July 3, 2023 - 6:30pm
In the spring of 1775 a wave of riots, approximately 300 in total, engulfed the Kingdom of France. The protests did not subside until the army had been deployed and hundreds of rioters arrested. These events became known as the “Flour War” because the riots were precipitated by a sharp increase in grain prices, which were then passed on to French consumers in the form of higher food prices.
While the Flour War seems like ancient history, it may well have something to tell us about the riots taking place in France over the last few days. Of course, the immediate cause of this unrest was the shooting of a teenager by police. Yet it follows on from smaller riots this year, first in response to President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms, and then to the building of reservoirs in the west of the country.
It is hard to escape the obvious conclusion: these riots, all set off by different immediate causes, point to underlying discontent in the French population. One does not have to look very hard to find it. Just as in 1775, French food prices are increasing, with a 22% rise since 2021. And that’s before considering France’s still-high energy prices.
The result of these rising costs has been a decline in French food consumption of nearly 17%, the largest such national decline since the data started in the early 1980s. Up until now, drawdowns — that is, peak-to-trough declines — in food consumption have never exceeded 4%. And even when they hit this level, they quickly reverted.
Today, however, we are seeing persistent and historically unprecedented drawdowns in the country’s food consumption. Indeed, modern France has never experienced this sort of hit to its basic living standards.
Naturally, declines in food consumption hit the poorest harder. Research shows that people with higher incomes spend significantly lower proportions of their incomes on food than those who earn less. People in the top 25% of incomes spend around 7.6% of their income on food, while those in the bottom quarter spend over 30%. It is this latter group which accounts for much of the fall in food consumption.
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SubscribeJudging by the behaviour of these mobs, whether BLM or the ones right now in France, I doubt it’s about food.
If anything, it’s partly because the state takes care of their basic necessities. Charity doesn’t make people grateful, it seems.
But it’s also an insult to people in genuine poverty.
For instance, a taxi driver I met in Delhi. Genuinely poor, working 14 hours a day.
Barely had anything, cheap phone, cheap clothes. And the big reason for that, apart from being poor, was because despite his poverty, he scraped all his money to send his child to a private, fee paying school.
I suspect, though food was not a problem, his family would lack many things such as holidays, TVs etc taken for granted by the “poor” in the West.
And I also very strongly doubt he would himself go around rioting or tolerate his child behaving badly.
Different world, but unlike some “compassionate” lefties, I find it difficult to sympathise with those burning down Western cities wearing designer clothes and carrying smartphones that cost more than that taxi drivers monthly pay, because they allegedly lack food.
Yes, culture is huge, isn’t it? In Tanzania we hired private guides who we got to know fairly well. Unlike your taxi driver, they complained of being unable to afford school for their children, yet they had cell phones and went out drinking often. (I think the actual schooling was free, but children couldn’t attend if they lacked uniforms and books, which the parents had to pay for).
This weeks “it never happened award” goes to………
This weeks “it never happened award” goes to………
Yes, culture is huge, isn’t it? In Tanzania we hired private guides who we got to know fairly well. Unlike your taxi driver, they complained of being unable to afford school for their children, yet they had cell phones and went out drinking often. (I think the actual schooling was free, but children couldn’t attend if they lacked uniforms and books, which the parents had to pay for).
Judging by the behaviour of these mobs, whether BLM or the ones right now in France, I doubt it’s about food.
If anything, it’s partly because the state takes care of their basic necessities. Charity doesn’t make people grateful, it seems.
But it’s also an insult to people in genuine poverty.
For instance, a taxi driver I met in Delhi. Genuinely poor, working 14 hours a day.
Barely had anything, cheap phone, cheap clothes. And the big reason for that, apart from being poor, was because despite his poverty, he scraped all his money to send his child to a private, fee paying school.
I suspect, though food was not a problem, his family would lack many things such as holidays, TVs etc taken for granted by the “poor” in the West.
