June 3, 2020 - 2:26pm
Did you know that 33% of Americans believe that there’s a government conspiracy to cover up the North Dakota crash?
This is especially surprising because there was no North Dakota crash. Scientists used it as a control question in a survey about conspiracy theories, to see how many people reflexively answered “yes” to questions about whether there’s a government conspiracy to cover something up. Here’s Scott Alexander’s take on that and what it means for things like the finding that 46% of Trump voters endorse the Pizzagate conspiracy theory.
But the point is: polling is difficult. Getting good, random samples is hard. People interpret poll questions in different ways. Some people misunderstand things or deliberately answer falsely to annoy people or are just strange (for instance, to return to Alexander: 4% of Americans surveyed said that lizardmen control the earth).
I mention this because a poll came out on Wednesday saying that 21% of Britons are following lockdown rules less strictly. Those who said they have been were asked why, and a third of them cited Dominic Cummings’s Durham excursion as a reason.
That sounds pretty bad. But I wanted to note a couple of reasons to be cautious.
First, I don’t think this lets us put much weight on the “Cummings has destroyed lockdown” hypothesis. One-third of 21% is 7%. That’s not far off the number of people who think lizards control America. We’re not talking about an army of people driving off to Barnard Castle to test their eyesight.
Second, it’s quite a complicated question to get at. After all, lockdown rules have actually become less strict. The fieldwork for this poll was done last Thursday, before the most recent latest raft of relaxations, but by then we were allowed to go and meet one friend outside and exercise outside as much as we liked — and Monday’s measures had already been announced, so people may have been preempting them.
So people will have understood the question as “Are you following the new rules less strictly than you followed the old rules?”, but others may have heard “Are you following the new rules, which are less strict than the old rules?” Chris Curtis of YouGov, who carried out the poll, agreed that this might explain some of the response.
People do seem to be going out more — the poll also asks people whether they’ve gone out and whether they plan to, and the responses are compared to earlier polls carried out on 14 May and 18 May. Since 14 May was another Thursday, that seems the fairest comparison, and the percentage who went out the day before went up from 63 to 67; people who went out for more than two hours went up from 17 to 24. But that doesn’t strike me as a huge change, especially since the rules had been relaxed.
Another interesting point is that 90% reported that they think other people are either not taking the crisis seriously enough, or are taking it appropriately seriously. Only 7% say they think others are taking it too seriously. Again, that doesn’t say to me “lockdown is collapsing”, although it does rather suggest that people are getting the impression that it’s collapsing.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeNo Cummings didn’t cause the lockdown breakdown directly. Cummings is the fly in the ointment for those trying to extend the Brexit transition period.
It would appear likely that he stamped on a plan to push for an extension while the PM was in hospital so a private members bill was tabled to do just this and the media have been orchestrated to stir it up and divert attention a few days before the first reading. The second reading is a week Friday and it is ramping up again with accusations over the validity of the planning on the cottage he stayed in no doubt it will be the headline topic next week to divert the goings on in parliament. Only 7% cited Cummings action as motivation the other 93% are just stir crazy and looking for something to do while the shops are shut.
Cummings gets things done and his attempts to rid No10 and Whitehall of it’s torpor has trodden on a lot of toes at high levels.
Thank goodness you were paying attention to the real issue!
I for one am still in a state of catatonic shock over this C19 fiasco, and was not, (inexcusably) aware of these shenanigans !
Thank you.
The quickly deleted ‘Truth twisters’ tweet from the Civil Service was very revealing. At least one of the permanent members of Government is panicking.
The Press appeared eager to entrap DC whilst they in turn flaunted their willingness too breach lock down and also to breach separation rules whilst appearing to threaten the family of someone working at No10.
I wonder how many of the 7% who cited Cummings as a reason thought “choosing the Dom Cummings option helps to justify what I did and also embarrasses the government, what’s not to like?”. This is the sort of polling question where no sensible person would believe the answers – I’m only surprised the 7% figure is not higher.
Nonsense … let’s start with Durdle Door, move on to Hyde Park,Bournemouth, Southsea and Clacton, stopping at Brighton on the way; don’t try to tell me that the moronic cohorts of society are obeying the government’s requests. Admittedly it would be good if these ‘requests’ were a lot clearer but we are talking of morons.
are we talking about the moronic masses, the moronic government or the even more moronic opposition? There seems to be quite a bit to chose from.
You say there was no Dakota Crash. Well, who did I see supporting Half Man, Half Biscuit at Dingwall’s then, eh?
Dave – get yer hedge cut…………
I think you’ve missed the point. The question should be ‘Did Dominic Cummings _intend_ to cause a lockdown breakdown?’ Did he deliberately release information about a road trip which took place a whole two months before anyone thought to make a fuss about it, and, if so, did he do so in order to use public anger against itself, at a time when teachers were refusing to go back to school and other workers were refusing to leave the house?
Did he, in other words, turn ‘I’m not going back to work, to spite Boris’ into ‘I’m jolly well going back to work, to spite Cummings’?
An interesting article and more generally a timely reminder not to take poll results at face value, but to look carefully at the questions and just as importantly the number of people questioned and the analysis of the data. In regard to the Cummings issue specifically, despite the efforts of the media to keep it going, I predict it will be forgotten and seen as irrelevant within 6 months, let alone by the next election.
The Poll was by yougov too, a left-ish organisation.
It doesn’t matter anymore, the damage was done.
Another interesting point is that 90% reported that they think other people are either not taking the crisis seriously enough, or are taking it appropriately seriously. Only 7% say they think others are taking it too seriously. Again, that doesn’t say to me “lockdown is collapsing”, although it does rather suggest that people are getting the impression that it’s collapsing.
I wonder, where would they get that impression…let me think….oh yes, the media.
Surprisingly 60% believe conspiracy theories in the UK
https://www.theguardian.com…
I’m not one as I have problems in believing – perhaps because of a long
science/engineering background. Having aphantasia probably helps my
lack of belief, but has the advantage I can never suffer from PTSD
Conspiracy theories are pure BS as far as I’m concerned..
I don’t care what Cummings does and it won’t affect what I do. The rules are hardly logical anyway, but that’s politics. I could drive my car 100
miles and that won’t affect my catching Covid as it’s people that
carry Covid not cars. Years ago I used to go fishing which is not
only outside but marked by a distinct lack of other people. Banning
individual fishing made no sense.
Politics and scienceat at opposite poles of the spectrum. BS gets you nowhere in science, but is very useful in politics
Old Domo may not be the sharpest tool in the box of life but the desperate attempts of the press to keep the issue front and centre (thankfully waning) are a joke. Down here in the SW most people took not a blind bit of notice of the lock down rules/guidance/good idea etc. D and C’s finest were only interested when the sun shone and they could use ANPR on the M5 southbound.
Revenge of the Remainers has yet to be sated.