Yesterday, the Mexican military carried out one of its most important operations in the war on cartels by killing a prominent cartel boss. Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera was the leader of one of the country’s most violent criminal organisations, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). Widely seen as the Mexican government’s response to the Trump administration’s pressure to dismantle drug cartels, the operation could make or break Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency.

Security forces captured Oseguera during a raid on his compound in the mountain town of Tapalpa, to the south of Guadalajara. Shortly after the operation, he succumbed to his injuries while being airlifted to Mexico City. Mexican authorities credited the National Guard’s Immediate Reaction Force with carrying out the raid. But they also acknowledged “bilateral cooperation” with US agencies for providing “complementary information”. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has confirmed US intelligence support for the operation.

Oseguera’s arrest sparked waves of violent responses — what are commonly referred to as narcobloqueos — across the country on Sunday. Cartel members commandeered and torched vehicles to impede the authorities and sow terror among the population, while even a local Costco store was targeted.

The CJNG controlled and contested territories across the country, trafficking vast amounts of cocaine to the United States and developing a reputation for savage violence. It has corrupted public officials, too. The Mayor of Tequila was arrested on charges of extorting distillers and accused of having CJNG ties. Former interior minister Adán Augusto López was named in military intelligence documents for allegedly handing over control of the state police to a commander belonging to a criminal group with ties to the CJNG.

The violence is unlikely to abate, but security coordination between the United States and Mexico has intensified. Donald Trump has consistently pressured Mexico to stamp out fentanyl production and curb drug cartel excesses under the threat of intervening militarily south of the border. In response, Mexican authorities have stepped up joint intelligence-sharing, extraditions, and targeted operations against high-value cartel figures, keen to demonstrate that they retain sovereign control over the fight.

The weekend’s events also come ahead of the July review of the USMCA trade deal. Mexico sends more than 80% of its exports to the United States, leaving its economy deeply exposed to political crosswinds in Washington. The agreement’s durability now hinges less on tariff schedules than on Mexico’s performance on migration — which has collapsed at the northern border — and on its willingness to align with US security priorities.

Still, there has been an inherent problem with cooperating too closely with the US. Sheinbaum continues to speak in nationalistic bromides, such as “Mexico isn’t a colony,” while quietly acquiescing to Trump’s demands. Rather than confront him rhetorically, she has opted for calibrated concessions: extraditing nearly 100 alleged cartel figures to face prosecution in US courts, permitting expanded US drone surveillance over Mexican territory, and intensifying domestic interdiction efforts. In addition, she has scrapped the “hugs, not bullets” strategy, which led various presidents before her to try to alleviate poverty in order to combat violence in the country.

The strategy reflects both a pragmatic recognition of Mexico’s economic dependence on its northern neighbour and a political calculation that managing Trump — rather than resisting him — is essential to preserving room for manoeuvre at home.

Killing Oseguera was one more step toward pacifying the United States, albeit a big one. It’s more politically palatable for Sheinbaum to target big cartel bosses than arrest politicians with drug cartel ties. But American leaders want action across the structure of society, not just the cartel leaders. The question remains, then: how long can Sheinbaum stave off US pressure to go after the political class, rather than capos like El Mencho?