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June 2, 2023 - 6:00pm
As a meeting of foreign ministers from the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries takes place in Cape Town ahead of the 15th annual BRICS summit, the Western media has focused on a pointless back-and-forth over whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will be arrested when he attends the latter event. He won’t be, and now journalists are ignoring changes taking place that could prove historic.
The foreign ministers currently visiting South Africa have been dropping hints as to what will be discussed this August. Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar laid out the general theme when he stated that the gathering must “send out a strong message that the world is multipolar, that it is rebalancing and that old ways cannot address new situations”.
The BRICS alliance has long been about how best to help its member states grow and develop. Until now, this development has been assumed to be driven by the Western powers, with the BRICS countries riding on their coattails. But as Jaishankar’s statement makes clear, this is no longer the case. The BRICS states are increasingly intent on finding their own voice and cutting their own path — and, with a rapidly expanding membership, there is every reason to think that they might succeed in this regard.
One way these countries could chart a new course is through the introduction of a BRICS currency that might partly replace the US dollar. Some have compared it to when the euro started to be discussed in Europe.
It is hard to assess the viability of an alternative currency without knowing vaguely what it might look like. But foreign ministers have already started dropping hints in this direction. Reports from South Africa suggest that the plan might be to centre the currency on the New Development Bank (NDB), which would act as a clearing house. This seems to suggest that the NDB would become the BRICS equivalent of the IMF.
The Russian Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, offered more clues. He said that rather than thinking of it as an alternative currency, he “would probably call it a payment unit inside the BRICS countries”. If he is to be believed, then the BRICS currency will initially settle trade between BRICS countries. This could, in theory, create the conditions for firmer monetary relations between the member states — some sort of peg, for example, like the pre-euro European Exchange Rate Mechanism — to grow organically.
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SubscribeSo, how many of the BRIICS have open capital markets, free floating exchange rates, or a trusted rule of law? Even if they try, they will fail. End of.
USA’s use of sanctions and confiscating assets might make some less than transparent countries reassess whether it is still safe to leave their money in Western states. This might just be the beginning but if there are signs of success, their system might grow in popularity.
As you say, trusted rule of law is the key thing here, but lately that trust has been eroded in our systems vis-a-vis the money-laundering side of things. As it is obvious that China is happy to do business with pretty much anyone, it is possible that a lot of those countries I mentioned with a less than transparent system might view the BRICS as a safer bet, rather than worrying whether the USA might suddenly turn on them for one reason or another.
Early days yet either way
But China is not happy to do business with “pretty much anyone” is it ? They threw a hissy fit when Australia questioned the origins of Covid and blocked coal imports from Australia. I understand they’ve now had to scrap that policy as it hurt them far more than it did Australia. Genius !
Sorry, I should have been clearer. By pretty much anyone, I was more referring to countries that launder their economy wholesale through places like UK, Panama, channel Islands, etc or keep assets in west in general. As you say, when Oz started pushing back, suddenly China changes tack with them.
I was thinking more of Africa and possibly Latin America. China was doing business with Sudan regardless of their foreign policy and human rights, so it’s possible a brics currency will be attractive to non democracies (of which there are more than democracies).
However, early days yet as these countries may push back like Oz for one reason or another
Sorry, I should have been clearer. By pretty much anyone, I was more referring to countries that launder their economy wholesale through places like UK, Panama, channel Islands, etc or keep assets in west in general. As you say, when Oz started pushing back, suddenly China changes tack with them.
I was thinking more of Africa and possibly Latin America. China was doing business with Sudan regardless of their foreign policy and human rights, so it’s possible a brics currency will be attractive to non democracies (of which there are more than democracies).
However, early days yet as these countries may push back like Oz for one reason or another
Biden is talking about sanctions for Uganda because he doesn’t like their LGBT laws. Apparently he is emperor of the world. Just in case you’re wondering why the world wants out from under the dollar.
But China is not happy to do business with “pretty much anyone” is it ? They threw a hissy fit when Australia questioned the origins of Covid and blocked coal imports from Australia. I understand they’ve now had to scrap that policy as it hurt them far more than it did Australia. Genius !
Biden is talking about sanctions for Uganda because he doesn’t like their LGBT laws. Apparently he is emperor of the world. Just in case you’re wondering why the world wants out from under the dollar.
So if a large majority of the world’s population and economy move away from the $ and decide to do their own thing, it has zero chance of success. You sound like a man who believes sanctions are going to cripple Russia
Your comment about the rule of law is funny. Ask Trump about the law, or his supporters in jail for protesting a possibility doggy election. So much for the rule of law
Ask Russians who had assets stolen by Western governments about the rule of law
Ask truck drivers in Canada about the rule of law
The money you have in your bank account is yours only so long as you agree with your government, the rule of law LOL
China is facing a demographic timebomb, and now that the west has clamped down on its IP theft and currency manipulation it will be much harder for it to grow in the manner it has over the last few decades.
Russia has got itself into a quagmire in Ukraine, much worse than anything either the yanks or Soviets faced in Afghanistan.
South Africa is a basket case and can’t even keep the lights on.
