March 13, 2024 - 4:30pm
Boris is back. Sort of. The Times reports that the former prime minister will campaign for the Conservatives ahead of the next election, placing a particular emphasis on red wall seats. Alongside visiting marginal constituencies, Johnson will apparently make speeches and appear on campaign material.
Given the former Uxbridge MP was unceremoniously dumped by his own party, one might query his electoral appeal. After all, when Johnson left office in September 2022 almost 70% of voters thought he was performing badly. According to most polls, he is considered the second worst prime minister since 2010 — trumped only by the inimitable Liz Truss.
While Johnson arouses strong support among many of his 2019 voters, and while he remains more popular than Rishi Sunak, his rumoured enlistment speaks volumes about the Conservative operation. After all, the next general election will be a plebiscite on the last 14 years, during which time he served not only as prime minister, but also foreign secretary and Brexit hellraiser-in-chief. In a change election, Johnson can only speak with authenticity about the past — and accomplishments nobody really believes in.
Take migration. As his colleagues try to spike Labour on the last issue where they remain competitive, Keir Starmer can point to Johnson as the most liberal prime minister on migration in British history. In 2019, when Johnson won the Tory leadership, net migration was below 350,000, where it had consistently been for decades. By December 2021, however, that figure had risen above 450,000. A year later, shortly after Johnson exited Number 10, it had surged higher still to 745,000 people.
The fact is that the Conservative Party oversaw an influx of migrants unprecedented in postwar history. It’s a singular lesson on a cardinal rule in politics, and life: judge people by what they do, not what they say.
That Johnson will campaign alongside not only Sunak, but David Cameron too, underscores how his party is suffering from an identity crisis. The beauty of Johnson in 2019 was that the contradictions could be bridged, however briefly. Net Zero sympathisers and petrolheads could both back him. Civil libertarians and reactionary authoritarians each believed he was secretly one of their own. Big-state dirigistes and market Thatcherites could point to evidence that the PM was a true believer. All the binaries which plagued the Conservatives over previous decades, which ultimately did for both of Johnson’s predecessors, seemed to briefly evaporate.
But putting Johnson alongside Cameron offers the precise opposite. Rather than a maverick, the former would suddenly appear to be a company man. For it to work the freewheeling would have to go — and with Johnson the freewheeling is the point.
It has been suggested that Johnson could try a comeback, perhaps even before the next general election. After all, if Donald Trump can return to win the Republican nomination — and likely the White House if polls are to be believed — why are the chances of a Johnsonian resurrection so remote?
Finding a safe seat before the election remains technically plausible. All it would require is a sympathetic incumbent, or parliamentary candidate, to stand aside and for the local association to be amenable. Yet one of Johnson’s primary misgivings about high office was that it brought in too little cash. In a year when he plans to finish his political memoirs, present shows on GB News, and continue writing columns for the Daily Mail, it would be strange for him to suddenly rejoin the Westminster rat race.
The biggest barrier to Johnson returning to politics, however, is that he feels like a man out of time. Tory voters’ top priority is migration, an issue on which he has a record of extraordinary liberality. When the economy was at least stuttering along, a persona defined by media spectacle could thrive. But now even that isn’t true, with Britain’s GDP per capita falling for the best part of two years.
We occupy a fundamentally different moment even to a few years ago: where Johnson talked of largesse and levelling up, Jeremy Hunt will have to find as much as £20 billion worth of cuts. The costs of servicing British debt are now much higher than they were in 2022, interest rates are squeezing even affluent households, and disparate demands on the Exchequer — from councils to a growing university debt crisis — can’t be ignored. Beyond all that is the prospect of an ageing population, an increasingly unstable world — and with it the need for re-modelled alliances — and the fact that Britain hasn’t had a growth model for 16 years.
The Democratic strategist Paul Begala once joked that politics is show business for ugly people. But when a nation faces challenges such as these, things become more serious. There’s a reason the most boring man in the history of British politics stands on the cusp of a landslide. Boris Johnson is anything but boring — but he’s also not very serious.
