March 10, 2025 - 7:00am
Russia plainly holds the strategic initiative in its war with Ukraine. Its forces are advancing against Ukrainian positions in Russia’s Kursk province, while missile and drone attacks are escalating amid the Trump administration’s suspension of intelligence sharing with Kyiv. Vladimir Putin clearly believes that his American counterpart will force Ukraine into a highly concessionary peace deal.
Still, Ukraine’s position is not nearly as precarious as some suggest. Elon Musk, for example, claimed on Sunday that his “Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off”. The Polish foreign minister then criticised Musk’s post, noting that Poland pays $50 million for Ukraine’s use of Starlink. He said Poland would look for alternatives if Musk withdrew the satellite internet system.
“To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy,” Musk later added, “Starlink will never turn off its terminals”. “I am simply stating that, without Starlink, the Ukrainian lines would collapse, as the Russians can jam all other communications! We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining chip.”
Musk is right: Ukraine would suffer difficulties were the tech mogul to pull Starlink access. The satellite constellation provides Ukrainian headquarters, command post, and field units with real-time, encrypted internet and communications coverage. This is crucial in planning and effecting military operations. Still, while Starlink offers Ukraine the best solution for its military needs, it could quite quickly move to secure contracts with alternative satellite internet providers, preventing Ukrainian forces from “going dark”. Ultimately, Ukraine’s current situation is not nearly as catastrophically poor as Musk and others on the American Right suggest.
For one, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to prioritise supplies to his exhausted forces in Kursk even as they take significant casualties and expend a lot of munitions and equipment. Zelensky views Ukraine’s occupation of Kursk as a critical bargaining chip to employ at the negotiating table to secure reciprocal concessions over Ukrainian territory. Until Russian and North Korean forces are able to sever the Ukrainian supply lines into Kursk, they are highly unlikely to dislodge their enemies entirely. With a nearly 20km border-crossing area under Kyiv’s control, Putin does not have the near-term ability to strangle Ukrainian forces. Russian diversionary tactics such as this weekend’s special forces raid through a gas pipeline are designed primarily for propaganda purposes rather than strategic effect.
Moreover, Russian forces continue to take major casualties. Credible estimates suggest Russia has lost 150,000-200,000 soldiers since the start of the war. Many hundreds of thousands more have been wounded. These casualties have accrued only marginal territorial gains in Ukraine’s south and southeast. A key problem for Russian forces has been their consistent inability to effectively conduct and sustain high-intensity combined arms operations. Where they have attempted major advances they have invariably opened themselves to bloody Ukrainian counter attacks.
In turn, while a complete loss of US arms and intelligence support would effectively end Ukraine’s opportunity to conduct offensive actions, it would not fundamentally change Kyiv’s defensive strength. The British, French, Polish, Norwegian, Finnish, and Baltic states could pool increased intelligence resources as an alternative. It is equally important to note that arms and financial support for Ukraine is now being motivated by an unprecedented sense of urgency from the Europeans. Even assuming US withdrawal of all support, the current battlefield balance of power and Europe’s new emergency posture is likely to be sufficient to hold Russian advances in check.
That is a problem for Putin. The Russian economy is nowhere near as stable as the Kremlin likes to pretend. Trump himself hinted as much just this week. The most valuable human capital has either evacuated the country or been diverted to the military industrial complex from productive sectors that were already struggling prior to the the war. Russia’s loss of young men worsens an already very serious demographic crisis. And the Russian economy is dependent on heavy military spending that has drained already fragile government investment and private capital in the civilian sector.
Making matters worse, inflation is running at 10%, and Russia’s energy sector — the absolutely critical instrument of its export economy — is drained of necessary spare parts and export partners as a result of sanctions. If Trump introduces secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy partners, specifically India and China, the economy may crash quickly.
Ultimately, Musk’s power over Kyiv and Putin’s military potential are both overstated. While Ukraine is under pressure, its impending collapse is not as likely as some would presume.