And I also very strongly doubt he would himself go around rioting or tolerate his child behaving badly.
Different world, but unlike some “compassionate” lefties, I find it difficult to sympathise with those burning down Western cities wearing designer clothes and carrying smartphones that cost more than that taxi drivers monthly pay, because they allegedly lack food.
One must congratulate the author on his insight into the mindset of those engaged in the rioting. He must’ve carried out intensive research, catching them between their usual bouts of taking the trolley round the supermarket whilst tut-tutting at the prices.
Burning cars and attacking town halls is a symptom of hunger, whereas raiding food premises would just be mindless violence.
Maybe the rioters diet consists mainly of designer training shoes …
Let them eat Nike!
Let them eat Nike!
Maybe the rioters diet consists mainly of designer training shoes …
One must congratulate the author on his insight into the mindset of those engaged in the rioting. He must’ve carried out intensive research, catching them between their usual bouts of taking the trolley round the supermarket whilst tut-tutting at the prices.
Burning cars and attacking town halls is a symptom of hunger, whereas raiding food premises would just be mindless violence.
It’s certainly a theory.
But I’m calling BS on this.
“The result of these rising costs has been a decline in French food consumption of nearly 17%.”
This is cited with evidence or reference. It’s so improbable that I simply don’t believe it. It fails the most basic sanity tests.
A quick check on the most recent financial results of French supermarkets showed that these grew quite strongly in money terms. Food inflation would need to be massive to offset that enough to result in a huge drop in food consumption.
Additionally, the share of disposable income people spend on food in developed countries is hugely lower than it was in 1775. We are far less sensitive to food prices. And we have far easier things to sacrifice before we need to cut food consumption – provided we choose to.
“People in the top 25% of incomes spend around 7.6% of their income on food, while those in the bottom quarter spend over 30%. It is this latter group which accounts for much of the fall in food consumption.”
Nice try. But there simply aren’t enough people in the bottom quarter to move the national average down by 17%. They’d literally be eating nothing. They wouldn’t have the energy to get out of the house, let alone riot.
There’s probably some drop in French national food consumption. But 17% (average across the country) ? Come off it.
Pilkington’s apparently neat theory also fails to explain why the rioting is limited to certain communities (one commentator on another article today used the word “tribes”, which might be equally apposite). Poverty isn’t limited to specific ethnic or cultural groups.
Pilkington might want to blame the West’s response to Ukraine, but yet again he fails. Desperate marketing as they call it in “Private Eye”.
Frankly, there are other quite obvious factors here:
#1 It’s summer and hot – peak season for riots
#2 They’re French – they do like a demo (“manif”) or riot over there
#3 Macron is very unpopular and seems out of touch (probably because he is)
#4 The HLM (public tower block housing) zones of French cities have been left to rot for decades – politicians certainly don’t live there and probably don’t go there either
Doubtless several others.
The 17% does seem monumentally high. It scared the beejesus out of me. Author should have cited the figure. I don’t think it should be discounted out of hand either.
It is a shame that there is no reference to the study. The British example is a Sky News article which references a Which! survey which I can’t find the data for.
Is 17% a figure for calories? Or for Euros spent? Or for items in the basket? The last one seems quite likely – spending the same money for fewer items, still eating enough calories but fewer treats and takeaways etc.
Missed your reply – I was thinking the same thing.
Missed your reply – I was thinking the same thing.
It is a shame that there is no reference to the study. The British example is a Sky News article which references a Which! survey which I can’t find the data for.
Is 17% a figure for calories? Or for Euros spent? Or for items in the basket? The last one seems quite likely – spending the same money for fewer items, still eating enough calories but fewer treats and takeaways etc.
Actual LOL at “It’s certainly a theory”.
I could see a 17% reduction in spending vs inflation but not consumption.
For instance, a weekly food bill of £100 two years ago is now £120 for the same items but people are making choices to keep the bill down to £100, such as buying cheaper cuts of meat or more budget brands.
