January 13, 2025 - 11:15pm
In his final foreign policy address as President, Joe Biden today struck a self-congratulatory note. He claimed that the United States and its allies were stronger than when he took office, while their adversaries were weaker. Yet the celebratory tone of the speech bore only a pale resemblance to the disappointing foreign policy legacy his administration will leave. Biden’s speech frequently had the odd character of claiming the goals with which he entered office had been achieved, when in fact they were frequently swept aside by subsequent events.
The outgoing President boasted that the US had been successfully outcompeting China, while also claiming that his administration had restabilised diplomatic relations with Beijing. In fact, US-China tensions have only increased over the past four years, particularly over the issue of Taiwan, which Biden himself has repeatedly claimed the US would defend if attacked. Meanwhile, the administration’s signature investments into US industry have not yet borne fruit, its export controls on Chinese tech have partially backfired, and the country’s share of global manufacturing lags well behind China’s.
Biden also touted the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as successful defences of the US-led world order that have sapped the strength of its adversaries. Yet, while it’s true that Russia was humbled following its invasion of Ukraine, it has gained what is likely an irreversible advantage in the conflict. Since the invasion, the US has exposed itself to significant escalation risks, while Ukraine has been devastated. It is highly likely that Volodymyr Zelensky will now have to buy peace at the cost of territory which could have been retained had Biden retracted the Bush administration’s foolish 2008 pledge to bring Ukraine into Nato.
Meanwhile, US support for Israel has made a mockery of the rhetoric of a “rules-based order”, as Gaza is levelled and its population pummelled. While Iran and its regional proxies have been weakened, an al-Qaeda offshoot has conquered Syria, the Right-wing Israeli government seems bent on expansion, and Tehran may feel more compelled to acquire a nuclear deterrent to shore up its eroding position.
Biden also claimed that US allies were stronger than ever, pointing to increased spending and the development of new security ties. But by doubling down on its commitment to allies and partners, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, his administration has effectively discouraged them from taking on the responsibilities and consequences of their own defence, as exemplified by Germany’s failure to make good on its much-ballyhooed Zeitenwende, or Israel’s repeated flouting of Washington’s demands for restraint.
One place Biden rightfully defended his legacy was the Afghanistan withdrawal. Biden rejected “domino theory”-style claims that the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban would undermine US credibility elsewhere, and correctly argued that it was only to the benefit of its adversaries for the US to be tied down in a peripheral conflict.
Yet while Biden acknowledged that “the post-Cold War era is over” and that “a new era has begun”, his rhetoric was largely indistinguishable from that of the “unipolar moment”. Had he applied the same rejection of “domino thinking” in Afghanistan to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, had he come through on the “ruthless prioritisation” insisted on in his own National Military Strategy, and had he focused on the domestic reconstruction promised upon entering office, he would have had left a more fondly remembered foreign policy legacy.
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Your comment says it all about Biden. He was a Nothingburger.
So you think rejecting the domino theory with regards to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan would have led to him being fondly remembered do you? You think anyone actually applied the domino theory to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan?
You are a cretin!
You write as though Biden actually had a part in the authorship of this speech and it’s not just a desperate attempt by Obama to spin his disastrous legacy.
US foreign policy has been a calamity ever since the Clintons got involved. Hopefully a note of realism might now be injected.
I couldn’t have put it better!
You write “his administration has effectively discouraged [its allies] from taking on the responsibilities and consequences of their own defence, as exemplified by … Israel’s repeated flouting of Washington’s demands for restraint.”
You have it upside down. Israel flouted Washington’s demands for restraint in Rafah and in Lebanon precisely because it knew better than the administration what was required for its own defence, and took responsibility of it. Successfully, as it turned out. To their credit, the administration officials that are currently giving farewell interviews, are admitting that they were wrong. They also realized it earlier in private, and therefore did not carry out their threats of reducing support following Israel’s “flouting their demands” – and this, again, is to their and Biden’s credit.
Biden’s Legacy!
I think Biden, or whoever was advising him, made a huge miscalculation. At the end of the day, America made a devil’s deal with the Saudis. While this arrangement may have been a smart strategic move in the 1970s, the fatal mistake was betting the future entirely on the petrodollar.
To keep the Saudis locked in a perpetual crisis mode, the U.S. manufactured the Sunni vs. Shia conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Anyone familiar with Middle Eastern history knows this is a strawman conflict—a fabricated crisis sustained purely to maintain control.
Now, by destabilizing Saudi Arabia’s northern borders—bringing in militant forces from Afghanistan and Iraq to its doorstep—the U.S. is sending a thinly veiled threat:
“Stay in position, or we will unleash chaos at your borders.”
But every decision has unintended consequences. By moving militant groups closer to Saudi Arabia, the U.S. has also brought them to Israel’s borders.
If the Saudis were to make a deal with Iran tomorrow, Israel would become isolated, and Saudi Arabia—not Israel—could emerge as the true power center of the Middle East. This is likely the real legacy of Biden’s administration—a Cold War-era divide-and-conquer strategy gone wrong (just like what the U.S. did to Russia in the 1980s).
However, what Washington failed to anticipate was that the Saudis and Iranians might communicate through Russia and China—especially with China stepping into Middle Eastern diplomacy, a move no one saw it coming back in the 70s. The U.S. underestimated the intelligence and strategic patience of its rivals.
Biden’s administration tried to manufacture a crisis to keep Saudi Arabia trapped in the petrodollar system and under U.S. control. But in doing so, they also exposed Israel to the same threats.
The true unraveling of the Middle East might not come from Saudi Arabia breaking away—it might come from Israel’s position being fatally weakened. And if that happens, history might not remember Biden as the president who preserved U.S. dominance, but as the one who set in motion the downfall of Israel’s strategic position in the region.
This is the real danger unfolding right now. Trump may not be able to stop kicking the can down anymore!
That is Biden’s legacy!