Aaron Bastani is the co-founder of Novara Media, and the author of Fully Automated Luxury Communism.
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SubscribeI think many in the nation are willing to overlook the partygate stuff now they’ve seen how bad things in real life can get under a truly terrible leader. Same reason that most normal people don’t care about all the gender stuff now that the economy’s a bit sketchy.
There’s no doubt Johnson would have been just as terrible as Sunak over the same period but conservatism is based on romanticising the past and nostalgia as the base of reason.
Given that Keir Starmer knelt for BLM I am far from convinced that the identity stuff is of a lower priority. We are about to have an election between a globalist techbro and a BLM kneeler. Pardon my nostalgia.
When people ten years from now look back on “Partygate” and see that Boris Johnson was forced out for something like this and then compare it to all the far more serious things leaders in other countries didn’t get kicked out for, they’ll think we’d were mad.
Johnson deserved to be removed for something serious like creating an immigration policy the exact opposite of what he campaigned on. Not crucified for some relative triviality.
Especially when so many others (I’m looking at you media critics and Labour leaders) did the same or worse.
“conservatism is based on romanticising the past and nostalgia as the base of reason”.
Seriously ???
Leadership is a serious business. Example counts. Having parties whilst telling others they couldn’t doesn’t get anymore stark an example of poor judgment and leadership.
Re-read my comments about the context:
1) All his main critics were doing the same if not worse (Kate Burley, Keir Starmer, …). Have they also been punished ? If not, why not ?
2) Many of us bent lockdown rules out of sheer necessity – my son had some very particular needs that the NHS was unable to meet (due to – quite wrongly IMHO – dropping everything else to focus on Covid)
3) I’m prepared to cut the Downing Street staff just a little slack given the extraordinary pressure they were under at the time. It’s the sort of environment where people do need to occasionally let off steam and mistakes and oversights can happen. Do you seriously expect perfection under such cirumstances ? Really ???
4) On the whole, Boris Johnson’s leadership was – my view – pretty good during Covid. Not perfect. But who was ? But based on the information and options around at the time, I’d rate it around 7/10. Just an long as we never repeat some of the errors now we know better.
In a curious way, it’s a compliment to him when you expect perfection from someone like Boris Johnson, when you seem quite content to settle for rather less from others. And very odd when he’s not the one who ever pretended to be perfect (compare Starmer here).
I’m frankly sick of the sanctimonious hypocrisy of the Johnson critics here who are simply weaponising some fairly minor shortcomings for political gain.
Wheeling out Johnson will be a sign of total desperation after they discarded him, and will do them no good.
And why would Johnson want to help them, after stabbing him in the back. There’s nothing in it for him, and Johnson will always want something in return.
The operative word is ‘help’. Can BJ help any party? I suspect he approached Reform but was rejected. He is damaged goods.
One of the (many) differences between Trump and BoJo is Trump has, however imperfectly, given his supporters good reasons to remain loyal to him. BoJo is a liberal who has managed to convince other liberals he is a fascist, while he hasn’t done a lot to give conservatives a feeling to stay loyal to him, mass immigration being the worst sin of the lot.
Anyone who has been convinced Boris is a fascist is beyond help.
When Bozo won in 2019 he was assisted by an Establishment wide smearing of his opponent – which included a fifth column within the opposition party itself. Whoever campaigns for the Tories won’t have that luxury – the luxury that allowed Bozo to hide in a fridge and get away with it. I know of no one who was surprised when his rule turned out to be the farce it has been. He’s got the deaths of a few hundred thousand Ukrainians on his hands too by the way Aaron. Anyone who pretends to be of the left as y0u do really should have placed this front and centre in any discussion of the ghoul.
The Ukrainian deaths – and Russian deaths – are down to one man and one man alone – Putin. Just stop this cretinous nonsense.
Nothing to do with NATO expansion then, crossing every red line that Russia had clearly communicated over the last 15 years, or scuppering a peace deal that Zelensky was prepared to accept in April 2020.
No, ‘Putin is Hitler’ is the only narrative in town.
