January 13, 2025 - 7:00am

On Saturday, a Ukrainian drone attack struck the Taneco refinery in Tatarstan, one of Russia’s largest and most advanced oil-processing facilities. Such tactics are nothing new: Kyiv has been conducting drone strikes against oil and gas terminals in Russia since January of last year and this is the second Ukrainian attack on the Taneco facility.

Andrii Kovalenko, Head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, explained the significance of such hits: “The refinery plays a key role in providing fuel to the Russian military. Taking out refineries and oil depots directly affects Russia’s ability to wage an intensive war”.

It does so in two ways: strikes reduce the supply of fuel available to Moscow for battling Ukraine, exerting economic pressure on Russia by cutting off the oil revenues that fund the conflict. They additionally constitute retribution for the frequent attacks Moscow has launched on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, as Russia has endeavoured to destabilise Ukraine’s power system and force blackouts on civilians.

Kyiv has enjoyed significant success with these strikes. Last year, Russian oil production slumped to a 20-year low partly due to unscheduled repairs following drone attacks, with hits on the largest facilities proving particularly damaging to overall production figures. The use of drones makes it a low-risk, high-yield strategy: images of towering infernos and staff evacuations diminish Russia’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier yet are achieved with minimal effort and loss of life.

It is unsurprising that Ukraine wishes to continue waging this particular war. However, the forthcoming inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump has given Kyiv fresh impetus to target as many large facilities as possible while it still can. While Trump is reportedly now discussing ending the war in months rather than days, he still seems committed to forcing the conflict to a conclusion. As such, Kyiv is now likely striving to inflict as much damage to Russia’s finances and oil-production capabilities as it can, with every strike depriving Moscow of economic clout at the negotiating table. Expect more attacks on important sites in the coming days.

Kyiv has not always enjoyed the support of the outgoing Biden administration for its strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, with the US fearful that such actions would raise oil prices and provoke retaliation. However, on Friday, the US and UK announced new sanctions on Russia’s oil and liquefied natural gas sectors, welcomed by industry officials as tough measures forming strong leverage to force Moscow into negotiations. That sense of triumph was immediately tempered by speculation that Trump — a man with a history of rolling back the legacy of previous presidents — could revoke the sanctions. Though some would necessitate the involvement of Congress, even Biden officials have admitted that it would be up to the next administration while Team Trump offered no comment.

When Ukraine first hit Russian energy facilities, it reflected a need for drastic action after legal methods to curb Moscow’s oil revenues had failed. “You can’t persuade countries like India and China to stop buying,” commented Ukrainian journalist Illia Ponomarenko last year. “So you knock out Russian oil refineries.” That same impulse remains, Kyiv fearing that the current pincer movement — Ukraine hitting Russian oil production via drones, the US using sanctions — may soon cease.

The Ukrainian President has been complimenting Trump of late. To paraphrase the old maxim, Volodymyr Zelensky knows that flattery will get him somewhere. Yet, for all the superficial bonhomie, this last jolt of attacks signifies Ukraine’s fundamental lack of faith in the incoming administration to maintain pressure on Moscow. As Taneco smoulders, the US-Ukraine alliance is also under fire.


Bethany Elliott is a writer specialising in Russia and Eastern Europe.

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