That I would find believable.
A 17% reduction in calorific intake is enormous (nutrients aside) is about 340 kCal for an average adult. That would be the equivalent of losing 1kg every 3 weeks (assuming I’ve got my maths right).
That I would not find believable.
Not so fast on calling BS.
Another study shows British 5-year olds are shorter than they were pre-pandemic.
https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/economic-cutbacks-making-british-kids-shorter-study/
I can imagine myself late on a hot summer night, not having had much to eat since scones, being particularly irritable. Particularly if my girl friend had just berated my manhood for me not being able to pay my share of her electricity bill. Might make me want to throw a punch.
The 17% does seem monumentally high. It scared the beejesus out of me. Author should have cited the figure. I don’t think it should be discounted out of hand either.
Actual LOL at “It’s certainly a theory”.
I could see a 17% reduction in spending vs inflation but not consumption.
For instance, a weekly food bill of £100 two years ago is now £120 for the same items but people are making choices to keep the bill down to £100, such as buying cheaper cuts of meat or more budget brands.
That I would find believable.
A 17% reduction in calorific intake is enormous (nutrients aside) is about 340 kCal for an average adult. That would be the equivalent of losing 1kg every 3 weeks (assuming I’ve got my maths right).
That I would not find believable.
Not so fast on calling BS.
Another study shows British 5-year olds are shorter than they were pre-pandemic.
https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/economic-cutbacks-making-british-kids-shorter-study/
I can imagine myself late on a hot summer night, not having had much to eat since scones, being particularly irritable. Particularly if my girl friend had just berated my manhood for me not being able to pay my share of her electricity bill. Might make me want to throw a punch.
It’s certainly a theory.
But I’m calling BS on this.
“The result of these rising costs has been a decline in French food consumption of nearly 17%.”
This is cited with evidence or reference. It’s so improbable that I simply don’t believe it. It fails the most basic sanity tests.
A quick check on the most recent financial results of French supermarkets showed that these grew quite strongly in money terms. Food inflation would need to be massive to offset that enough to result in a huge drop in food consumption.
Additionally, the share of disposable income people spend on food in developed countries is hugely lower than it was in 1775. We are far less sensitive to food prices. And we have far easier things to sacrifice before we need to cut food consumption – provided we choose to.
“People in the top 25% of incomes spend around 7.6% of their income on food, while those in the bottom quarter spend over 30%. It is this latter group which accounts for much of the fall in food consumption.”
Nice try. But there simply aren’t enough people in the bottom quarter to move the national average down by 17%. They’d literally be eating nothing. They wouldn’t have the energy to get out of the house, let alone riot.
There’s probably some drop in French national food consumption. But 17% (average across the country) ? Come off it.
Pilkington’s apparently neat theory also fails to explain why the rioting is limited to certain communities (one commentator on another article today used the word “tribes”, which might be equally apposite). Poverty isn’t limited to specific ethnic or cultural groups.
Pilkington might want to blame the West’s response to Ukraine, but yet again he fails. Desperate marketing as they call it in “Private Eye”.
Frankly, there are other quite obvious factors here:
#1 It’s summer and hot – peak season for riots
#2 They’re French – they do like a demo (“manif”) or riot over there
#3 Macron is very unpopular and seems out of touch (probably because he is)
#4 The HLM (public tower block housing) zones of French cities have been left to rot for decades – politicians certainly don’t live there and probably don’t go there either
Doubtless several others.
If the riots are about the costs of food, shouldn’t the rioters be nicking the food staples (bread, milk etc) to feed their families? Aren’t they stealing trainers instead?
If the riots are about the costs of food, shouldn’t the rioters be nicking the food staples (bread, milk etc) to feed their families? Aren’t they stealing trainers instead?
I blame Brexit.
I blame Thatcher.
No, it was Winston Churchill.
No, it was whiteness.