Despite being a BRICS member India is much more aligned with the west, with it being in the Quad, business interests throughout the Commonwealth and constant border skirmishes with China.
I just don’t see it as much as of a threat as Pilkington does personally. BRICS may curry favour with a few corrupt dictators in Africa and the Middle East, but it simply doesn’t hold much sway over most developed nations that make up the bulk of the worlds economy
China has better demographics than the average country in the West, you need to be delusional to miss it, stop listening to people like Peter Zeihan, he’s a clown selling hopeium
I will agree with your South Africa claim, it turns out that diversity is not South Africa’s greatest strength, who knew. who could have predicted this
Chinas average age is similar to that of America and most western nations (within a year or so), however due to its one child policy it is ageing much more quickly. Coupled with a much lower fertility rate (below 1.3 compared to around 1.6 for most western nations) and very little inward immigration then Chinas demographics look much worse going forward than the west.
With a GDP per capita around a quarter of the UKs it also doesn’t have the wealth to support an ever increasing ratio of pensioners to workers.
Yes, this is your problem, you only focus on average age
You should wonder about the smart fraction too
You should ask yourself why all the smartest people queue up to go the the USA and not China, Russia, Brazil, India or South Africa. Indeed, just why they queue up to leave the BRICS countries.
US demographics are way better than China’s. It’s population is still growing and will continue to do so. It will continue to attract talented people from other countries.
So what should I focus on when discussing a countries future demographics if not the average age, fertility rate and immigration levels?
If two countries have a similar average age, yet one has a lower fertility rate and lower levels of immigration then it stands to reason that countries population will age much more quickly than the other. Seeing as on a per capita basis China is only around a quarter as wealthy as most western nations then it suggests it could have problems looking after that many elderly unless something changes significantly
You should ask yourself why all the smartest people queue up to go the the USA and not China, Russia, Brazil, India or South Africa. Indeed, just why they queue up to leave the BRICS countries.
US demographics are way better than China’s. It’s population is still growing and will continue to do so. It will continue to attract talented people from other countries.
So what should I focus on when discussing a countries future demographics if not the average age, fertility rate and immigration levels?
If two countries have a similar average age, yet one has a lower fertility rate and lower levels of immigration then it stands to reason that countries population will age much more quickly than the other. Seeing as on a per capita basis China is only around a quarter as wealthy as most western nations then it suggests it could have problems looking after that many elderly unless something changes significantly
Yes, this is your problem, you only focus on average age
You should wonder about the smart fraction too
You are clearly not interested in facts. Demographic facts are pretty much undisputed. The only likely errors here are the Chinese faking their numbers to make them look bigger. But that’s just par for the course for them.
I am only interested in facts
Pick a random western city and take a walk around it at night time, then do the came in a random Chinese city, then talk of demographics
800+ people will be murdered in Chicago this year, whats the number for a similar sized city in China ?
You ignore too much
Missing the point. We’re talking about the total populations and which direction those are headed here. Not race or culture. Not sure why you feel the need to try to make it about that.
You are deflecting yet again (no surprise there) and not owning up to the fact that your “facts” about population trends in the US vs Chian are simply untrue.
There are plenty of safe Western cities.
For what it’s worth, I doubt there are reliable statistics for anything in China.
You know full well I was discussing the forecast ageing population of China vs the west when talking of future demographics rather than the ethnic make up of the population
Missing the point. We’re talking about the total populations and which direction those are headed here. Not race or culture. Not sure why you feel the need to try to make it about that.
You are deflecting yet again (no surprise there) and not owning up to the fact that your “facts” about population trends in the US vs Chian are simply untrue.
There are plenty of safe Western cities.
For what it’s worth, I doubt there are reliable statistics for anything in China.
You know full well I was discussing the forecast ageing population of China vs the west when talking of future demographics rather than the ethnic make up of the population
I am only interested in facts
Pick a random western city and take a walk around it at night time, then do the came in a random Chinese city, then talk of demographics
800+ people will be murdered in Chicago this year, whats the number for a similar sized city in China ?
You ignore too much
Chinas average age is similar to that of America and most western nations (within a year or so), however due to its one child policy it is ageing much more quickly. Coupled with a much lower fertility rate (below 1.3 compared to around 1.6 for most western nations) and very little inward immigration then Chinas demographics look much worse going forward than the west.
With a GDP per capita around a quarter of the UKs it also doesn’t have the wealth to support an ever increasing ratio of pensioners to workers.
You are clearly not interested in facts. Demographic facts are pretty much undisputed. The only likely errors here are the Chinese faking their numbers to make them look bigger. But that’s just par for the course for them.
‘China’s facing a demographic time bomb’.
And Britain isn’t?! Births to British mothers are at an all-time low. The true population is in decline and only massive, socially destabilising immigration is disguising it.
What a bizarre comment. “The true population”.
There’s only one population – whoever’s in the country. Sadly including a huge number of illegals.