The point about Johnson is that he understands what voters want. And on Brexit he delivered.
Then Covid knocked him off balance and a vindictive media went for him.
He knew what voters want? A massive increase in net migration then.
This is the problem. Folks don’t think about the gap between rhetoric and reality when it comes to likes of Bojo. Intoxication makes folks myopic
I think he would have realised that immigration was far too high if he’d been allowed to continue. And he had the ability to get things done in the face of bureaucratic opposition.
Disagree. He had a track record of lying and muddled thinking on difficult choices. He’d have blathered about it whilst not stopping the requests for Visa’s because the decisions required to manage the implications of a cessation of those Visa’s he’d have ducked.
Johnson has no track record of standing and fighting of prepared to go down figthing, only cutting and running. Johnson is certainly no Leonides at Thermopylae. He is like a Golden Retriever who wants his tummy rubbed.
L Cheshire VC in his interview by the RAF said when Churchill became Prime Minister and Harris C in C Bomber Command there was a change; an increase in urgency and purpose; a willingness to go on figthing, an ability to see through to the end.
9min and 17:25 min
RAF CASPS Historic Interview | Group Captain Leonard Cheshire (youtube.com)
Leaders can take demoralised organisations and turn them around by inspiring people to achieve what previously they thought impossible; in extreme cases, to live when people have lost the will to live. Shackleton and T E Lawrence are examples where leaders have inspired people to survive when they have lost the will to live. The Greeks calle this Charismos, the power givn by the gods for a divine purpose.
It is difficult to think of any leader in The West to have these qualities since Churchill, perhaps Golda Meir in 1973.
Although it obviously doesn’t compare with a war, I think Johnson showed similar qualities of leadership in getting Brexit done.
He never risked his life on 100 missions but he was given a very weak hand by T May. Johnson made things worse by being unprofessional. Cheshire states that leadership requires the highest level professionalism which meant knowing the inside of a plane blind folded and rigorous training.
I’ve never understood how a man who was the epitome of the globalist metropolitan upper class liberal for 20 years, in the public eye, suddenly managed to convince everyone he was a conservative.
If any falls for it again they deserve everything they get.
Yep, and it was because he rode the Brexit bandwagon cynically and manipulatively. Was made v clear but many folks weren’t for listening were they.
Yes, they were listening. And they knew full well what they were getting. But they chose Johnson anyway. Just as with Trump, if the choice is “bad vs worse”, people naturally tend to prefer “bad”.
Stop slagging off Johnson. It’s getting tiresome. The solution here is for you guys to pull your finger out and do a better job. Do you blame the opposition when you team loses at football ?
He’s the most left-wing Tory PM since McMillan. Which is not a very complicated idea. Conservative?
The fact the Right ever went for this charlatan says it all. You were repeatedly warned but fell willingly for the bluster. Ok so Corbyn helped and part-excuse but the Tories had other options and instead chose the Clown.
The broader problem is not only was Bojo not serious about our many deep seated problems most of the Right aren’t either.
It wasn’t “the right” that went for Johnson though, was it ? All those Red Wall seats he won were hardly “right”.
You keep insisting the voters are stupid. Check out how that worked out for Hillary Clinton.
Bojo was initially voted in as PM by the Tory party membership after Tory MPs chose the one’s to go before the membership. Are you suggesting they are all lefties? Or maybe they are one’s who were stupid?
You have the sequencing wrong in your memory.
I’m talking about the real voters in the 2019 general election. I took your “you were warned” to be talking about the public – I’m not a member of any political party and suspect most here are not either.
So I’ll repeat the question – do you believe the Red Wall voters who switched were mainly “right” ? It’ll be news to most of them if so.
The Boris Johnson who wrote so convincingly for many years on the pages of the Telegraph and Spectator, of an optimistic, Conservative vision for Britain, disappeared when he became PM and, even with an 80 seat majority, failed to govern as a Tory. Why would anyone, let alone those in the Red Wall, want to repeat that mistake?