No, it was whiteness.
No, it was Winston Churchill.
I blame Thatcher.
I blame Brexit.
Same thing happens in many Arab/African counties, why would France be any different
Same thing happens in many Arab/African counties, why would France be any different
French food consumption has dropped nearly 17%. This is an absolutely staggering number!!! It’s profoundly disturbing and should scare every politician in every jurisdiction, regardless of their ideology. Do we have similar stats for other countries? I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see this improving in the near term. Let’s keep on script Netherlands and shut down 3,000 farms. You too Ireland. The incompetence and ignorance of our political leadership is breathtaking.
I wonder how they measure the consumption of home-grown food and/or food sold in open markets? The fact that many of these people come from cultures that eat a very basic plant based diet may also have an impact on the statistics. Consuming 3 meals a day of rice and beans can certainly skew the data.
I wonder how they measure the consumption of home-grown food and/or food sold in open markets? The fact that many of these people come from cultures that eat a very basic plant based diet may also have an impact on the statistics. Consuming 3 meals a day of rice and beans can certainly skew the data.
French food consumption has dropped nearly 17%. This is an absolutely staggering number!!! It’s profoundly disturbing and should scare every politician in every jurisdiction, regardless of their ideology. Do we have similar stats for other countries? I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see this improving in the near term. Let’s keep on script Netherlands and shut down 3,000 farms. You too Ireland. The incompetence and ignorance of our political leadership is breathtaking.
This is utter nonsense. When your statistics say something unbelievable, don’t believe them.
This is utter nonsense. When your statistics say something unbelievable, don’t believe them.
This a spurious argument at best. Every country in Europe is experiencing high food inflation so why aren’t there riots on the streets of London, Berlin and Amsterdam? Are the French so angry about having to go short of baguettes and croissants that they have to set fire to cars and loot Apple stores to express their indignation?
I suspect the author knows the real reason for the violence as well as we do.
This a spurious argument at best. Every country in Europe is experiencing high food inflation so why aren’t there riots on the streets of London, Berlin and Amsterdam? Are the French so angry about having to go short of baguettes and croissants that they have to set fire to cars and loot Apple stores to express their indignation?
I suspect the author knows the real reason for the violence as well as we do.
France has always had riots, long before Ukraine and they’ll have them long after the conflict is finished. Is there anything Pilkington won’t try and blame the sanctions for?
I’m just waiting for a Daily Mail style “Sanctions Cause Cancer!” article from him next
Exactly. Was ever an agenda so transparent? Unbelievable nonsense. Just blatantly fantasising and making stuff up. Anything to find an angle to attack support for Ukraine against the murderous rat in the Kremlin. The protesters are largely woke scumbags, who wouldn’t know the price of anything as they mostly nick stuff in the first place.
Exactly. Was ever an agenda so transparent? Unbelievable nonsense. Just blatantly fantasising and making stuff up. Anything to find an angle to attack support for Ukraine against the murderous rat in the Kremlin. The protesters are largely woke scumbags, who wouldn’t know the price of anything as they mostly nick stuff in the first place.
France has always had riots, long before Ukraine and they’ll have them long after the conflict is finished. Is there anything Pilkington won’t try and blame the sanctions for?
I’m just waiting for a Daily Mail style “Sanctions Cause Cancer!” article from him next
“Surveys” only show what people self-report. If these were reliable, then 80% of drivers would be better than average (sic)
In this case, even if the self-report was accurate, just skipping a single meal would count.
“Surveys” only show what people self-report. If these were reliable, then 80% of drivers would be better than average (sic)
In this case, even if the self-report was accurate, just skipping a single meal would count.
The problem everywhere in the West is the price of accommodation, not food, which is generally still cheaper than it’s ever been. It’s rents and house price rises, the consequence of the elite’s desire for a ghettoised society, that are making life unbearable for poorer people.