There’s a rather unpleasant undertone to the comment. You should reflect on the fact that some of the immigrant groups in the UK (Indians for one) are out-achieving the native Britons (or whatever we’re allowed to call ourselves these days). We may not like this. But in the end, there’s only one thing we can do about that – get smarter, work harder and generally up our game and tolerate less needless welfare and slacking,
There is only one population, and that is increasing despite the lower fertility rate. Whether that level of immigration is sensible or desirable is a different argument
What a bizarre comment. “The true population”.
There’s only one population – whoever’s in the country. Sadly including a huge number of illegals.
There’s a rather unpleasant undertone to the comment. You should reflect on the fact that some of the immigrant groups in the UK (Indians for one) are out-achieving the native Britons (or whatever we’re allowed to call ourselves these days). We may not like this. But in the end, there’s only one thing we can do about that – get smarter, work harder and generally up our game and tolerate less needless welfare and slacking,
There is only one population, and that is increasing despite the lower fertility rate. Whether that level of immigration is sensible or desirable is a different argument
You are somewhat correct. But the rate at which ideological politics is leading the West to attack India, along with Soros toolkits to bring down a democratic government is not going to make India break from BRICS. People here tend to forget that in 1971 the US and UK were sending their navies against India and in favour of Pakistan. Even in 2020 India fought China alone. As Dr Jaishankar said our relationship with China is not ” normal” but that doesn’t mean we will give up diplomatic multi polar alignments just to become a Western Stooge.
As for the Commonwealth it’s mostly a meaningless grouping for Indians.
My quick Googling suggests that there are only around 50k Indians living in China, whereas 600k moved to England last year alone, and I’d wager America has just as many or maybe more. Throw in constant border skirmishes and I just don’t see India abandoning the west in favour of the Chinese.
I also haven’t seen any evidence of the west attacking India, in fact most have gone out of their way to offer thousands of visas, increase trade and investment and invite them to join organisations such as the QUAD
This is your problem, you see endless immigration as a win. Its not
I’ve never said anything of the sort as I’m reasonably anti immigration (rather hypocritically for an expat). Please refrain from resorting to telling lies in order to make a point, it implies you don’t have an opinion worry respecting in the first place
I’ve never said anything of the sort as I’m reasonably anti immigration (rather hypocritically for an expat). Please refrain from resorting to telling lies in order to make a point, it implies you don’t have an opinion worry respecting in the first place
Withdraw those visas then. The West needs Indian skilled workers and markets. Read history and you will know that the West has since 1947 been anti India and pro Pakistan in its foreign policy. Indians know that.
As for Quad it’s only Abe and Japan and to some extent Trump who got India into it. However if Biden tries to tie Quad to NATO India will leave. Non alignment is the axiom of Indian foreign policy.
India also needs a market for those skilled workers to go to, otherwise they’d have a glut of graduates and no work for them. It’s a reciprocal agreement, to imply it only benefits one side is nonsense.
India will do its best to straddle its foreign policy to the benefit of India and there’s nothing wrong with that. However if for some reason they had to choose I still believe they’d choose to align with the west over the rest of BRICS
We taxpayers in India pay a lot to get these techies trained in premium engineering institutes. Then they ditch and go and settle abroad as it suits Western corporates to pay them cheap and keep themselves profitable.We have a big economy and can accommodate them easily.
We will never ever align with a Western bloc like Japan has. You have to read Indian history to understand how much we distrust Neo colonial linkages. Start with reading about the drain of wealth under British rule which destroyed Indian industry and made it a raw materials colony.
India is not comfortable with China in BRICS but expect Indonesia and Vietnam to join in soon, to keep it like the EU as a multipolar bloc.
We taxpayers in India pay a lot to get these techies trained in premium engineering institutes. Then they ditch and go and settle abroad as it suits Western corporates to pay them cheap and keep themselves profitable.We have a big economy and can accommodate them easily.
We will never ever align with a Western bloc like Japan has. You have to read Indian history to understand how much we distrust Neo colonial linkages. Start with reading about the drain of wealth under British rule which destroyed Indian industry and made it a raw materials colony.
India is not comfortable with China in BRICS but expect Indonesia and Vietnam to join in soon, to keep it like the EU as a multipolar bloc.
India also needs a market for those skilled workers to go to, otherwise they’d have a glut of graduates and no work for them. It’s a reciprocal agreement, to imply it only benefits one side is nonsense.
India will do its best to straddle its foreign policy to the benefit of India and there’s nothing wrong with that. However if for some reason they had to choose I still believe they’d choose to align with the west over the rest of BRICS
This is your problem, you see endless immigration as a win. Its not
Withdraw those visas then. The West needs Indian skilled workers and markets. Read history and you will know that the West has since 1947 been anti India and pro Pakistan in its foreign policy. Indians know that.
As for Quad it’s only Abe and Japan and to some extent Trump who got India into it. However if Biden tries to tie Quad to NATO India will leave. Non alignment is the axiom of Indian foreign policy.
My quick Googling suggests that there are only around 50k Indians living in China, whereas 600k moved to England last year alone, and I’d wager America has just as many or maybe more. Throw in constant border skirmishes and I just don’t see India abandoning the west in favour of the Chinese.
