12 August 2026 - 10:00am
Wisconsin Democrat Francesca Hong should have run away with her party’s nomination for governor on Tuesday. Every major poll taken since July found her up by double digits, according to RealClearPolitics. A PPP poll commissioned by her opponent David Crowley just last week found Hong up by 18 points. Yet in the early hours of Wednesday it was Crowley who emerged as the unexpected victor. Hong’s failure will be a source of embarrassment for the polling industry, as well as a major setback for the Democratic Socialists of America.
Last week, the DSA-aligned Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens by one point in the Michigan Senate primary, despite previously leading by more than 10 points according to the RCP average. In neighbouring Wisconsin, DSA member Hong experienced a more ignominious fate, even as Leftist Peggy Flanagan won her Senate primary easily across the Minnesota border.
Pollster Nate Silver explained the dramatic polling failure by arguing that “multi-way races are hard because voters are actually quite rational and tactical, so when a multi-way race becomes a de facto 2-way race, things can shift extremely quickly.” This doesn’t exactly explain the miss in Michigan, where El-Sayed and Stevens were the clear frontrunners in the days leading up to the election. It makes more sense in Wisconsin, since Crowley didn’t emerge as Hong’s clear-cut rival until recently.
In mid-July, Republicans poured millions of dollars into an ad campaign intended to boost Hong in the Democratic primary, referring to her as “too liberal for Wisconsin” and hoping it would help make the general election easier on Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany. Hong’s surge, if polls are to be believed, started around the same time. As late as election day, conservative outlets were still finding old social media posts of hers, including one in which she invited followers to a “6course dinner inspired by menstruation”.
Lest we forget, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “Woke One was crazy” line actually came in response to a question about Hong, who’d trashed Thanksgiving, called for defunding the police, and lamented her “proximity to whiteness” — by which she meant having a half-white son. Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders struggled to answer questions about Hong, and declined to endorse her. But Republicans decided to play a dangerous game by spending millions on her behalf.
Andrew Cuomo thought little of Zohran Mamdani until it was too late. Even after losing a primary to the insurgent candidate in New York City, the former state governor seemed to underestimate his appeal. Fast forward a year, and Democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot, Donald Trump is less popular, and gas prices are intolerably high. A Leftist candidate who’s able to successfully overcome “Woke One” by leading with affordability could win critical races. After all his controversies, Graham Platner won his primary comfortably and remained competitive with longtime GOP incumbent Susan Collins until he dropped out amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Just 10 years ago, it would have been unthinkable for Democrats with the politics of El-Sayed and Hong even to come close to winning these primaries in the upper Midwest. Wisconsin has a history of Sewer Socialism, but that’s exactly the case Hong struggled to make. After casting her ballot, she quipped that “when people ask about my style of progressive politics, I always start with the three Ps: fixing potholes, fully funding our public schools, and our community-owned Green Bay Packers.” That’s a nod to Sewer Socialism. Lead with material victories, and don’t bother overcomplicating it.
The problem is that voters care about the police, and they care about Thanksgiving. If a candidate doesn’t pass the basic smell test of normality, it’s harder to talk about fixing potholes. This is where Hong fell short.