The problem everywhere in the West is the price of accommodation, not food, which is generally still cheaper than it’s ever been. It’s rents and house price rises, the consequence of the elite’s desire for a ghettoised society, that are making life unbearable for poorer people.
Clear example of ‘correlation is not causation’
People don’t riot because food prices go up 22%, they shoplift and try to get on with their lives.
This is no more complicated than a huge segment of the population with no connection to their host country (immigrants & refugees) taking a spark and turning it into a bonfire to enrich & entertain themselves.
And in other news……”Researchers are baffled as to why a sedentary lifestyle, combined with a huge increase in caloric intake, is leading to an obesity epidemic.”
And in other news……”Researchers are baffled as to why a sedentary lifestyle, combined with a huge increase in caloric intake, is leading to an obesity epidemic.”
Clear example of ‘correlation is not causation’
People don’t riot because food prices go up 22%, they shoplift and try to get on with their lives.
This is no more complicated than a huge segment of the population with no connection to their host country (immigrants & refugees) taking a spark and turning it into a bonfire to enrich & entertain themselves.
I live in France. I watch CNews every morning, Tf1 at lunchtime.
My French is fairly basic but I have not come across this figure concerning food consumption.
I live in France. I watch CNews every morning, Tf1 at lunchtime.
My French is fairly basic but I have not come across this figure concerning food consumption.
Playing an useful idiot for isIamists? The elephant in the room is obvious!
https://www.firstpost.com/world/watch-mob-shout-allahu-akbar-during-riots-in-france-after-teen-shot-by-police-12811132.html
Playing an useful idiot for isIamists? The elephant in the room is obvious!
https://www.firstpost.com/world/watch-mob-shout-allahu-akbar-during-riots-in-france-after-teen-shot-by-police-12811132.html
I really hope Unherd don’t pay very much for this superficial crap.
Shouldn’t an economist know that correlation does not equal causation?
None of the rioters (or the adults explaining their grievances) have mentioned rising food price as a reason. It is hard to think they are throwing paving stones at the police because the price of a Big Mac has gone up. The majority of them are teenagers who probably don’t even pay for their own food.
While trying to find the source of his data (he just states INEE without a hyperlink – searching the site was useless) I found Mr Pilkington has gone on a multi post rant about how Unherd readers are questioning his sources. Ironically he’s written about 10 times as many words on this as the original article. However he at least did provide a source of his data, several angry tweets in.
Here’s a suggestion: link your source. Also, don’t use measures like “drawdown” that most people aren’t familiar with. Just show the drop in consumption (which seems to have dropped to 2012 levels). Anyway, here is the link
https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010565748#Tableau
I really hope Unherd don’t pay very much for this superficial crap.
Shouldn’t an economist know that correlation does not equal causation?
None of the rioters (or the adults explaining their grievances) have mentioned rising food price as a reason. It is hard to think they are throwing paving stones at the police because the price of a Big Mac has gone up. The majority of them are teenagers who probably don’t even pay for their own food.
While trying to find the source of his data (he just states INEE without a hyperlink – searching the site was useless) I found Mr Pilkington has gone on a multi post rant about how Unherd readers are questioning his sources. Ironically he’s written about 10 times as many words on this as the original article. However he at least did provide a source of his data, several angry tweets in.
Here’s a suggestion: link your source. Also, don’t use measures like “drawdown” that most people aren’t familiar with. Just show the drop in consumption (which seems to have dropped to 2012 levels). Anyway, here is the link
https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/serie/010565748#Tableau
Do any of these rioters actually go shopping?
Do any of these rioters actually go shopping?
People riot because they have no stake in society. They don’t see themselves ever having any stake, or any future, like they are on the outside looking in. It makes people angry.
In fact it makes them so angry that they have to go out and loot some designer trainers, clothes, mobile phones etc – then they feel a bit better. And if you’ve smashed your way into an Apple Store, aren’t you on the inside looking out?