I also haven’t seen any evidence of the west attacking India, in fact most have gone out of their way to offer thousands of visas, increase trade and investment and invite them to join organisations such as the QUAD
The average age in China is 1 year less than in the US. Europe however needs to start making babies.
Currently yes, but China is ageing much more quickly than those nations so that will soon reverse.
Currently yes, but China is ageing much more quickly than those nations so that will soon reverse.
China has better demographics than the average country in the West, you need to be delusional to miss it, stop listening to people like Peter Zeihan, he’s a clown selling hopeium
I will agree with your South Africa claim, it turns out that diversity is not South Africa’s greatest strength, who knew. who could have predicted this
‘China’s facing a demographic time bomb’.
And Britain isn’t?! Births to British mothers are at an all-time low. The true population is in decline and only massive, socially destabilising immigration is disguising it.
You are somewhat correct. But the rate at which ideological politics is leading the West to attack India, along with Soros toolkits to bring down a democratic government is not going to make India break from BRICS. People here tend to forget that in 1971 the US and UK were sending their navies against India and in favour of Pakistan. Even in 2020 India fought China alone. As Dr Jaishankar said our relationship with China is not ” normal” but that doesn’t mean we will give up diplomatic multi polar alignments just to become a Western Stooge.
As for the Commonwealth it’s mostly a meaningless grouping for Indians.
The average age in China is 1 year less than in the US. Europe however needs to start making babies.
Exactly. Doyle’s in a John Boltonesque fantasy world on this one.
Russia is self-sufficient in oil and food, so sanctions cannot cripple their economy. The amount of money they can get for their oil is restricted by the West’s sanctions, their manufacturing and production are significantly dependant upon Western microchips, their cars and top-line missiles need these chips. Western sanctions are significantly hurting Russia and limiting its capability for action. Trump was undermined by the Liberal establishment / deep state from the begining – the constant stream of lies about his relationship with Russia and that ‘evidence’ would shortly be forthcoming. Hint: it never did. Although I believe that Biden’s election was free and fair, Trump’s disbelief of this is entirely rational. As for the ‘theft’ of assets, in the UK these have not been stolen but have been frozen for the duration.
Well said. How few of these armchair critics with their adolescent hatred of the US know the difference between sequestration and confiscation. For the avoidance of doubt, countries without proper rule of law – like China and Russia – don’t bother with freezing assets. They just confiscate them.
Right bur Russias GDP is only a little bigger than Spain’s. Of course the mix is as you say different. But the lack of development and a small internal market make it weak.
Well said. How few of these armchair critics with their adolescent hatred of the US know the difference between sequestration and confiscation. For the avoidance of doubt, countries without proper rule of law – like China and Russia – don’t bother with freezing assets. They just confiscate them.
Right bur Russias GDP is only a little bigger than Spain’s. Of course the mix is as you say different. But the lack of development and a small internal market make it weak.
China is facing a demographic timebomb, and now that the west has clamped down on its IP theft and currency manipulation it will be much harder for it to grow in the manner it has over the last few decades.
Russia has got itself into a quagmire in Ukraine, much worse than anything either the yanks or Soviets faced in Afghanistan.
South Africa is a basket case and can’t even keep the lights on.
Despite being a BRICS member India is much more aligned with the west, with it being in the Quad, business interests throughout the Commonwealth and constant border skirmishes with China.
I just don’t see it as much as of a threat as Pilkington does personally. BRICS may curry favour with a few corrupt dictators in Africa and the Middle East, but it simply doesn’t hold much sway over most developed nations that make up the bulk of the worlds economy
Exactly. Doyle’s in a John Boltonesque fantasy world on this one.
Russia is self-sufficient in oil and food, so sanctions cannot cripple their economy. The amount of money they can get for their oil is restricted by the West’s sanctions, their manufacturing and production are significantly dependant upon Western microchips, their cars and top-line missiles need these chips. Western sanctions are significantly hurting Russia and limiting its capability for action. Trump was undermined by the Liberal establishment / deep state from the begining – the constant stream of lies about his relationship with Russia and that ‘evidence’ would shortly be forthcoming. Hint: it never did. Although I believe that Biden’s election was free and fair, Trump’s disbelief of this is entirely rational. As for the ‘theft’ of assets, in the UK these have not been stolen but have been frozen for the duration.
No, Mike, you do not just win an argument by just saying ‘end of’. This isn’t a playground.
It not that simple, and it is never ‘end of’. The things you list all evolved in the west (the free-floating exchange rate is a recent phenomenon and only really dates from the 1970s anyway, and even that with caveats). The Federal Government has long interfered with capital markets and the ‘trusted rule of law’ is evaporating before our eyes. Britain had Byzantine and draconian Exchange Controls until the 1980s.
Societies and systems change and evolve through history. The west has no monopoly on progress and its story over the past generation has been largely one of accelerating regression and institutional bloat and decomposition. From the rest of the world, we shall see what we shall see.
Either way, any sense of inherent superiority you may feel as a westerner is going to be put to a hell of a trial over the coming decade.
On the subject of a new reserve currency I would suggest the following: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHZnVdBZJfA
As for a sense of Western strength, I guess everything since 1720 has passed you by.