Oh look, the spook mouthpiece says Ukraine is totally winning!
This “article” is literally pure propaganda, even the most pro Ukrainian sources have reported that the situation in Kursk is dire (where Ukraine has wasted some of it’s best troops and materiel for PR purposes), the Russian economy was Europe’s strongest last year (at least by GDP), and there are plenty of buyers for Russian exports (the EU literally paid more money to Russia last year, for resources it can’t get elsewhere, than they sent to Ukraine).
But the biggest insult to the readers intelligence must be the point on demographics. The author wants us to think that Russia, a nation of 140+ million inhabitants, will suffer such a catastrophic demographic collapse that Ukraine’s by now extremely well-publicized demographic and recruitment issues won’t matter at all – over 100k+ desertions (this is the number they’re willing to admit, who knows what the real number is) and 6-8 million people have fled Ukraine, which is about 15% of its pre war population (oh and a good chunk of those fled to Russia).
Propagandistic drivel like this only contributes to the further destruction and wasting of Ukrainian lives. Enough is enough and no amount of prancing around from Zelensky, virtue signaling from the ailing and failing Eurocrats (who are clinging onto this sinking ship because they’ve invested what little credibility they have left into this war) and the pro-war propagandists (“experts”), whose paychecks depend on the continuation of the war, will change that.
Oh look, here comes the contrarian to deny Russia has suffered anything at all from its invasion.
Also while spending vast amounts on shells and missiles will increase GDP temporarily, it isn’t feasible long term. Spending money just to blow something up in a field doesn’t mean an economy is doing well
Yes M Lux is a propagandist. You would think that after years of practice they might be a little less transparent. But no, they are as incompetent on the keyboard as they are on the battlefield.
Good job refuting my actual arguments. Go and fight then.
Yah, yah my daddy is bigger than your daddy. FFS grow up.
Yeah, those sanctions have been on the verge of crippling the Russian economy “any minute now” for over 2 years, but if only you believe a little bit harder Ukraine can definitely win!
What you call contrarianism is usually referred to as reality (unless you think people can change sex or some other nonsense).
I haven’t actually said what you’re claiming; the Russians have certainly been hurt by this war, it’s just that we are inflicting even more pain on the Ukrainians by pushing this further and Europe is destroying itself in the process – for absolutely no gain. The Russians can’t get past Ukraine, it’s laughable to claim they’re about to roll into Poland and Baltics (and if you believe that then go ahead and fight them in Ukraine, no point waiting).
Furthermore, if you think the Europeans can replace the Americans, then you are delusional. They don’t have the money (Britain and France are broke and the British army is a hollow shell, the German military is a joke, even if the debt brake is dropped), the weapons (neither the manufacturing base nor stockpiles) or the competence (this one is self explanatory to anyone paying attention) to match the Russians at this point in time, so really it’d be more humane to stop the war now before it gets even worse for Ukraine.
I’ve pointed out the reality of the situation as opposed to the massive scoop of cope & propaganda above, but you can keep deluding yourself (as you have been since the war started) that you are somehow making the moral argument, but the fact is (and always has been), that Ukraine boosters such as yourself have contributed to a war hysteria that has encouraged your politicians to make promises they would never be able to keep and now we all have to live with the ruined economies and human tragedy of this war. Zelensky is not Ukraine and the longer this goes on the worse it will be for everyone, but especially for ordinary Ukrainians. A stop to the war might mean some kind of integration into the west for western Ukraine, while a continuation can only end with the Russians taking even more land.
I have firsthand experience of war and it’s consequences, I grew up in one of the countries the west “saved”. I don’t live there anymore because it’s a terrible place to live and to watch people like you, with your armchair messiah complex, pretending you’re somehow helping the Ukrainians is incredibly hypocritical and disgusting.
Yes, right on all points.
Incidentally, in respect of Ukrainian refugees in other countries Polish and Romanian work colleagues aren’t best pleased at their presence eg “they all drive expensive cars and get things for free while some Romanians can’t afford to eat…”…a direct quote. My Polish colleagues have similar views.