These rioters do not seek a stake in the French society, they want to radically change the French society! They want nothing less than Sharia implemented.
Maybe we should all migrate to Iran and riot in the streets over the lack of bacon!
Very funny. Give me cheeseburgers or give me death!
Very funny. Give me cheeseburgers or give me death!
In fact it makes them so angry that they have to go out and loot some designer trainers, clothes, mobile phones etc – then they feel a bit better. And if you’ve smashed your way into an Apple Store, aren’t you on the inside looking out?
These rioters do not seek a stake in the French society, they want to radically change the French society! They want nothing less than Sharia implemented.
Maybe we should all migrate to Iran and riot in the streets over the lack of bacon!
People riot because they have no stake in society. They don’t see themselves ever having any stake, or any future, like they are on the outside looking in. It makes people angry.
Just read the headline..what utter bs.
Will read article and maybe comment again.
Just read the headline..what utter bs.
Will read article and maybe comment again.
The article points to “a decline in French food consumption of nearly 17%”. This is a bit misleading. What the author means is that spending on food has declined. The demand for ethical and “authentic” local produce is surprisngly strong in France. So, instead of tightening their belts, the French simply have to follow the example of the Brits by switching to non-organic, unethical, produced-lord-knows-where nosh.
The article points to “a decline in French food consumption of nearly 17%”. This is a bit misleading. What the author means is that spending on food has declined. The demand for ethical and “authentic” local produce is surprisngly strong in France. So, instead of tightening their belts, the French simply have to follow the example of the Brits by switching to non-organic, unethical, produced-lord-knows-where nosh.
The article is onto something, but, it is incomplete and falls far short of an analysis. France, like the US and the UK is a society with too many elites and wannabe elites. The existing elites of the elites, top 1% of the 1% act as a money pump on the rest of society. Peter Turchin explains this in his latest book END TIMES and looked at the same phenomena in a previous book AGES OF DISCORD., where he apples his analysis to the US in previous times such as the period running up to the civil war.
This insight is much needed in discussions today because the polarity is increasing and a price needs to be paid by elites. Fair taxation is needed along with better wages. A price the elites would prefer not to pay but need to pay if stability is to be achieved.. James Lindsay in his most recent podcast states that stability prevents revolutions. Are the elite prepared to pay a price for stability?
The article is onto something, but, it is incomplete and falls far short of an analysis. France, like the US and the UK is a society with too many elites and wannabe elites. The existing elites of the elites, top 1% of the 1% act as a money pump on the rest of society. Peter Turchin explains this in his latest book END TIMES and looked at the same phenomena in a previous book AGES OF DISCORD., where he apples his analysis to the US in previous times such as the period running up to the civil war.
This insight is much needed in discussions today because the polarity is increasing and a price needs to be paid by elites. Fair taxation is needed along with better wages. A price the elites would prefer not to pay but need to pay if stability is to be achieved.. James Lindsay in his most recent podcast states that stability prevents revolutions. Are the elite prepared to pay a price for stability?
Clara B comments with the interesting point that if they are hungry why aren’t they stealing food. But I am not sure it so rational as that. Perhaps people steal what is otherwise completely beyond them. There is a huge upsurge in retail theft in US. From pics I have seen the women seem to steal food while the men steal hard goods.
Clara B comments with the interesting point that if they are hungry why aren’t they stealing food. But I am not sure it so rational as that. Perhaps people steal what is otherwise completely beyond them. There is a huge upsurge in retail theft in US. From pics I have seen the women seem to steal food while the men steal hard goods.
Yep, you can prove anything with statistics…..
Forfty percent of all people know that
Forfty percent of all people know that
Yep, you can prove anything with statistics…..
Having just returned to France, previously there in March, I reckon that prices are up 30O percent.. not least cigarettes..
Those Gitannes are making you high!
Those Gitannes are making you high!
Having just returned to France, previously there in March, I reckon that prices are up 30O percent.. not least cigarettes..