On the subject of a new reserve currency I would suggest the following: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHZnVdBZJfA
As for a sense of Western strength, I guess everything since 1720 has passed you by.
What you say is true, but the problem with it is that it’s arguable that such things are luxuries that are only affordable in sufficiently wealthy nations and trade blocs. In other words, the cause-effect relationship is the other way around.
I’m not saying this is definitely true mind you, I’m just raising it as a possibility. Many of the assumptions we’ve been using until now about why the West has been in the ascendant for the past few centuries have never really been tested, and they are about to be tested.
The results may turn out to be surprising.
It will be a good thing if they are tested. We can then refocus in the West on the things that are really important and start ditching the luxury belief nonsense like all the multi-gender nonsense. We’ll be tested. But we’ll come back stronger.
It will be a good thing if they are tested. We can then refocus in the West on the things that are really important and start ditching the luxury belief nonsense like all the multi-gender nonsense. We’ll be tested. But we’ll come back stronger.
Agree with you that they can’t set up a rival currency but they don’t need open capital markets, free floating exchange and trusted rule of law to succeed in crosscountry trade especially if the Chinese are buying up commodities around the world. For example China has entered into 40 year agreements with various countries e.g. Quatar for gas, Saudi Arabia for oil, Brasil for soyabeans, Australia for iron ore, Russia for wheet etc all in yuan or infrastructure development. Some very good discussions on youtube on how this will play out over the coming years see for example
Sean Foo on
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYiY2ue7Cms
This month in St Petersburg there will be at least 84 nations gathering to talk about how they can go to a new gold backed currency system so they can begin trading with each other through it.
USA’s use of sanctions and confiscating assets might make some less than transparent countries reassess whether it is still safe to leave their money in Western states. This might just be the beginning but if there are signs of success, their system might grow in popularity.
As you say, trusted rule of law is the key thing here, but lately that trust has been eroded in our systems vis-a-vis the money-laundering side of things. As it is obvious that China is happy to do business with pretty much anyone, it is possible that a lot of those countries I mentioned with a less than transparent system might view the BRICS as a safer bet, rather than worrying whether the USA might suddenly turn on them for one reason or another.
Early days yet either way
So if a large majority of the world’s population and economy move away from the $ and decide to do their own thing, it has zero chance of success. You sound like a man who believes sanctions are going to cripple Russia
Your comment about the rule of law is funny. Ask Trump about the law, or his supporters in jail for protesting a possibility doggy election. So much for the rule of law
Ask Russians who had assets stolen by Western governments about the rule of law
Ask truck drivers in Canada about the rule of law
The money you have in your bank account is yours only so long as you agree with your government, the rule of law LOL
No, Mike, you do not just win an argument by just saying ‘end of’. This isn’t a playground.
It not that simple, and it is never ‘end of’. The things you list all evolved in the west (the free-floating exchange rate is a recent phenomenon and only really dates from the 1970s anyway, and even that with caveats). The Federal Government has long interfered with capital markets and the ‘trusted rule of law’ is evaporating before our eyes. Britain had Byzantine and draconian Exchange Controls until the 1980s.
Societies and systems change and evolve through history. The west has no monopoly on progress and its story over the past generation has been largely one of accelerating regression and institutional bloat and decomposition. From the rest of the world, we shall see what we shall see.
Either way, any sense of inherent superiority you may feel as a westerner is going to be put to a hell of a trial over the coming decade.
What you say is true, but the problem with it is that it’s arguable that such things are luxuries that are only affordable in sufficiently wealthy nations and trade blocs. In other words, the cause-effect relationship is the other way around.
I’m not saying this is definitely true mind you, I’m just raising it as a possibility. Many of the assumptions we’ve been using until now about why the West has been in the ascendant for the past few centuries have never really been tested, and they are about to be tested.
The results may turn out to be surprising.
Agree with you that they can’t set up a rival currency but they don’t need open capital markets, free floating exchange and trusted rule of law to succeed in crosscountry trade especially if the Chinese are buying up commodities around the world. For example China has entered into 40 year agreements with various countries e.g. Quatar for gas, Saudi Arabia for oil, Brasil for soyabeans, Australia for iron ore, Russia for wheet etc all in yuan or infrastructure development. Some very good discussions on youtube on how this will play out over the coming years see for example
Sean Foo on
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYiY2ue7Cms
This month in St Petersburg there will be at least 84 nations gathering to talk about how they can go to a new gold backed currency system so they can begin trading with each other through it.
So, how many of the BRIICS have open capital markets, free floating exchange rates, or a trusted rule of law? Even if they try, they will fail. End of.
Yes. We in the Global South are sick of the unilateral poodle politics of Europe. We don’t trust the future US administrations not to do to others what they have done to Russia. It’s simply a practical approach to back national currency with gold and not dollars. So reserves can’t be frozen.
I, for one, do not blame anyone from the Global South taking issue with Western attitudes that can be summed up as saying: Yes, we know you all want to be wealthy too, but there’s global warming now, so you can’t.
