March 25, 2025 - 7:00am
Discussions yesterday between Russian and American negotiators in Saudi Arabia focused on a topic which seems, at first glance, an uncontroversial first step to a broader peace deal. US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said that they would focus on a “maritime ceasefire so that both sides can move grain, fuel, and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea”.
For his part, Russian leader Vladimir Putin indicated last week that he was “favourable” towards implementing “a well-known proposal regarding the safety of navigation in the Black Sea”. He was referring to the 2022 grain deal from which Moscow withdrew the following year, claiming that the West was not fulfilling the conditions to enable Russian agricultural exports.
The Kremlin’s interest is unsurprising, since it stands to gain significantly from such a truce. Ukraine has enjoyed remarkable success in challenging Russia for control of the Black Sea. Kyiv successfully forced Russia’s navy out of the western part, disrupting Russian logistics and assisting Ukrainian attacks on occupied Crimea, and also reports having “fire control” over the neighbouring Sea of Azov.
Ukraine has taken advantage of this to re-establish its main grain export route, nearing pre-war volumes and enjoying a much-needed economic boost. In contrast, following its withdrawal from the grain deal, Moscow complained of being unable to trade food and fertiliser products, making it likely that the Kremlin will now use its rapprochement with the US to push for greater liberalisation. Having adapted successfully, Ukraine has little to gain.
That is before one turns to the broader impact of a truce on regional safety. Romanian and Bulgarian officials have already confessed to worries that such a ceasefire will expand the Russian navy’s operational area. Moscow has traditionally valued the Black Sea as an important space for projecting power into the Mediterranean, Middle East and Europe, meaning the Kremlin will eagerly take advantage of its newfound freedom of movement to expand its influence abroad. Then there is the issue of sequencing. Resolving the issue of the Black Sea now, before negotiations about a broader ceasefire, deprives Ukraine of a potential bargaining chip in those subsequent peace talks.
There are further signs of these early stages benefitting Moscow. Both sides have accepted in principle a moratorium on energy strikes. However, that does not take into consideration that, although Russia and Ukraine have attacked one another’s energy infrastructure during the conflict, these hits have functioned very differently. Kyiv’s strikes on Russia’s oil facilities have managed to harm the production and revenues that Moscow needs to sustain its war effort, with the potential to continue indefinitely. By contrast, Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities have aimed at sapping morale by plunging civilians into freezing temperatures. As such, Moscow’s agreement to halt attacks on energy infrastructure is less of a concession than it is for Kyiv, winter having now passed.
With Waltz saying that the US may ask Russia to return abducted Ukrainian children as a “confidence-building measure”, we might then see how the Kremlin approaches a purely Ukrainian demand from which it cannot benefit. Russia will likely create obstacles or delays in the hope of the issue being lost or traded in the broader mix of peace negotiations to come.
These early stages are supposed to build confidence, but Ukraine won’t be feeling that way. In a far-reaching interview with Time magazine yesterday, Zelensky seemed increasingly pessimistic, saying that he thinks “Russia has managed to influence some people on the White House team”. Russia has given no indication of making any genuine concessions, and is getting back into the Black Sea after all Kyiv’s efforts to force it out. Last week, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff revealed Putin’s claim to have prayed for the US President’s recovery from an assassination attempt. It was perhaps a rare moment of honesty from the Russian leader: his prayers are being swiftly answered.
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SubscribeFreedom of movement in the Black Sea would be marvellous. Russia could export all its Ukrainian grain, Ukrainian mineral resources, Ukrainian industrial goods; all the stuff from the land it has stolen by brute force. On top of that Russia could more easily export its oil (breaking sanctions) and return to its efforts of dominating the Mediterranean. Wonderful benefits for all the world!
How do things play out in your fantasy land?
Russia remains a pariah forever?
All Russian vessels in the Blank Sea sunk on sight, World War 3 be damned?
How about Russia remains a pariah while it persists in its brutal, illegal occupation of a sovereign country and tries to destroy that part of the country it doesn’t occupy?
How about you guys send Blair and Cameron to jail first?
Maybe then you’ll have a leg to stand on when demanding anything of anyone from the moral high ground after the illegal invasions and coups the Brits sponsored (from America’s lap) and participated in since the fall of the USSR.
The Russians (and the rest of the world) watched you waltz into countries after destabilizing them and toppling governments left and right for 30 years before Ukraine really kicked off and now westerners are surprised they got the idea that sovereignty is negotiable?
Fortuitously we suffered humiliating defeats in both Iraq and Afghanistan, as of course we justly deserved.
Perhaps throwing away some 600 odd lives and leaving another 2,500 with what are euphemistically called ‘life changing injuries’ has taught us a lesson?
As far as I can tell, the lesson that was learned there was to send other peoples children to die for Anglo-imperial games because sacrificing your own populace for undefined wargoals was a hard sell back home.
Realistically, Ukraine was never a core interest for either the US or UK and it was hubris that made them push Nato even further east (was the entire former Warsaw pact + the baltics & most of the Balkans not enough?), despite there being no appetite for it locally (which would only change after decades of interference and culminated in Maidan).
I would’ve hoped the last coalition of the willing might have taught your government(s) to put your house in order before telling others how to do it. This is my basic criticism of the US and EU as well, the unipolar moment was wasted but there’s no reason to keep throwing good lives & money after bad in Ukraine.
The Russians aren’t going anywhere, both the UK and EU will have to deal with them for the foreseeable future and telling them openly that we’re getting ready for a war with them while barely doing anything to prepare (aside from preening in the European media bubble) seems like a recipe for even greater disaster.
The core interest of the Neocons was to dismantle Russia (the Wolfowitz Doctrine). Ukraine was never a core interest of the USA, but the key for the Neocons’ ambition.
Of course it has had considerable blowback, as most of the Neocons plans have. The biggest blowback is the renewed friendship of Russia and China, which Trump is clearly trying to undo. He may not succeed.
I don’t know how you got all that from my post! Creative!
I thought all this was meant to be about a ceasefire or a truce to be followed by negotiations (admittedly lasting years). Instead, while the fight is continuing on the battlefield, where Putin is winning (which would mean a result favourable to Russia when the talking starts after a truce), he seems to want to open a new front at the diplomatic level. I don’t understand what Putin is doing.
Simples – he wants Ukraine to surrender!
So…let Ukraine fight the war by itself.
The best way to achieve peace in the Black Sea would be to send the Russian Black Sea fleet to the bottom of it.
Yeah, that definitely wouldn’t provoke any kind of unpleasant reaction.
Grow up.