October 16, 2023 - 7:30am
On Sunday night, Poland’s opposition pulled off what might be the biggest electoral upset in the country’s post-communist history. Although the first exit polls following Poland’s parliamentary elections on October 15 showed that the ruling Right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) had gained the largest share of seats in Parliament, the leader of Poland’s largest opposition party Donald Tusk claimed that he “ha[d] never in [his] life felt so happy with second place.”
Despite each trailing PiS individually, Tusk’s Civic Coalition party and three other allied Polish opposition parties together appear to have won a clear majority, and left PiS without the viable means to form a majority government. Official results are yet to be announced, but if these indicative results hold, the opposition will have set the stage for Poland to capitalise on its newfound importance in Europe and take the helm as a transformational leader within the EU — a paradigm shift that will likely cement an eastward drift in the continent’s centre of gravity that has been crystallising ever since the start of the war in Ukraine.
During eight years of PiS rule in Poland, the country became a poster child of European illiberalism alongside Hungary, championing strong-arm, nationalistic populism while fighting frequent battles with EU leadership over the rule of law and other issues. When PiS’s Poland emerged as the vanguard of Europe’s collective defence in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its new status made it a force to be reckoned with on the world stage — but nevertheless, PiS remained unable to break through the wall it had built between itself and Brussels and to steer the European ship from the inside.
Now, all of this may change. Having recently served as the President of the European Council following a previous tenure as Poland’s Prime Minister, Tusk will likely eventually become PM once again — and this time, he will bring with him ample connections and influence in Europe’s halls of power that may well upgrade Poland from a charismatic disruptor to a critical decision-maker.
But despite PiS’s campaign rhetoric, an opposition-led government will hardly turn Poland into a carbon copy of Germany or France. While the opposition will certainly move Poland closer to the European mainstream, it may well continue to carve out its own path — the opposition has pledged to continue the modernisation of Poland’s military, and Civic Coalition has even suggested it may continue to fight for World War II reparations from Germany, a pre-election PiS demand.
Perhaps most consequentially, the opposition’s victory will also be cause for great relief in Ukraine. Although PiS made a name for itself as a staunch supporter of Ukraine’s war effort early on in the war, its recent spat with Kyiv over grain shipments and questions about the future of benefit programmes for Ukrainian refugees in Poland have shaken Ukraine’s once unwavering faith in its Polish ally.
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SubscribeIf PiS was such a threat to democracy, how come they have just… lost an election?
Perhaps because people began to realise that they would be a threat to democracy if allowed to continue. They certainly seem to have a rather shaky grasp of what an independent media and judiciary means. The fact that they suddenly pivoted away from support for Ukraine simply to mop up more votes just indicates how unprincipled are were. Fortunately it didn’t work. Their defeat is one of the few positive signs at the moment.
This result appears to be a recipe for chaos and Poland’s electorate will probably be called again to vote when the coalition collapses, if they are able to form it?
Well at the very least we can say that Poland is an energetic democracy, with very different political visions on offer, unlike the UK.
The visions are on offer – just not in the most powerful centre – party(ies).
That’s because they have a proper democracy- proportional representation- unlike the UK.
Poles of all stripes are vehemently against immigration from outside Europe, and don’t want to accept their “allocation” from the EU. Tusk wants to get his hands on the EU Covid money, withheld because of the EU rule of law complaints about PiS. How these contradictions are to be reconciled remains unclear.
I’m vehemently against most immigration from outside Europe, that’s why I voted remain.
It’s depressing to see this odious creature keep floating to the top…
My hero. Best news I’ve heard recently.
“a paradigm shift that will likely cement an eastward drift in the continent’s centre of gravity that has been crystallising ever since the start of the war in Ukraine.”
It was Brexit that sparked this eastward shift off, not the war in Ukraine. Not a comment on Brexit itself.
Yep v cheering news.
Tusk apparently gets on v well with Starmer. That’ll be of double cheer to many of the Unherd commentariat regulars. Happy days.
“Tusk apparently gets on v well with
StarmerBlair.”There – fixed it for you.
Corbyn used to get on v well with Starmer too. He can be a great friend when he wants to be.
Perhaps Starmer.could lead a band: Fairweather and the Flip Flops
Bit like the Tory party
At least one Unherd reader wholeheartedly agrees!