The collective attitude of western policymakers to other nations is a disgrace on this point, quite apart from the numerous idiotic failures of statecraft elsewhere, rightly exemplied by the present Ukraine War, as you point out.
Global warming is a natural phenomenon.
CO2 is an innocuous gas that is vital to life on earth.
The war on CO2 is a grift.
Countries like India have every right to progress and they will.
Those pushing the AGW scam are criminals and need to be held to account
Stop spreading the lie.
Global warming is a natural phenomenon.
CO2 is an innocuous gas that is vital to life on earth.
The war on CO2 is a grift.
Countries like India have every right to progress and they will.
Those pushing the AGW scam are criminals and need to be held to account
Stop spreading the lie.
What is this so-called “Global South” ? I suggest it’s even more fictitious than the BRICS.
The idea that everyone below a geographic line is as ridiculous as the the belief that all people from a given country, race or gender must think the same way.
For the record, India is north of the Equator, while Australia and New Zealand are south of it.
I, for one, do not blame anyone from the Global South taking issue with Western attitudes that can be summed up as saying: Yes, we know you all want to be wealthy too, but there’s global warming now, so you can’t.
The collective attitude of western policymakers to other nations is a disgrace on this point, quite apart from the numerous idiotic failures of statecraft elsewhere, rightly exemplied by the present Ukraine War, as you point out.
What is this so-called “Global South” ? I suggest it’s even more fictitious than the BRICS.
The idea that everyone below a geographic line is as ridiculous as the the belief that all people from a given country, race or gender must think the same way.
For the record, India is north of the Equator, while Australia and New Zealand are south of it.
Yes. We in the Global South are sick of the unilateral poodle politics of Europe. We don’t trust the future US administrations not to do to others what they have done to Russia. It’s simply a practical approach to back national currency with gold and not dollars. So reserves can’t be frozen.
Noise.
Yet another article on this nonsense.
There is no “common voice” amongst these countries. Nor is any of them an example to the rest of the world that anyone should try to emulate.
The fact that all the rich people in these countries keep their money in the Western countries they affect to despise tells you everything you need to know.
Also the fact that it’s the 15th annual summit and they’re still gasbagging about the same things. I have done business in all of them and they are further apart now than , say, 2012 which was peak BRICness as an investment idea in my opinion.
Didn’t Orwell write this BRICS+ story as ‘Animal Farm’? Hmmmm, I think I see some similarities….
Didn’t Orwell write this BRICS+ story as ‘Animal Farm’? Hmmmm, I think I see some similarities….
Exactly – what this writer is describing is a mechanism for Barter. They trade their things in ‘£Mortar’, a new currency like thing which holds the BRICS together, haha, sure….
The thing is it is not a Reserve Currency as it is not a store of value or wealth. No Bond Market exists. Likely every event in the Globe and the price will leap about like the Bit Coin. It is not Fungible.
It would be some Euro on Acid…….A ‘Bad Trip’. As soon as Brazil got its £Mortar for the sale of Bauxite to India it would sell them and buy US Treasuries – and if the days between settling the sale, the £Mortar sold for what they were supposed to, Brazil would let out a huge sigh of relief – it did not get Burned on this transaction – but the next one, no telling.
LOOK – Says China, we are going to farm the Gobi desert and get wealthy – so lets hitch up together the ox, horse, camel, llama, bear, ferret, raccoon-dog, gopher, Impala, and goose – and let us together Plow the Desert and make it bloom….
haha – awaiting for approval
I think we know where the ones fired from Twitter ended up…..
No idea what you’re on about. I’ve never used Twitter.
No idea what you’re on about. I’ve never used Twitter.
Also the fact that it’s the 15th annual summit and they’re still gasbagging about the same things. I have done business in all of them and they are further apart now than , say, 2012 which was peak BRICness as an investment idea in my opinion.
Exactly – what this writer is describing is a mechanism for Barter. They trade their things in ‘£Mortar’, a new currency like thing which holds the BRICS together, haha, sure….
The thing is it is not a Reserve Currency as it is not a store of value or wealth. No Bond Market exists. Likely every event in the Globe and the price will leap about like the Bit Coin. It is not Fungible.
It would be some Euro on Acid…….A ‘Bad Trip’. As soon as Brazil got its £Mortar for the sale of Bauxite to India it would sell them and buy US Treasuries – and if the days between settling the sale, the £Mortar sold for what they were supposed to, Brazil would let out a huge sigh of relief – it did not get Burned on this transaction – but the next one, no telling.
LOOK – Says China, we are going to farm the Gobi desert and get wealthy – so lets hitch up together the ox, horse, camel, llama, bear, ferret, raccoon-dog, gopher, Impala, and goose – and let us together Plow the Desert and make it bloom….
haha – awaiting for approval
I think we know where the ones fired from Twitter ended up…..
Noise.
Yet another article on this nonsense.
There is no “common voice” amongst these countries. Nor is any of them an example to the rest of the world that anyone should try to emulate.
The fact that all the rich people in these countries keep their money in the Western countries they affect to despise tells you everything you need to know.