The greatest missed opportunity (among SO MANY) of Boris Johnson’s time in No 10 was that Dominic Cummings was not able to achieve his goal of weeding out the Blairite obstructionists who infest the upper echelons of the Civil Service. But as much as you can try and blame the lack of co-operation from the Civil Servants for hobbling the Boris agenda, if the party in Govt had confidence in its people and policies, they could have over-ruled them and lived up to the promises that saw them elected. Their larger than expected majority came courtesy of the Red Wall voters, constituencies that had never voted Conservative before, and likely won’t again.
Quite a lot of the present trouble stems from the fact that many within CCHQ look at unflattering press reports and dismal polling numbers and draw ENTIRELY the wrong conclusions from them.
They seem to imagine that if Labour is so much more popular, then the Conservatives should try and be more like Labour. But what is the real reason that the Conservative party is being deserted by longtime Tory supporters, and first-time Red Wall voters?
I would suggest that it is because Tory voters have been dismayed – and feel betrayed – by the Conservative party simply not being Conservative. The electorate keeps voting Blue in the hope of a Tory Govt, but instead get Labour-Lite, Diet-Liberal, Woke-Zero, I Can’t Believe It’s Not Dawn Butler.
If voters desert the party it is not because they no longer want Conservative policies, it is because they do want them, ….. but are being forced to look to other parties to deliver them.
Boris no longer has the cut-through appeal he had when we still thought he was an actual Conservative.
In short, BoJo lost his mojo.
Anyone who pondered for a nanosecond how he governed when Major of London, what he said and did, would have grasped instantly this was not the man you hoped he would be. But you allowed yourselves to be intoxicated. Stop blaming him and reflect on your own roles in his rise.
I was never starry-eyed about Boris, and knew from the very start that he was always totally self-interested, but for all that, I must admit I had hopes for him as PM, not as a leader so much as a figurehead.
I’ll try and explain: Boris, as a Tory, managed to get the predominantly metro-left-leaning London to vote him in as Mayor, twice. He was successful as Mayor of London because he delegated responsibilities to good people on his staff, whilst he acted as London’s irrepressible “Ambassador of Fun” to the rest of the world. He was the colourful character around whom a broad-church approach could coalesce, whilst the more boring, prosaic functions were carried out by less colourful, more serious people. He had genuine cross-party cut-through, like no other politician of my lifetime.
It was my hope that once the rancour of Brexit died down, with his popular appeal, a good cabinet and a newly functioning civil service around him (if Cummings had been allowed to weed out the obstructionists) Boris might be PM for at least 2 or 3 Parliaments. His energy and optimism would be a great advertisement for the country whilst far more diligent backroom people would ensure that a post-Brexit, global-facing Britain would thrive.
No doubt the Johnson family psychodrama played its part in shaping Boris but, like his hero Churchill, he was driven by more than mere ambition – it was his destiny, or so he believed.
Churchill, for all his manifest personal faults proved to be a man of genuine substance, England’s hero, alongside Nelson, his name will never be forgotten.
Boris, regrettably, has proved to be a man of very little substance. Having reached Downing St, he had achieved his “destiny” and, like the dog who chases the car, he didn’t seem to know what to do with it once he’d got it. He squandered nearly all the good will that he’d built up over years in the public’s imagination. His political instincts seemed to desert him – certainly any Conservative instincts – and he appeared fully in thrall to his wife’s green agenda. He was elected on the back of his promises over Brexit – yet almost all those promises are thus far unmet.
To be politically neutered by scandals as trivial as Partygate was the final disappointment for a PM who promised much, had the manoeuvring room of an 80 seat majority to effect real and radical change, yet achieved so very little.
Much I agree with here PT. He was a unique politician with unique skills. In these regards he’s a loss. But his personal ambition meant he deserted what he really believed in order to secure the Premiership. That was then always going to unravel, and coupled with his lack of seriousness, meant an ignominious downfall inevitable and predicted
Maybe when he came under the intense scrutiny of being PM, he fall apart. After all, when he was London Mayor, most people don’t care about that, especially if you don’t live in London.