Obviously I don’t know the truth of the matter but the “feeling” is clear.
I rather doubt the populations of Poland and Romania will fight for Ukraine but certainly will for their own countries.
Why do you feel the need to put words in my mouth, or argue against points I haven’t made?
That, along with the numerous buzz words that litter your reply, implies a lack of critical thinking on your part and suggests to me you’re merely parroting well worn phrases rather than actually taking the time to analyse the conflict.
My comment made no mention of Ukraine, Britain, Europe or (rather bizarrely) the trans debate, merely that the war has been incredibly damaging for Russia economically. You could pay a million people to build something, another million to smash them and repeat the cycle ad nauseam and you’d push up GDP which is the measure all those who support the Kremlin always use to portray the Russian economy as chugging along nicely, but it’s a poor measure of of a nations financial health
There is no getting away from the fact that the Ukrainians have killed lots of Russians (although I appreciate that opinions may vary as to precisely how many). That has to damage Russia economically. Also, the fact that the deaths have principally been of young men means that Putin will find it that much harder to launch his next invasion, thus buying time for Europe to rearm.
No idea if you are right that 6-8m people have fled Ukraine but, if so, then it is about 16% (not 8%)of their c43m 2020 population.
Thanks I’ve corrected it, I messed up my math because I had so much to say.
Those are the numbers that are generally claimed by most media outlets and the currently estimated population of Ukraine (if you google it) is 37,7 million.
The population of Donbass went down from 6.5 m to 3.5 m. Maybe 2 m of these fled to Russia.
The Ukraine War represents a major opportunity to cripple Russia, both militarily and economically, for a generation, and hopefully longer. That is not an opportunity to be passed up. Western Europe needs to “dig deep”, and help Ukraine to the greatest extent possible.
Don’t just babble on the sidelines, go and do your bit. Dig deep and put your money where your mouth is.
Weapons grade nonsense. Europe cannot fight a war, we need to cut our cloth accordingly, and start military build up immediately, including building back nationalism within our politics. I won’t hold my breath.
One can add to Putin’s inability to deliver effective offensive ops – it’s NCO cadre was decimated. ‘Go forward’ relies on tactical leadership they lack.
Lesson from History – may not apply but German forces in March/April 1918 went on a major offensive but the push essentially hastened their own end. In some regards Ukraine welcomes Russians getting out of their foxholes in greater numbers.
Putin knows a further conscription drive undermines him. That’s why he’s not done it and instead used criminals and N Koreans when he can. A major sign of weakness.
Putin’s primary card now is Don J helping him up and switching to his side. Without that he was toast and within the year his ability to maintain the war would collapse.
How long would you like this war to go on for. Will twenty years be sufficient? Or would you be happier with thirty? You’ve been telling us that the Russians are on the ropes for almost three years now. Yet somehow the war still goes on.
I would like it to go on for as long as the Ukrainian’s want support against a blatant aggressor. Just as I would fight tooth and nail against an invading force in the UK.
A majority of Ukrainians wanted it to end last November – 52% according to Gallup. I assume in future you’ll be posting that it should stop now?
Zelensky clinging onto power because he’s afraid of what’s waiting for him afterward isn’t the same as “Ukraine” wanting to fight indefinitely.
Just as I would fight tooth and nail against an invading force in the UK.
You’ll have to do that sooner than you think – but it won’t be the Russians.
As long as the Ukrainians decide HB. It’s their Country not ours. And as we aren’t losing anyone and they just want help with kit why wouldn’t we help someone who has been attacked?
I’ve always sensed you i) trust Putin too much ii) maybe even have some reason why you favour him you don’t declare iii) prefer capitulation and would turn a blind eye to any repeat Bucha’s.
Europe has spent more on Russian gas since 2022 than it has on defense of Ukraine. Spare us the moral lectures.
Far be it from me to join the lively debate above but Russia’s response to the ceasefire proposal will tell us who is right.