The US news media doesn’t talk about BRICS, so few people understand the importance of this. My guess is that these things will probably be sorting out about this time next year. What I believe is going to happen is nations (particularly in the global South) want to create a common currency backed by gold that they can use to trade with each other. I think there are over 84 nations wanting to do this so far.
I think they will perhaps even use a CBDC for the electronic portion of this trade between nations (as some are testing out now) but only at the central bank level, not for individuals, and smaller transactions. This will basically cut out the US dollar, and Swift system, destroying US global financial hegemony. The dollar will lose its reserve currency status.
Nations will then start to unload USD futures, causing them to discount, and probably a USD collapse. Because there will be nothing holding it up, and the US will no longer be able to print its way out of anything, stimulate its way out of anything, hyper-finance its way to a high GDP with silly knowledge work jobs for women’s study majors, and other clown world jobs, and it will then be forced to bring all it’s war machines and world meddlers back home because there won’t be any more money to fund them.
Then we will find out if the Chinese are as bad as many think they might be. This was all brought on, not by the Chinese, or the Russians, but the Biden administration did this all with their epic blunders. Really it almost seems like they were trying to make this all happen, like they all already own a bunch of land, and commodities all over the world through companies like Blackrock.
The thing is Europe has it’s own version of Swift. If it broke free from vassal state status, it could ascend in the new multipolar world. Macron is already thinking this direction. I think Germany is also looking at bleak times following the US lead, but I don’t think thats’ going to last much longer.
Anything that makes the West pivot from the concept that they can spend their way out of every problem real or imaginary can only be a good thing. The word “Equity” is destroying us from within.
I certainly hope so, and look forward to it. In the medium-term and long-term, it will be very good news for America’s middle class. It’ll have the same purgative effect in Britain too: 25 years in a financialised fantasy world of perverse incentives and stupid, crazy policies is long enough. Time for reality to bite.
Anything that makes the West pivot from the concept that they can spend their way out of every problem real or imaginary can only be a good thing. The word “Equity” is destroying us from within.
I certainly hope so, and look forward to it. In the medium-term and long-term, it will be very good news for America’s middle class. It’ll have the same purgative effect in Britain too: 25 years in a financialised fantasy world of perverse incentives and stupid, crazy policies is long enough. Time for reality to bite.
The US news media doesn’t talk about BRICS, so few people understand the importance of this. My guess is that these things will probably be sorting out about this time next year. What I believe is going to happen is nations (particularly in the global South) want to create a common currency backed by gold that they can use to trade with each other. I think there are over 84 nations wanting to do this so far.
I think they will perhaps even use a CBDC for the electronic portion of this trade between nations (as some are testing out now) but only at the central bank level, not for individuals, and smaller transactions. This will basically cut out the US dollar, and Swift system, destroying US global financial hegemony. The dollar will lose its reserve currency status.
Nations will then start to unload USD futures, causing them to discount, and probably a USD collapse. Because there will be nothing holding it up, and the US will no longer be able to print its way out of anything, stimulate its way out of anything, hyper-finance its way to a high GDP with silly knowledge work jobs for women’s study majors, and other clown world jobs, and it will then be forced to bring all it’s war machines and world meddlers back home because there won’t be any more money to fund them.
Then we will find out if the Chinese are as bad as many think they might be. This was all brought on, not by the Chinese, or the Russians, but the Biden administration did this all with their epic blunders. Really it almost seems like they were trying to make this all happen, like they all already own a bunch of land, and commodities all over the world through companies like Blackrock.
The thing is Europe has it’s own version of Swift. If it broke free from vassal state status, it could ascend in the new multipolar world. Macron is already thinking this direction. I think Germany is also looking at bleak times following the US lead, but I don’t think thats’ going to last much longer.
I am not sure we need to worry so much about the establishment of such a technocratic bloc as far as the currency aspect goes – at least, the non-American nations of the west need not, because they haven’t a reserve currency to lose.
What should concern us is that such a bloc could credibly control most of the planet’s manufacturing capacity, and that is the real threat: the ability of a China-led bloc to gain control of the world through the ability to restrict access to manufactured goods. This is the real danger: the ability to wreak havoc upon the consumer economies of the West.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Western policymakers never really got control of inflation in the 1990s: they just benefitted from the global deflationary effect caused by the re-entry to the global economy of cheap manufacturing on the part of China, and the consequent effect whereby Chinese capital earned from that manufacturing then flooded into global capital markets, causing returns – and interest rates – to fall.
If such a bloc created a sufficiently large internal market for Chinese manufacturing, China then is better placed to control the terms upon which non-bloc members access the bloc’s output: it would not be so reliant on Western demand for its products, and that means we’d be in trouble. The post-pandemic supply chain shocks are a tiny foretaste of how that would play out, should the West face a unified strategic adversary of this kind.
The only solution is strategic repatriation of manufacturing capacity, resources and agriculture. It’s a big ask, and it’s almost certain we won’t achieve it.
I am not sure we need to worry so much about the establishment of such a technocratic bloc as far as the currency aspect goes – at least, the non-American nations of the west need not, because they haven’t a reserve currency to lose.