I try not to be a mysogynist but to me Boris’s thinking brain was not in his head. His Wife Carrie ruled the roost in Downing Street. It was she who got Cummings sacked and brought in her own team to run No10 that created the chaos that followed. It only stopped when Lord Frost stepped in and banished her. In Saturday’s Daily Mail we had the delights of Boris talking about a Robot mower and that sums him up. Fortunately on the next page was Andrew Neil who is a man of intellect.
I tend to agree. Boris could be superficially likeable but was a completely dilletante-ish Mayor, wasting money left right and centre on a hugely expensive “New Bus for London” (not purchased by anyone else), the ludicrous unnecessary Garden Bridge ( a new bridge certainly needed but not between Hungerford and Waterloo bridges! Etc etc.
As a left whinger who despairs of Labour’s apparent determination to replicate the entire suite of failed conservative policies, I find myself perplexed by comments like this.
What are the true (and wildly popular) Conservative policies which would have been such a triumph if only they had not been smothered in their crib by obstructionists in the civil service.
What avowedly Conservative policies do you think Johnson was proposing in 2019 (I remember only an oven-ready Brexit deal and a stack of new hospitals)?
What policies do you think the Tories shold adopt now (if only they could see off the blob)?
They could have started by not raising taxes so much. That’s not very conservative. They could have refined the Equality Act to clarify the gender issue. They could stop worrying about what people think who are never vote for them in a million years.
That would be a start.
…they aren’t worried about who votes for them…just terrified their kids Tarquin and Jacinta will leave home and join Hamas, and their neighbours Giles and Fiona will cut them at Waitrose, and drop them from the “kitchen supper” rota…
From way over here in the USA I would think the no.1 would be to stave off wave after wave of people set to displace you. Everything else is secondary.’
Reducing immigration to manageable levels – or a decent plan to do so, supported by the public of all races – would be a good start.
I suppose you would like to replicate the entire suite of failed socialist policies instead!
…leaving the ECHR, and actually stopping irregular migration? Shutting down every manifestation of the “woke” state overnight? Creating an iron wall between what Government does with our taxes and what Charity does with money we personally choose to give it? Restoring the “contributory” principle for social benefits? Increasing defence expenditure by ten-percent per annum for a decade? Reconstructing post-16 Education so a much smaller number of clever people who can benefit take a degree (with some support) but most leave school and go to work? building Northern Powerhouse Rail, starting in places like Hull and Fleetwood? Obliterating Nimbyism “for the public good” as required? Making people serve short prison sentences in mobile work-camps tidying up and replanting railway, motorway and derelict land…in small groups, under strict discipline? Re-introducing the Riot Act to be declared by the Home Secretary, and enforced by a Home Office Police Force at Divisional Strength, with firearms, water-cannon, tear gas and rubber bullets…in riot armour with shields and clubs? (No quarter given)
Start there, but there are plenty more ideas we could try out..!
” Boris Johnson is anything but boring — but he’s also not very serious.”
Wrong. They’ve never understood Johnson. Too lazy and/or too stupid. He only wants you to think he’s not serious …
I’ll tell you who’s not serious – Aaron Bastani.
The idea that Johnson could ever be a “company man” is ludicrous. He’s only ever been in the Boris Johnson party.
I was undecided whether or not Boris’ return would be a good or a bad thing for the Conservatives, but now that I read that Bastani co-founder of the NM crowd seems a little worried about such a return, I’m convinced that his return (albeit hypothetical) would be a good thing.
I tend to agree with the author on this, but I have to question whether he is the right guy to advise the Conservative Party!
The headline says it all. A lot of conservatives are still hurt and wounded (some literally) by BJ’s careless (what did we expect?) and headless chicken approach to the crisis. He is poison. Whatever he touches will turn to liquified (first prize for the right word).
Just an odd comparison – macron is the opposite of BJ:- suave and immaculately dressed, while Boris was trying very hard to look nonchalant. Macron at least had some success with his polices but ultimately the French saw through his charade. He will go soon. On the other hand, Boris just bumbled along after the win without any direction. So he went well before Macron.
