poll showed the party in second place nationally, with 21% support. The age dynamics were especially striking: the Green Party was the top choice of those under 50, with nearly half of those aged 18-24 saying they would vote for Zack Polanski’s party. In the youngest age category, only 10% said they’d vote for either Reform UK or the Tories.

Are the young flocking to Polanski because they are struggling economically, or because they are drawn to his outwardly “kind politics”? To find out which theory is correct, I conducted a survey of nearly 400 British voters on the Prolific survey platform last week. Of this sample, 61% voted Labour or Green in 2024. Excluding non-voters, 42% of under-35s said they would vote for Polanski.

Age is by far the strongest demographic predictor of a Green vote: 46% of those aged 25 and under support Polanski compared to 5% of those over-55s. The young female effect is also noticeable. Among respondents aged 18-25, the female-to-male advantage for Polanski is 56-30, while it is 44-25 for the 26-35 group and 27-15 for the 36-45 group. By contrast, there is no Green gender gap among over-45s.

Green voters are more likely than Labour supporters to say that house prices should be lower, and that young people now have worse opportunities to buy a property than was true for past generations. However, these are beliefs shared by voters of all stripes. The dark green bars in the chart below show that among under-35s, there is only a modest difference (32%, 27% and 30%) in the share of Green, Labour and Reform voters who picked housing as a top-three issue from a list of 13.

All voters care about housing, but Green voters care more about trans rights than others

Support for trans women in sports vs housing as a top-three issue among under-35s

By contrast, when asked whether trans women (those born male who identify as women) should be permitted to enter women’s sporting competitions, 60% of younger Green voters agreed, in line with Polanski’s views. This compares with just 25% of Labour voters, 8% of Tory voters and 2% of Reform voters the same age. Evidently, the Green Party stands out far more on cultural issues than on housing.

More generally, income, marital status and employment status do not predict a Green vote. Views on whether housing is too expensive, whether young people are disadvantaged in obtaining a house compared to previous generations, and the importance of the cost of living do not distinguish Green voters from Labour supporters when controlling for other factors.

What picks out a Green voter? A statistical model that focuses on who 2024 left party voters are intending to vote for in the future shows that Polanski is attracting far-Left and younger voters from other Left-wing parties. This is unsurprising inasmuch as younger voters have weaker party loyalties and are more likely to be drawn to new parties and leaders.

Those who care less about the state of the economy or immigration, think disability benefits criteria are too strict, and that Net Zero is important are more likely to vote Green than Labour or Lib Dem. Bisexual and homosexual respondents are more strongly Green than heterosexuals. The model paints a picture of a party whose supporters are defined by bleeding heart humanitarianism, not material struggle.

The chart below, generated from the statistical model, shows that young voters who identify with the left are far more likely to vote Green than older left-wing voters. This is likely because young Leftists have a more identitarian and less materialistic socialism than their elders. They are less attached to the Labour Party and more willing to switch.

Younger Left-wing voters are more likely to vote for the Greens than older counterparts

Age and ideology are key predictors of Green Party voting intention

These results suggest two things. First, the Green Party poses no real threat to Reform. Second, Polanski and his voters are vulnerable to the charge of being Pollyannaish on the economy, immigration and benefits reform. Labour’s wisest strategy may be to market itself as the best hope for the “responsible” centre against an extreme Left, the irrelevant Lib Dems and the hapless Tories.

Third, Britain’s “Generation Woke” is beginning to flex its electoral muscles. Polanski cannot win a majority in Britain in 2026, but a figure like him could feasibly prevail in 2036 or 2046. Unless parties of the centre and Right find a way to counter the powerful emotive narratives which frame the worldview of emerging cohorts, generational turnover will continue to power the Green rise.

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Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at the University of Buckingham and author of Taboo: How Making Race Sacred Led to a Cultural Revolution (Forum Press, 4 July).

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