Ukraine faces decisive months ahead as key allies gear up for crunch elections. While early presidential campaigning in the US and a looming general election in Poland will grab the international headlines, a snap election in Slovakia on 30 September may prove every bit as consequential. 

With Robert Fico — Slovakia’s former prime minister and one of the West’s most outspoken critics of the Ukrainian war effort — poised to win the vote, a change of government in Bratislava could have a profound effect on EU policymaking. Fico has promised that if his party makes it into government “we will not send a single bullet to Ukraine,” proudly proclaiming that “I allow myself to have a different opinion to that of the United States” on the war.  

Fico has also claimed on the campaign trail that “war always comes from the West and peace from the East,” and that “what is happening today is unnecessary killing, it is the emptying of warehouses to force countries to buy more American weapons.” Such statements have resulted in him being blacklisted by Kyiv as a spreader of Russian propaganda.  

Yet the former prime minister spearheads a new brand of Left-wing, anti-American populism that has become a powerful force in Central Europe since the war began. Perceptions that “the Americans occupy us” — as one MP in Fico’s Smer party evocatively put it — are shared with a similar groundswell of anti-Western opinion in the neighbouring Czech Republic.  

Yet Smer has been handed a chance to gain power thanks to the chaos which has engulfed Slovakia’s pro-EU, pro-Western forces. Personal grievances coupled with serious policy errors tore apart a four-party coalition formed after elections in 2020, leaving Fico to capitalise on heightened mistrust in establishment politics. Smer is expected to become the nation’s largest party after this month’s election, with an anticipated 20% of the vote.  

Whatever the specific makeup of the new government, if Smer is the largest party it will likely pursue a foreign policy similar to that of Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary. A halt to until-now generous Slovak arms shipments to Ukraine is Fico’s central electoral pledge, while the arrival on the scene of another Orbán-style government prepared to obstruct EU aid efforts for Ukraine would create a serious headache. That is particularly the case as Brussels struggles to win support for both short and long-term war funding commitments. 

Victory for Fico would also amplify Orbán’s scepticism about the overall Western narrative on Ukraine — a scepticism which the Hungarian Prime Minister recently conveyed to Western conservatives during an interview with Tucker Carlson. Orbán portrayed Ukraine’s attempts to win back the territories taken by Russia as ultimately hopeless and claimed that Donald Trump’s promise to end the war quickly makes him “the man who can save the Western world”. 

Like Trump in America and Orbán in Europe, Fico is hated with a passion by establishment forces. But in Slovakia, the pro-Western establishment itself has become so mistrusted that power may soon pass to a man intent on shattering what’s left of European unity on Ukraine. 

Yesterday, the British Government decided to allow plans for China’s “mega-embassy” in London to go ahead. This came amid reports that the Royal Mint site in the City — which China bought in 2018 — is located close to vital fibre optic cables used for sending sensitive information in the financial district. But ahead of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to China, the decision shows just how tricky it is to carry out effective diplomacy from a position of weakness.

Even in its moment of triumph, Chinese state media continued to hint that the Prime Minister’s visit — which looks set to take place next week — was not guaranteed. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said today that “providing support and convenience for the construction of diplomatic premises is an international obligation of host countries.”

Guo’s statement laid down a formal marker but avoided political messaging. That came in a column in Global Times, a nationalist outlet affiliated to the People’s Daily, which put the United Kingdom in its place. The paper said that “Chinese experts welcomed the progress” because it signalled “a shift of the UK’s China policy from one of overpoliticisation to a more pragmatic stance”. It quoted Wang Hanyi, a research fellow at the China-UK Center for Cultural Exchange at Shanghai International Studies University, who said that it marks “a phased victory of pragmatic and rational diplomacy over an over-securitised mindset”.

Never mind that the Chinese Communist Party puts politics at the core of everything. Global Times, which is President Xi Jinping’s mouthpiece for these purposes, also quoted the scholar as noting that “honouring international obligations and respecting sovereignty are prerequisites for the healthy development of China-UK relations”. In that case, what else could the British Government have done? Approval of the embassy “would create favourable conditions for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s potential visit to China”. Beijing had to keep implying that it was not at all a done deal.

Usefully for China, the decision was also a reminder that attempts to “securitise” or “politicise” cooperation issues will “ultimately backfire on those pursuing them”, according to Wang. That is meant to deter China critics in Britain, including Conservative MPs such as Iain Duncan Smith and Alicia Kearns, former chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. Beijing and its emissaries scorn them for “zero-sum thinking” and a “Cold War mentality”.

The British Government can take comfort in assurances from the intelligence services that its security concerns can be assuaged. Nonetheless, MI5 boss Ken McCallum and GCHQ head Anne Keast-Butler conceded in a letter yesterday that “it is not realistic to expect to be able wholly to eliminate each and every potential risk.”

Ultimately, the project could not fail. Xi was invested in its success and had raised it personally with the PM, elevating the dispute to a matter of prestige on which Beijing could not back down. According to Reuters, Starmer hopes to reset China-UK relations and revive a “golden era” of dialogue during next week’s visit accompanied by British business leaders.

The question is whether, in classic Chinese diplomatic style, Xi will now seek more gains. China is having a moment at Davos and on the international stage, thanks to the chaos and disarray among its adversaries. With Europe and Nato focused on Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, Beijing will continue to evade scrutiny in the meantime.

Domestically, the practical security challenges of the Chinese embassy in London are years away, considering that there will be some legal wrangling for the foreseeable future. But the immediate political lessons are bleak. This was a case where there was no satisfactory outcome. On a more positive note, this allows China to combine its seven London premises into one site, possibly making it easier for MI5 to deal with. For now, it also seems to have stopped an already difficult Chinese regime from becoming more hostile. And yet with a 20,000 square-metre plot — its largest Europe mission — in the heart of London, Beijing is unlikely to cease being a diplomatic headache any time soon.