What should concern us is that such a bloc could credibly control most of the planet’s manufacturing capacity, and that is the real threat: the ability of a China-led bloc to gain control of the world through the ability to restrict access to manufactured goods. This is the real danger: the ability to wreak havoc upon the consumer economies of the West.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Western policymakers never really got control of inflation in the 1990s: they just benefitted from the global deflationary effect caused by the re-entry to the global economy of cheap manufacturing on the part of China, and the consequent effect whereby Chinese capital earned from that manufacturing then flooded into global capital markets, causing returns – and interest rates – to fall.
If such a bloc created a sufficiently large internal market for Chinese manufacturing, China then is better placed to control the terms upon which non-bloc members access the bloc’s output: it would not be so reliant on Western demand for its products, and that means we’d be in trouble. The post-pandemic supply chain shocks are a tiny foretaste of how that would play out, should the West face a unified strategic adversary of this kind.
The only solution is strategic repatriation of manufacturing capacity, resources and agriculture. It’s a big ask, and it’s almost certain we won’t achieve it.
A welcome article, addressing something conspicuously ignored by the MSM cabal. As a side note, big thanks for using ‘agreed to’ in the 7th paragraph instead the widely used ‘agreed’ with no preposition (e.g. ‘the parties agreed a ceasefire’). Every time I see such ignorant degradation of the English language it drives me up the wall. A staple, naturally, of the increasingly tortured, convoluted and euphemistic drivel spewed out by the aforementioned MSM.
A welcome article, addressing something conspicuously ignored by the MSM cabal. As a side note, big thanks for using ‘agreed to’ in the 7th paragraph instead the widely used ‘agreed’ with no preposition (e.g. ‘the parties agreed a ceasefire’). Every time I see such ignorant degradation of the English language it drives me up the wall. A staple, naturally, of the increasingly tortured, convoluted and euphemistic drivel spewed out by the aforementioned MSM.
Mr Biden is an extremely antagonistic President, entirely preferring confrontation to diplomacy. The USA is now essentially at war with Russia, and very unfriendly to China. The USA is not a genuine friend to smaller rising nations, mainly interested in exploiting them. The US policies and sanctions (nominally aimed at Russia) harm Europe. It is therefore entirely to be expected that the BRICS (and many other smaller nations) may see their best interest is to form a separate political, financial and military world group, which will probably be distrustful and unfriendly to the USA. Even Europe is a wavering ally of the USA, having taken the economic damage of sanctions and being first in line if the Ukraine war should escalate. In the long run, the current unfriendly policies of Mr Biden will be seen to be entirely incompetent, foolish and self-harming. The antagonistic attitude of Mr Biden even extends to internal politics: half of the voters are accused of being un-American, and the polarisation of the American People is not diminishing.
Mr Biden is an extremely antagonistic President, entirely preferring confrontation to diplomacy. The USA is now essentially at war with Russia, and very unfriendly to China. The USA is not a genuine friend to smaller rising nations, mainly interested in exploiting them. The US policies and sanctions (nominally aimed at Russia) harm Europe. It is therefore entirely to be expected that the BRICS (and many other smaller nations) may see their best interest is to form a separate political, financial and military world group, which will probably be distrustful and unfriendly to the USA. Even Europe is a wavering ally of the USA, having taken the economic damage of sanctions and being first in line if the Ukraine war should escalate. In the long run, the current unfriendly policies of Mr Biden will be seen to be entirely incompetent, foolish and self-harming. The antagonistic attitude of Mr Biden even extends to internal politics: half of the voters are accused of being un-American, and the polarisation of the American People is not diminishing.
The concept of China and India having their currency and financial power and influence tied in anyway with an economic totalitarian desert that is South Africa, let alone financially anarchic Brazil, and war torn Russia is as likely as them teaming up with the Romford Bottle Bank and The Bank of Toytown!
The concept of China and India having their currency and financial power and influence tied in anyway with an economic totalitarian desert that is South Africa, let alone financially anarchic Brazil, and war torn Russia is as likely as them teaming up with the Romford Bottle Bank and The Bank of Toytown!
Add Kazakhstan and you can call it BRICKS. Add Venezuala and Cuba and you can call it BRICKSVC. It gets messy after a while ….
Add Kazakhstan and you can call it BRICKS. Add Venezuala and Cuba and you can call it BRICKSVC. It gets messy after a while ….
A lot of our muslims se it the way Philip do. They are so happy that the west seems threatened. Brazil and South Africa is underdeveloped corrupt underdog countries. They swing well with other corrupt countries.
A lot of our muslims se it the way Philip do. They are so happy that the west seems threatened. Brazil and South Africa is underdeveloped corrupt underdog countries. They swing well with other corrupt countries.
I the BRIC heads of state are wise, they will compel Vlad the Mad to stand down. If that strategy works, and Putin ceases his aggression, then their collectively applied discipline may establish a beginning in some meaningful, effective alliance.
I the BRIC heads of state are wise, they will compel Vlad the Mad to stand down. If that strategy works, and Putin ceases his aggression, then their collectively applied discipline may establish a beginning in some meaningful, effective alliance.