This week marks one year since Donald Trump returned to the presidency. It also brought miserable news about how far his popularity has fallen in that time.

Trump’s approval has taken a sharp hit since the start of his second term. Early goodwill has evaporated, and frustration is mounting over his handling of key issues such as the economy, inflation, and tariffs. Many voters also feel he has focused on the wrong priorities, while neglecting everyday concerns such as the rising cost of living. In a CBS poll, majorities said he has spent too much time focused on issues including deportations, events overseas, and imposing tariffs on other countries. Meanwhile, just under three-quarters (74%) think he has not paid enough attention to “lowering the prices of goods and services”.

Perhaps the most notable point is that the decline in Trump’s approval includes some of the voters who supported him in his second term. New data from the New York Times shows how some voters who supported Trump in 2024 — particularly younger, non-white, and less consistent voters — now view him less favourably. Meanwhile, nearly half of Americans, including a majority of independents, feel the country is worse off than a year ago.

One might reasonably conclude that in the face of these figures, the opposition party would stand to benefit. However, it’s not yet clear that that is happening. According to a Wall Street Journal poll, even though Trump’s standing has declined, voters still trust Republicans in Congress more than Democrats to handle an array of important issues, including border security, immigration, and the economy. So even as voters have soured on Trump, Democrats have not benefitted from the backlash.

Immigration, in particular, may be an underrated reason why Democrats haven’t been able to capitalise. Although Trump’s approval concerning the issue has declined, it remains higher than on most others. Voters may largely disapprove of the tactics he has used to address illegal immigration, yet they are far more likely to support his overall goals. Overall, Republicans maintain a sizeable edge over Democrats on these issues, marking a major shift from this same point in the 2018 midterm cycle, when Team Blue had a big advantage. If immigration remains at the forefront of national politics this year, that may not work in Democrats’ favour.

Secondly, Republicans continue to hold an advantage in voter registrations, which is consistent with trends from over the past couple of years. As the New York Times’s Nate Cohn observed, “self-identified Democrats had outnumbered Republicans for decades before the G.O.P. edged ahead in 2024, and Republicans continue to lead by three points in today’s poll. It’s a lingering reminder that something like a political realignment — if still quite a bit less than that — really did happen during the Biden years.”

Finally, as Trump’s popularity has fallen, we might expect to see Democrats gaining ground in another metric: the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they want to see control Congress after the next election. Although the party holds a respectable enough margin to win back the House, it trails the generic ballot margin at the same point in the 2018 cycle. At present, Democrats’ lead is likely nowhere near large enough to win back the all-important Senate.

Why does all this matter? Because Democrats seem to believe they can ride anti-Trump outrage back to power. In truth, they may be mistaking their recent momentum — strong off-year election performance, small gains in the generic ballot, and backlash to Trump — as a sign that everything has been fixed. There is something tempting about changing one’s ways as little as possible and simply hoping to gain as your opponents implode. But it’s a risky bet to make.

To be sure, this animus toward Trump will likely help bring Democrats’ most reliable voters to the polls this November. It may even bring some of the voters they lost to him in 2024 back into the fold, too. Yet none of this guarantees that they are now positioned to win back the Senate — or build a winning coalition for a post-Trump world.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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