Macron is very much the bete noir of the British, but actually if we are really brave enough to take a lesson in international relations just look at how Macron and the French leaders before him going back to the 50s have nurtured a special relationship between France and India, the hallmark of which is mutual trust and being able to depend on one another! Funny thing is that the British media resolutely ignore that story. After all, it gives the lie to the Brexiteer elite’s commonwealth narrative.
The Canadian opposition leader Pierre Pollievre is the pattern to follow.
Curious how Aaron Bastani strikes a different tone on Unherd. His Novara Media, when I first watched it, I enjoyed for its little kickabouts between Aaron, Michael and Ash. But now it has descended into a site for all-encompassing ethno-religious identity politics and latterly a cauldron of anti-semitism!
The West no longer has leaders who have had to make life or death decisions before they become middle managers. Those working in mines, trawling, heavy construction, oil exploration, forestry and been in combat have had to earn the respect of tough men and worked in an environment where mistakes can kill or cause much damage. A friend who had been a foreman in construction told me six men had died on sites during his career.
Working in extremely hot, humid, cold, wet windy for long hours, especially at night, in dirty and dangerous conditions, where everyone has to operate as a team and carelessness kills, force people to take responsibility and be professional. One has to look another person in the eyes and ask the question ” Do I trust this person with my life ” and they ask the same question of you.
For an insight into leadership I suggest people listen to Cheshire VC.
RAF CASPS Historic Interview | Group Captain Leonard Cheshire – YouTube
At the end Cheshire is asked about courage and leadership.
We now have people in leadership who believe castles can be built in the air and turn tail at the slightest danger.
However, do we want leaders of the calibre of Cheshire VC and Hallows GC: would they not make us feel inadequate ? In a world where feelings are of vital importance, especially that of hurt, who wants to be made to feel inadequate ?
Thanks for the link Charles – really enjoyed that interview. I was actually at school just over the road from the Bracknell RAF Staff College (knocked down and now a housing estate) at the time this interview was made.
The best leaders I’ve known have always had some humility (like Leonard Cheshire clearly had).
I know you’re not keen on the Yanks. But you might well enjoy this (20 mins):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaQZFhrW0fU
Tell me this man’s not a leader. “Never ring the bell !”.
Thank you for the link. I am not keen on post 1960s American culture. J Kennedy, Dr M L King , putting men on the Moon and their safe return, and Motown ( “Love Child ” by D Ross and The Supremes ) showed graceful, civilised conduct. Gangsta rap with the celebration of violence and worship of mammon plus the woke denigration of the pioneering spirit of the early settlers, shows decadence and decline. NASA of the 1960s and 1970s demonstrated the pioneering spirit of the early settlers which of the first ten thousand, only two thousand survived.
Kennedy, King and Motown demonstrated the virtues of Western civilisation and therefore upheld them.As Dr Thomas Sowell has said ” If one does not defend civilisation one gets barbarity. “
There is no BLM without MLK and LBJ. There is no woke without the CRA.
What we can see since 1919 is that Cultural Marxists/Gramsci can take a good idea/organisation infiltrate it and pervert them for their own purpose. The West, both traditional Non Conformist patriotic Labour, iberals and Conservatives have been utterly naive on this matter. For example, The Welfare State as developed by the Liberals in 1905 and Beveridge Report in 1942s is completely different to what we have today.
Group Captain Chesire had started a genuine charity in Calcutta. But he never got the recognition he deserved while Mother Teresa who did far less was feted.
Thank you , never knew that.
I’m not on the Left but it’s very hard to find a single word to disagree with Aaron Bastiani here! The Tories must be utterly desperate, and it really does show.
…for all his many faults, Johnson loves this Country, it’s history, culture and rather odd and quirky people…and indeed it’s legends and heroes…and has some notion of what it once was, and might be again…unlike people like the author, and indeed Starmer…who hate it, us…and our history…and will destroy us if they can.
Personally, I’d prefer the one to the other…as indeed do many of us…